Coronavirus and property values

I am willing to bet it will not be over in 2 weeks.

Ebola, Swine Flu, SARs all spread fast and killed fast, hence very self limiting as patients did not have enough time to transmit the disease before falling to sick to move around. Quarantine measures work very well with these type of diseases.

nCov spreads like flu and cold, you can be spreading it around town the whole week or two you are incubating it, without any symptoms showing. In fact recent german case study showed very high viral load even after symptoms resolved, which means unlike flu, even after you get well and return to work you could still spread the residual virus around!! (this is not media, its a recent published scientific study paper)

Wuhan is likely at the peak, rest of China and the world? I am not so sure...

Media also has reports of a fast track vaccine and antiviral drugs etc etc, if only it were that easy...

 

Chinese tourists scramble to extend Australian visas amid coronavirus fears

Quote..
In the 12 months to September 2019, more than 1.3 million Chinese nationals visited Australia — about 950,000 of which came for holidays or to visit family.

Let's hope that our Government can show some compassion towards the tourist's that are at serious risk first on the plane trip back then within China..

I know the Lady that runs New Zealand will..

 

They are asking for visa extensions in other asian countries as well.

So long they aren't flying back to Wuhan dont see why they should stay here. After all Beijing and Shanghai only have 1 case of death so far in a week, only 1 death each city from this virus, just 1 each. The car crash in Sydney tunnel has killed 1 already today!! Beijing and Shanghai have in total a population almost double ours as well. Why should visa regulations be changed when they do have a safe place to return to?

 

From what i have read so far with this if the xxxxxxx number of people get this disease and they pass it on too just one person then the disease will just go away..

''IF'' this disease is as it seems highly contagious and by the time people turn up at hospital then they will have contaminated everyone all the way too the long waiting lines outside the hospital ..

Then you have a process from what my 2 gentlemen doctors mates that live a few doors for 30 years down the street told me yesterday about a process called ''Contact-Tracing'' for tourist's that list everyone they have interacted with in the last few weeks..

Only my opinion but if you think technology will eradicate this in the short term then it may pay for the Government to rethink everything as the Gold Coast has 4 in GC Hospital right now so how many have been in their path over the past week..

 

There is only one difference the Africans were more transparent about the disease and the impacts. They worked hand in hand with the WHO and other agencies.

The Chinese are hiding things..and making things worse...

 

Pretty much this the risk is minimal on return but can we have it both ways? If Shanghai and Beijing are such low risk why are we not letting people in from there, also the other conundrum is that HK is far greater risk than many parts of mainland China but we have no restrictions in place

 

Yup pretty sure they have passed it on already. There is a case just reported a wuhan tour group in Singapore passed on the virus to a few sales staff. They even went to nearby malaysia to stay a Tourfew days. The group has since gone back to china.

So i fully expect more community cases to show up in GC over the next week or so. Those businesses they visited would have staff incubating the virus to other tourists and customers right now and it will then spread to Brisbane eventually. U cant keep up contact tracing and quarantine once too many people get it. Just be prepared.

 

Doesnt matter where u stick ur money, major SC have higher overheads too, bigger retailers can shutdown easy too.

 

I wish i had your confidence. Everything i see tells me this is not normal, it's not like SARS and it has the potential to become an extremely serious pandemic.

If anything i think the media are downplaying the impact.

There are lots of fairly re-assuring "keep calm" type reports on the news.

These rather fly in the face of the official actions (country wide evacuation of foreigners, military isolation and quarantine by countries outside china, aus government warning they may not be able to conduct more air evacuations etc).

2 days ago the Chinese were celebrating the opening of their hospital built in 8 days etc. Two days later, today, we see reports they are pressing sports stadiums and industrial premises into service as emergency treatment and containment centres, and supposedly rounding up people house to house, turning lifts off in tower blocks to avoid people getting out, etc.

Even on the Japanese cruise ship someone was waving a banner from their balcony saying they were running out of medicines, and it's now gone through at least 60 people on board from a single case in only a week or so.

All the above is fact - no need for hype.

I hope it is over in 2 weeks but i imagine we could see quite some disruption to normal life and everyday activities before this is over.

 

It was funny a couple of weeks ago..I was at a meet-up and some one women told be that I was a conspiracy theorist about the Chinese govt shutting down things and all the stuff they do in secret.

Well....now with how they have dealt with the Coronavirus clearly shows this is not the case. The Chinese Communist Government is not to be trusted. They even tried to shut down the poor doctor who raised the issue has now died. Other doctors have died of overwork!

This should be lesson...for the Australian government we should be very careful of China...

Unfortunately this is going to hit China and Australia economically severely.

 

If the fit, young doctor who who publicly identified the coronavirus danger early can die from it (as has been reported) then everyone is at risk if it can't be contained. If he died as a result of something contrary to the report, the actions of the Chinese Govt need to be suspected.

Everyone will have a different opinion but the Australian Govt don't come out of this situation well.

 

100% agree..... even the bloody RBA governor is now commenting on the impact on the economy.

Also agree....about the Australian govt...so long as we have people like Scomo and Peter Dutton...masters of lies....to contend with. Look at the dismal approach to the virus and getting Aussies out.

The Chinese govt has now lost control of the disease because they are too busy trying to save face. Unfortunately...I see this as a common trait and in a crisis...this could be disaster as it is proving now!

 

Coronavirus means budget surplus now unlikely, says former Treasury Secretary Ken Henry - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

The old saying "when China sneezes... Australia catches a cold" now has a new meaning

 

Good little dashboard
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Don't use low current confirmed case numbers outside of the epicenter Hubei province to conclude it's only a localised problem.

It's the rate of change that matters.



Mainland China confirmed cases @ 20 Jan: 278
Other Locations confirmed cases @ 6 Feb: 265

Fast forward 3weeks...

China has the means to be very heavy-handed in terms of trying to controlling its citizens (eg: shut down cities, weld shut entrances to buildings with confirmed cases leaving residents inside)

It can also move very quickly in containment measures (eg: build hospital in a week)

Can countries like Thailand (25 cases), Singapore (30 cases), Vietnam (10 cases) do this?

 

It spreads like flu, containment is futile even in chinas case. We have to ride through it unfortunately. The survivors can then help the rest.

China's numbers are censored, this thing was raging in wuhan already with hospitals full in late nov early dec. Wuhan has 11m population and hubei province 58.5m , do the math , only 30k confirmed cases? That's not even half a percent of the population of wuhan

 

Sample size of confirmed cases outside China is too small at this stage, but it's worth watching the death rate there.

The 2% we've largely been informed is based mostly on confirmed cases and deaths in China. Both these numbers are...uncertain

 

Hence the lack of alarm and urgency in many countries. Even WHO was dwaddling about declaring it a global emergency last week.

I reckon mortality rates are more than that, theres been many deaths reclassified as another disease as per the chinese whistleblower doctor who just died.