Coronavirus and property values

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by einentiva, 28th Jan, 2020.

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  1. einentiva

    einentiva Well-Known Member

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    Hi all well informed and intelligent people on this forum. Just wondering about the impact of coronavirus on property values of asian suburbs such as Kingsford, Burwood, Hurstville and Eastwood etc. Could this be an opportunity to buy below market value in a heated market.

    Please discuss
     
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  2. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    No. It seems to me that though 100 have died, there is little chance of the virus getting a real foothold in Australia is very unlikely.

    Also, I remember when Kingsford was mainly Anglo! Lived there for 12 years.
     
  3. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    If the situation gets that bad then I think property investments will be the last thing on peoples' minds.

    "Congratulations on your new property purchase Mr datto. At 90% below pre carona virus value you must be might pleased. Just sign here Err Mr datto ? Mr datto?!? Quick someone call a ambo, I think he's just carked it".
     
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  4. sumterrence

    sumterrence Well-Known Member

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    You only achieve that if there is a large enough distribution from the virus that cause mass migration out of those areas or even Australia.

    When that happens you will probably don't have the courage to buy.

    Assets are prices fairly by the market. It is expensive for a reason and cheap for a reason.
     
  5. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Since China is our biggest trading partner, the biggest risk is they sneeze and Australia catches a cold , especially if there are decent falls in Iron Ore, Coal and gas.
    The tourism industry has already started 2020 as an absolute shocker, both domestically and forward booking way down for international visitors, with more damage being done the longer the virus continues to affect China., and possibly big job losses in January and February
    It might all be back to normal in a few weeks or it might drag on for months.
    The entire cray fishing industry in W.A just shut up shop and they probably wont even bother getting out of bed until they can start selling crayfish back into the Chinese market.
    Its cheaper to not go out on the boats than try and sell to an Australian domestic market.
    Their entire business model is based on the mega high prices that the Chinese will pay.
     
  6. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    It wont be a direct effect. Really depends on how the virus plays out in China. It will probably be only this winter and should get better in a few months time as spring and warmer weather comes around. Over the year it should not have a big impact on china's economy and any filter down effects here will only be temporary with a big rebound later as demand returns.

    Mortality is not that high,~2% for this strain which is really nothing compared to 10%+ mortality for SARS. At worse, its just another winter flu thing, even if it spreads here. Just like the common flu, only elderly/immunocompromised/very young/preexisting illness people will die of it. Let's not forget China has billions in population, only a few thousand have got it so far and only a hundred plus deaths, hardly significant really if they can contain it.
     
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  7. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would think no,because if it goes the way i think it may go and they shut down the airports out of China
    and entry into several S E Asian countries then the outcome is unthinkable..

    China's Xi tells WHO he's confident of slaying 'devil' virus

    Breakingviews - New China virus is bigger threat for world economy
     
    Last edited: 29th Jan, 2020
  8. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Could flush out some of the wealthy from China and they will look for a safer place, in which case the prices in areas mentioned will see strong growth.

    Fear from non Chinese leading them to avoid these areas might see business take a small hit and put some homeowners under stress and also rental vacancies may rise, I could only see this being very short term.

    The biggest worry would be that Chinese stop travelling to Australia and shutdowns in China see them buy less goods from Aus. Could see significant job losses.

    Another possibility is that shutdowns in China see less goods coming to Australia, might kick off some inflation!

    My opinion is that we don’t know enough yet to do anything but speculate. Corona may well be less damaging than the common flu or it could be something worthy of putting the world in lockdown. The health of those with the virus in Australia point to the former but it is a very small sample.
     
  9. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    No not likely. As not all would be China..Hurstville.Burwood yes...but Kingsford and Eastwood a lot from Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, etc.

    I am more concerned about the lax health control at our borders..it is all window dressing by the idiot Feds. We are lucky that this is more like a severe strain of influenza and most of the cases have been mild...but there is strain where it causes viral pnuemonia and if that mutates and becomes something else it will get pretty bad.

    The Chinese govt is not be trusted...they lied about the severity of the Coronavirus...this has been there for weeks now. They contained a lot of this by shutting down people who raised this as a concern. The Chinese govt does not care about its citizens. You just have to look at all the human rights abuses.

    But the one thing we can learn is the weakness of the Chinese central govt .... and that is when a major event like this happens...they find it hard to control this..some 300,000 people have left Wuhan to other areas. They were slow in addressing...medical supplies were slow in coming..and only started filtering in when the world press got it.

    Personally, I would take a view that there be a moratorium in flights from China to Australia for a few weeks till they get the virus under control.

    The only exception is uncle "useless" Scomo needs to evacuate any Aussies/Permanent residents out of China. Hopefully we shows leadership here rather than dither like what he did with fires. The Americans, French, British, Canadian are already negotiating or in the process of getting their citizens out.
     
  10. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    well so far mortality is very limited and death rate very low in a big sample of thousands infected in China, but then again, we dont know if the mortality figures are fudged at all.

    This strain is probably similar to the common flu in severity, which means it can knock you about for a few days but u will recover, unless your immune system is weak.

    The big unknown is that with high population numbers infected in china it might eventually mutate into an even more damaging strain which could kill even healthy strong adults. that would be like the plague. We will know soon enough anyways.

    Lobster prices will be rock bottom soon if the closure continues for a more extended period into the future. Local Tourism, agriculture and mining sector are all gonna take a hit i reckon. Which means we are getting so much closer to 0% rates..
     
  11. bunkai

    bunkai Well-Known Member

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    Are these suburbs in quarantine? In terms of Burwood - what about Concord or Strathfield?
     
  12. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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  13. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    No.
    Did the AIDs virus affect property prices in the Eastern Suburbs?
    Or any number of flu pandemics in the 1890s, 1957, 1968 and 2009?
    The common old flu has been estimated to cause up to 3,500 deaths in Australia each year - as @Kangabanga says mainly taking out the very young, the very elderly and immuno-compromised.
    Nothing to see here - move on.
     
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  14. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    I am putting on my tin foil hat "ON"
    this virus is biological warfare to do maximum harm to a nation.
    What a coincidental it is - Wet market location - Lunar new year time frame.
    OK back to discussion on property. Zero effect on the suburbs for depress prices. Might even push those suburbs higher prices in the future.
     
  15. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  16. Air_Bender

    Air_Bender Well-Known Member

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  17. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Im confused didnt the Australian government negotiate on the 28th of January to evacuate Australians out?
     
  18. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    I think brick and mortar businesses are the ones who will be suffering the most so maybe commercial real estate might take a hit
     
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nope...they don't have persmission..yet..how is this possible? Seriously? This govt is seriously incompetent...first the bush fires...now this?

    Australian government doesn’t have permission for its coronavirus quarantine plan

    Unlike the Americans and Japanese...who have got people out.....why do we continue to tolerate these idiots....

    The Latest: Rival Koreas close liaison office over outbreak
     
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  20. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    The government is probably more concerned about our economy not completely stalling, since China is our major trading partner.
     
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