Coronavirus and property values

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by einentiva, 28th Jan, 2020.

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  1. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    BS numbers out of china . 35.7....
     
  2. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but . I expcannbe indicatorused as a trend indicator. probably should be nearer zero due to all the factory shutdowns in feb lol... Carmakers like hyundai had to shutdown plants completely from lack of parts early feb so we can assume output was almost zero from their factories.

    Japan PMI numbers should be out for feb as well should be more dependable?
     
  3. Peter2013

    Peter2013 Well-Known Member

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    How many jobs do you think are on the line?
     
  4. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Just an extreme example on how it is already affecting the market is the tourist hotspot of Cairns in QLD
    This article from a couple of weeks ago and is probably an extreme example

    Landlords reconsider renting on Airbnb as patrons decline amid bushfire and coronavirus fears

    A quick look on Airbnb for next weekend tells me there are over 300 properties available , and at some pretty good rates for 2 night stays.

    Then on realestate.com both the for sale and for traditional rental properties for the Cairns -greater region has the first 2 pages of properties added in the last of couple of days.
     
  5. strongy1986

    strongy1986 Well-Known Member

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    i used to think your posts were interesteing, now you are just bordering on delusional

    asx is already down 10% deaths in AUS = 0

    perspective?

    lots of smart people will make big money out of this scare
     
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  6. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Why is gold also dropping in price? Doesn’t gold usually go up in times like this.
     
  7. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    I was wondering where all the pessimists went on this forum! Looks like they found a way back out the box.

    Some nuts comments being sprouted!
     
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  8. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I'm all for a bit of realism in a sea of optimism most of the time... However global economy will be smacked for 6-12 months at worst.

    This is a great opportunity if you have the resources available...a once in a decade or two thing.

    I remember the GFC well, and all sorts of comments lately seem a bit all too familiar.
     
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  9. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    A lot of "smart people" have just lost a lot of money on the stock market and will probably make more losses on Monday, according to a report in todays Business Review, Margin Loans have made a big comeback last year with the 3 interest rate cuts and speculation that the stock market would soar.
    Its no where near the $42 billion just prior to the GFC, but since 2012 it has hovered around $11 billion and then shot up to $17 billion towards the second half of last year with the 3 interest rate cuts.
    Once you start to see some big losses on the stock market, many are forced to sell to cover their losses.
     
    Last edited: 1st Mar, 2020
  10. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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  11. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    I’ve been waiting to buy a few stocks so might finally get an opportunity.

    I’m still waiting for someone to tell me how long I have until we are turned into zombies. Some of the posts I’m reading it’s not too far off.
     
  12. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Too many sellers liquidating gold to pay for their margin calls? Lotsa traders in other commodities and stocks losing their pants and have to liquidate their assets. USD has also appreciated due to safe haven demand, and gold is traded in usd will go down in price. This should reverse fast when fed announces rate drops and qe4.

    I believe gold price will recover back to 2000 levels it was close to back in 2011 when markets entered a correction.
     
    Last edited: 1st Mar, 2020
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  13. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Put and Calls being exercised?
     
  14. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Albanga i always enjoy reading your posts. Curious what your thoughts are in regards to the virus and what it will do to businesses and our economy?

    Data came out yesterday showing China’s manufacturing data is lower than gfc levels which should have been bad as shops are closed. Just for a second, let’s say this does spread to Australia, do you not think it could play out similar for Australia?
     
  15. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Not about how many are dead in AUS. Well at least not yet, u can expect some deaths soon once we get to 100+ confirmed cases.
    Addit: oops i spoke too soon. one dead now but hey at least its not from community spread.

    For our economy its all about how things go in China and the other major economies. Stocks went down here in 2009 and 2011 , it wasnt due to virus locally, it was due to markets in china and overseas being impacted by happenings in USA.

    AsX wont just be down 10percent only lol...

    Community spread has started in three different places in the USA already this weekend. and they have an acute lack of testing kits which means more spread before they can diagnose and quarantine. Hence we can expect the spread in USA to be quite bad in March. Markets will adjust accordingly.

    Japan also has start of uncontrollable spread, expect to see many more cases ans deatgs pop up there as well.

    As u can see even in korea with quarantine and other measures u still get a lot of new cases a day.

    I have already mentioned before this virus spreads like flu but has a higher case fatality rate than flu. Unlike SARs /MERs its not going away quickly.

    Well at least travellers from Iran has finally been closed off. But the Iranian lady down at GC would have already spread the virus ariund for days there before she started having symptoms and isolated. I am quite concerned and keeping an eye on that.
     
    Last edited: 1st Mar, 2020
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  16. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    First death in Aus from corona...over in WA.

    China closed its factories just for the fun of it and destroyed part of its economy because its nothing.
     
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  17. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Oh it’s not good! I know my posts can be lighthearted but I am definitely not ignorant to the fact this is going to have a massive impact on the worlds economy.

    It’s going to get uglier before it gets better.
    However I’m not sure you can compare this event to say the GFC which was caused by fraud and systematic issues that naturally took a long time to recover.

    I’m of the strong belief that once it’s under control what we will see is some serious economic catch up. Things like Manufacturing will go into over drive and money will flood back into the stock market.

    Do I see it effecting house prices? Not really.
    Their will definitely be less activity and it might cause a flat market for a period but I think it will be business as usual after that.

    The biggest issue with Corona is the treatment is way worse than the disease. It’s the fear and slow burn causing all the problems.
    If your under 60 and semi healthy then we are better off just getting it and getting over it.

    My biggest fear for the world economy is how long it’s going to take to hit its peak. The slower the burn the worse off we are going to be.
     
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  18. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yep they are the masters of cover ups. But actions speak louder than words. First they tried to censor their good doctor for alerting people about the new virus. Then turnaround and lock down cities a few weeks later and tell the world that they have a new virus.

    First death of a 50+ yo in a care facilty in USA as well now of unknown origin. Man stocks are gonna get pummelled next week as more cases and deaths pile up in the USA.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Mar, 2020
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  19. Never giveup

    Never giveup Well-Known Member

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    Let me know what is good to buy too lol
     
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  20. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Good news or bad news depending how you look at it is that there are indications from politicians that Travelers from South Korea, Hong Kong and Italy will not be blocked even if infection numbers increase.

    Might be a different issue if Pakistan and Afghanistan report some infections.

    How do we see a slow down of manufacturing in China and Korea affecting us inflation wise? Disruption to supply of many goods may see prices rise short term, possibly long term as companies try to make back their losses. May even see higher demand for our fresh products as Chinese will lose confidence in local meat as they did with baby formula.
     
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