Coronavirus and property values

2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence - Wikipedia

Possible but not guaranteed.

 

Dr Steve Keen and the ''True Believers'' who forecast the 40 percent house price falls and unemployment to hit above 20 percent would be thinking even as that forecast was 12 years ago that he will be proven right and as a Australian Economist timing means nothing..

 

Yeah . thats what happened after the 1987 stock market crash , everyone in Perth ,Melbourne and Sydney poured into property and there was some pretty impressive gains , well until Japan went into recession and the big falls in commodity prices helped push us straight into a recession.
The big problems is state and the federal government suddenly see unemployment go up just as the money starts to dry up,at the same time as they need to create jobs and and they are staring at big deficits and seriously need to stop spending.
As people in W.A found out it was property investors that bore the brunt as First Home Owner grants on existing property all but dissapeared and additional taxes for foreign investors were added.

 

If property mkt crashes to 40% then stock should be about 60%. No one would be able to jump into property mkt at such huge loss.

 

That maybe a good thing.

 

Lets see...but...it does the opposite....remember people leverage a lot into property.

 

As I have often posted, China is just Japan 2.0 waiting to happen and our economy and property prices will follow.

As the new cases in Germany have shown, this virus is quite infective during incubation period, but unlike flu and other viruses, surprisingly it is still very infective even after fever is over and symptoms resolving.

IMHO China will not be able to contain this virus as it spreads much like flu. We will probably see Shanghai and Beijing go into lockdown mode pretty soon.

This will be a pretty interesting week for markets I reckon. Keep an eye on the crashing Iron ore prices. Demand for coal and gas will be way down as factories go into an extended shutdown. period.

 

Anecdotally im hearing that many are choosing to go HK for 2 weeks in order to get to Australia, this could be good news for universities and landlords.

 

It's already happening out there.. the longer this goes on the worst the impact will be, right across Australia.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...l-amid-coronavirus-fears-20200203-p53xbx.html

Coronavirus devastates Australian export businesses

 

20k cases and 400+ deaths now. Not looking good, china now asking for supplies from overseas.

 

You can now be exposed to the Novel Coronavirus by attending property auctions!

Coronavirus victims attended Adelaide auction, real estate office closed as precaution

Ray White has now closed their Dulwich office.

 

I'm really not one for conspiracy theories but there are an awful lot of people online saying "its just like flu" however sifting the misinformation from facts can be difficult and there are also a lot of people playing down how quickly this is likely to spread IMHO.

This does seem incredibly infectious and it is likely that there are many more cases in China than they admit, given the statistics from the evacuation flights - several of which seemed to have more than one infected person on board. I don't believe many of the videos that seem to have been posted on line but some will be accurate.

Don't wish to be alarmist...many people will get this and make a good recovery or have a very light illness only.

However it appears to be so infectious - much more so than flu, and much more lethal, with a long progression of illness, and a bg proportion of fairly serious cases.

That cruise in Japan has been going just a few days and the outbreak from it was sourced from a single traveller who left the ship 5 days ago. Already 10 out of 31 people tested on the ship have the virus.

This could be 10 times worse than swine flu, which infected 20% of the worlds population and killed 200,000 people. this could infect a third of the worlds population in a few months if unchecked and kill several million.

Hopefully not though as it may have a negative impact on house prices.

 

Thats exactly whats gonna happen.

It spreads like flu during incubation period when person is well. But unlike flu can still spread after symptoms resolve. And unlike flu the severe illness rate(needing hospitalisation) is much much higher and of course the final mortality rate is around 2percent compared to around 0.05 to 0.1 percent estimate for flu

History has shown flu is not containable, even in a military style quarantine situation. Hence it is reasonable to expect this virus to spread worldwide and infect most of the worlds population as it is a new virus and not just a strain of an older existing virus. hope the mortality rate still remains at 2percent.

This virus is gonna pop asset bubbles all over the world. Hard reset.

 

British scientist makes breakthrough in race for coronavirus vaccine: Sky

Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
29,258.07 +450.44 (1.56%)
5 Feb, 2:54 pm GMT-5 ·

i was watching a US China based company a few hours ago and the minute the recent news about the vaccine broke world news outlets the dow went into overdrive ..

Tesla tumbles as coronavirus weighs on Shanghai factory

 

The real issue is it seems to be mutating rapidly....the other issue is treating it is resulting in hospitalization which will put already strained health resources under pressure.

 

IMHO it will definitely get as bad as flu if not worse, despite world government's effort to contain it. To think that it is less deadly than flu would be to underestimate it. After all it seems to be causing more severe illness and has killed healthy adults in the 40 y/o range though not many but still numbers are coming in everyday.

And since we are doing perspectives, Hubei province has 58.5m people with 11m in Wuhan. USA has a population of about 372m. Since most deaths are in Wuhan, "officially" thats 500+ dead in about a week since reporting started, which means in 10 weeks we could have 5000+ dead just in Wuhan and in 20 weeks 10000 dead in Wuhan alone with population of 11million, or if you want to take the bigger sample size of Hubei province with 58.5m. And thats assuming the rate of deaths and new infections remain stable and not accelerate. Note that these are just from "official figures" According to local doctors, there have been many deaths which were reclassified under whatever other preexisting illness patients had. This means the actual deaths caused by nCoV could likely be many times higher!!

But even with the current stats, doing the math it looks like this new virus is more deadly and will eventually cause more deaths per capita than flu. People being scared aside, i reckon its the numbers that are causing governments to be scared. China gets heaps of cases of pneumonia from flu and cold viruses during winter every year, why would they institute a nationwide and multiple city quarantine response if they didn't think this was more serious than their seasonal flu? For them its no longer an unknown thing, they know internally exactly how many are dead from it and exactly how fast it is spreading.

Let's not forget how chinese gov are the coverup experts and the ones that initially treated this as another winter flu virus. It was already very widespread in the lead up to Christmas -> there are accounts from foreign students of how people in Wuhan were already well aware of a massive pneumonia outbreak there in December, and most people were already staying away from public places before the offical lockdown was made in late Jan. I would be pretty worried just seeing how worried Beijing is...

 

Absolutely nothing is going to happen and this is a flash in the pan and massively overblown by clickbait and frenzied-media coverage capitalising on the fear of people of the unknown.... The Boogyman!

This is no different than SARS when world was going to end. I was transiting through HK airport and not a soul in sight. When I arrived in Melbourne on what was the last Cathay flight from HK for a week, there were reporters in arrival lounge and next day's 'The Age' was full of how we were done for and Aus economy would tank now. Herald Sun on its cover had the arrival passengers in "shock" on the future of HK itself!

Who remembers Ebola - that was going to kill half the world's population and the end was quick and highly violent! It was highly infectious although different than an air borne virus' modus operandi.

There was African swine flu which has a mortality rate 50 times higher than that of CoronaVirus - at almost 100%!

The 'somewhat' biased media with truckloads of China-bashing and people's own political view points are adding to hysteria... If it is out of emerging-China, its gotta be bad and gonna be earth shattering and would destroy our civilisation..

Anyone who wants to get to the crux of it without the "all hell is breaking lose" needs to go to WHO website and review the scientific materials and then go to CDC in US and understand the actual transmission and mortality rate, preparations and screening advances and treatment regimes.

Fear drives panic and panic drives more fear. This is what we are seeing now. This will be over in a week or two. The world although lot more inter-connected now is also 6 times more prepared to fast track preparation of vaccines (vs SARS in early 2000s) , thanks to advances in computing-based genome sequencing and the biotech industry.

Review some good ol' simple medical journals and listen to experts. Not to biased commentators, politicians and clickbait media. This will be over in 2 weeks.

 

The impact on economic activity, supply chains, china economic growth etc are more important things to think about.

 

agreed- there is an immediate-impact driven by panic and fear as people stop travel, eating out, going to stadiums to watch sports, congregating in public places, reduced activity on auctions and double down on emergency supplies! We rescheduled our own company's annual workshop in Bangkok from mid feb to late mar as some of our key staff from Aus and UK were not comfortable traveling.

This the system and the economy will absorb and at most a tiny little bump on the quarterly numbers for the economy. Given what I have read, this pandemic will be over in 2 weeks - we are at the peak of infection and we will see declining trends and once that dies down, world comes back to normal, the supply lines open, people start traveling again and in 90 days, we would look back and realise that everything is back to normal.