Coronavirus and property values

If not contained properly, whats a two percent mortality rate of 1.35billion people? 20+million oldies dead?

Coronavirus has higher transmission rates and higher mortality rate than flu, hence a higher concern than flu. Imho it will be impossible to quarantine successfully as it transmits and incubates much like flu.

 

Imagine if the virus wipes out the world except for PC members lol because the radiation from the monitor thwarts the virus from multiplying. OK I know that means that anyone in front of a monitor would be saved but lets say you have to be drinking a VIC at the time.


You can get it ridin' You can get is slidin' You can feel it comin' on about four. A hard-earned thirst needs a big cold beverage, and the best cold beverage is VIC! You can get it walkin' You can get it talkin'! YOU CAN GET IT ON PC! Matter o' fact I've got it now.

 

Well our prime minister has followed suit. All Chinese nationals are now banned from travelling to Australia and all those currently in transit will be turned back at the border.

Yikes.

 

Good

 

Yeah, awesome for tourism and probably an overreaction..

I think we may as well just pencil in a recession for this year already..

But apparently this is a good thing.

 

The way iron ore prices are crashing we will have our first recession in decades for sure, and a pretty painful one at that. Who dares to attend a sydney or melbourne auction without a mask now??

 

Going to see some short term job losses over this, surely other countries that have cases will have to have travellers blocked entry also

 

Yeah China is the biggest source of foreign tourist dollars for many here, especially down the goldie.

 

Economy to take 'significant' hit - AFR, 2nd Feb

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is now saying the impact (bushfires & coronavirus) will be "Significant" and is beyond his control.

It probably comes at a good time for Frydenberg as companies were collapsing prior to coronavirus and the bushfires. Harris Scaffe, Jeanswest, Bardot, Co-op Bookshop/National Geographic, Little Caesars Pizza, EB Games, Big-W, McWilliam Wines, Dimmeys.

This will allow him to say it wasn't his fault and that we really would have had a "Strong Liberal Economy" if it wasn't for Coronavirus.

 

Well time to short all the retailers and tourism stocks.

 

And all the years of really weak wage growth has happened under their leadership.
At the same time big business is more interested in rewarding its shareholders through dividends and buybacks, thats not going to change under the current leadership

 

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...it-from-china-travel-ban-20200202-p53x0r.html

 

Wonder if this will set a precedent for the future. USA has had 200,000 hospitalised and over 10,000 deaths from influenza this 2019-2020 flu season, if they were to have a worse season 20-21 would we see US residents blocked out unless immunised

 

That is a good statistic that puts this a bit in perspective... although I think politics would make it very hard to deny Americans entry. Many tens of thousands die from influenza every year also. I think in Australia 2019 was one of the worst ever also.

I think medium term the recent isolation from China will help this from becoming too big a problem worldwide... however we should be concerned on how this may affect China in the next few months. For instance how long will their factories be shut down, how long will tourists be banned from coming to Australia, how long will this affect our imports?

I would not be surprised to see our sharemarket come off close to 10% next week off the back of this. This could flow into the property market short-term.

 

The way some will look at this is ,Coronavirus is a war,and a warning ..the global health system is nowhere close to strong enough to keep us safe from infectious disease,and us means everyone..

China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on February 3 as markets reopen

 

The unemployment numbers for January and February would show what sort of damage is being done , although January will all be about the southern N.S.W and Victorian bushfires with the summer peak season that runs for about 5 weeks from Boxing day till the school kids head back to school all but virtually wiped out , for many businesses in the tourist resorts its this money that powers them through the year.

 

Will this drive down apartment yields in student/tourist locations of inner Melb?

 

They say the coronavirus is helping to drive down mortgage rates in the US so could all this end up being beneficial for real estate (in Melb/Syd) if it forces the RBA to preemptively slash rates like they did during the GFC?

9 million homeowners could save big time on a mortgage refinance as rates hit 3-year low

 

I would say it takes about 2-3 months to clear up, much like flu season once the weather gets warmer it should improve, will be warmer by april.

IMHO there is a very real chance this shutdown will trigger a black swan event in China's credit bubble. Property prices and stock prices will crash and with government and people too busy managing this crisis this could tip sentiment into panic sell off mode. Over this weekend Beijing and Shanghai each have a death each, and almost 200 cases in each city, which will probably balloon as people return to work, compounded by the poor air quality in winter.

 

Didn't they drop interest rates by about 300-400 points after the GFC to help the economy, and were still trying to deal with the aftermath with interest rates being continually driven down to almost zero .
I really dont see how dropping interest rates by another 25-50 points is going to do anything , when you consider just prior the GFC many homeowners were paying about 9% in rates, thats about a 600 point drop in rates.
How much of a saving is that for someone that had a $700,000 loan in 2008 .
At 0.75% there is no where left to really stimulate the economy.
Any chance we had was blown since the election with a few more official drops by the RBA.