Coronavirus Bull Market!

This post is not meant to discount the seriousness and human impact of Covid-19. However with all the doom and gloom around the coronavirus I thought I'd post some counters to it:

1. This is not the Spanish Flu where it kills a lot of working age people. The mortality rate in children and youngish (<60) adults appears to be very, very low. This virus is killing mostly people aged >70, and predominantly people with major health issues that tend to be a burden on the healthcare system.
2. It may cause a long(ish) term impact on transfer of trade and products, but it is unlikely they will completely shut down. I'm still ordering electronic components from China and they are still (albeit slowly) arriving.

Is there not a scenario in which these two factors combine to kick off a new bull market? We've been warned for years about the aging population, this seems like a blunt fix for it. How big an impact will capital gains taxes on deceased estates have on the economy if they all hit at once? Additionally, will it force companies who have been outsourcing development and production to other countries to do a lot of that work within their own country? Could this boost employment and stimulate the economy?

This is what I tell myself to help me not do something stupid like sell my stocks. I don't know what will happen, and neither do others. This may be a blip on a great multi-decade bull market or the start of a long term bear market. Either way I'm accumulating and not selling. Now to stop looking at bloody share prices and get back to work....

 

Well might be a bit early to call the start of a bull market but we will come out the other side with the lowest cost of money in history and a massive coordinated global stimulus, the seeds are being planted right now.

 

Heard a stat from the Frazis Capital podcast (i think he has a phd or masters in molecular science/chemistry from Oxford).

Mentioned a few stats big one being that 75 % of deaths in China related to patients not having access to a ventilator.

Also an existing drug trialled on CV with results due in April which shows promising signs.

Death rates in advanced economies SK and Germany significantly lower then China. Ie No deaths from 600 cases in germany.

 

Maybe just the normal cycle of crisis then bull market. Repeat every 10 years.

 

Italy is in lockdown

Coronavirus live updates: all of Italy to be placed under lockdown conditions | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
Coronavirus live updates: all of Italy to be placed under lockdown conditions

 

To be fair, China was dealing with an unknown issue. Three months ago no one had ever heard of Coronavirus!

Other countries have had the benefit of their experience as to how to deal with covid-19.

 

The Democracy countries won't take lessons from a Communist countries. You must have rocks in your head to think we are capable to put our difference system aside and save the humanity.

Must be asking the wrong crowd.

 

Plenty of deaths in Italy/Iran.

I think what most people are discounting is that this is in the initial stages of playing out in Australia and so our health system is coping initially with the relatively low numbers. Wait until you have a rise in numbers and the numbers of serious/critical cases starts to climb and overwhelm the health system. (i.e. not enough oxygen or even beds). This is what China has had to contend with.

Worth doing some due-dilligence on the impact caused to people who don't die, highly disruptive. It's not just about deaths.

 

Will we be able to replicate China's Quarantine controls but?

 

Its also the tail end of summer in Australia, so our time may be more towards July and August