Corona - What happens if it's just let go .......

I don’t know, possibly. But this would be risk for pharma companies. Unless the government would take all responsibility for liabilities.

 

To me the fallacy in this thinking is that there is no way the economy will withstand the utter humanitarian disaster bigger than anyone has ever seen.

It would destroy both more than the alternative.

The UK was thinking4this way until they were advised they had totally misread or misunderstood the Chinese data. It would be horrific beyond comprehension.

Then there is the issue of the unknown immune response as this is an unknown and obviously novel.

And what if it mutates say seasonally?

Then what?

 

Thanks for the reply. I understand that it's not that simple but saying it's wishful thinking is simply not factual. Tens of treatments are being tested daily and lots are showing great potential. They might not be a vaccine or a cure for every case but if it would be enough if they can save a few lives.

On the point of risk to big pharma, bureaucracy in all its aspects around the world is being thrown down the window to facilitate things. I'm pretty sure they can work around it.

 

They won't require the normal standards required for a new medication coming to market if it's an existing , well tolerated medication .

Part of the disease that kills people is the bodies immune reaction that causes people kts go down hill sometime in the second weeks . I saw therapeutic guidelines that suggested that prednisone may be appropriate at this point , but what dose and the exacting timing and certainty are not there . If it's effective at preventing developing / suppressing the immune response that's killing many , the chances are we'll know that within a couple of months .

Apparently there are also certain biochemical markers that can indicate who is likely to develop severe disease prior to people developing it . This isn't being suggested as part of the management outside hospital setting , simply because they can't recommend what to do if those markers are high .

Prednisone is an incredibly widely available medication which is used for multiple conditions and while it has well documented side effects , in the short term it rarely has serious side effects .

Obviously it's not being suggested at this stage until it's been proven to work , because one side effect is suppress the immune system which could make you more prone to catch it.... I'm sure his advisers who shoot him if trump suggested it , so they probably haven't mentioned it to him .

But if it's shown to work in people who are at risk of dying, that may well be a game changer that could come around in a matter of a few months .

Cliff

 

The only viable solution in mind from a health and economic standpoint is (and note, nothing is ever foolproof):

1. serious lockdown for 3-4 weeks - police and military on streets to ensure rules are abided. Bring forward April and July school holidays.
2. no international flights coming into or out of Australia till a vaccine or effective treatment is publicly and widely available. If any citizens have to come back to country, they go to Xmas island for a quarantine holiday 50/50 Govt / their expense
3. when we're deemed Corona free after a month, life restarts. Restaurants and cinemas etc can slowly reopen...jobs can be recreated, social distancing to remain for 1 additional month
4. industries affected by the flight bans eg Qantas, Virgin, affected businesses etc to be supported by the Govt till Corona blows over worldwide. Domestic travel will help cushion the P&L though as people work and holiday within Oz. Viable businesses that had to be wound up bc of the virus (causal link must be proven and audited) will be compensated to an extent by their insurers. Maybe we should nationalise QF again too...its not really Australian anymore
5. vote me in for PM

 

Great article.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ng-the-agony-for-markets-20200325-p54dle.html

 

I liked it a lot

 

What do you mean?
The thread is "what happens if it's just let go"

 

Sadly it's not just an "old persons" disease as more and more stories come out of of young people dying.

UK mother in mourning after 21-year-old dies of coronavirus

 

Great article, thanks for posting.

 

It was - and I'm definitely no expert but, as there is no underlying monetary reason (ie, banks imploding etc), once the threat of the virus - and or peak - has passed, then I see the global economy recovering very quickly ... if, and only if, governments set a solid foundation underneath

Not to play down that there will be significant pain in the short term - but we now live in a fast paced, technological society where turnaround will be rapid - shares can be bought within seconds - and people will simply "get on" with their lives

 

A lot of people have illness, what is your point?

 

I should clarify, it is wishful thinking that a new, innovative medicine that can actually cure the virus will be around any time soon.

The treatments you are talking about are drugs which have gone generic and are looking to be re-purposed. These will only be used to treat any other issues which may arise from COVID-19, not the actual virus itself. Kind of like taking Panadol for the flu.

Here’s a recent article that summarises the issues about using hydroxychloroquine in an off-label situation for COVID-19.

Decades-old drug in two Australian trials related to Covid-19 but experts urge caution

Some quotes from the article:

‘The US drugs regulator also warned the drug could do more harm than good. There is months, if not years, of research that needs to be done to prove that something that kills the virus in a test tube will be both safe and effective in Covid-19 patients. There is a real risk of building false hope in a drug that has not been well-tested for this particular disease. Evidence from trials to date has been inconclusive and other evidence has been purely anecdotal.’

‘Politicians are talking about these potential treatments almost daily, leading to media reporting on them, and the public, fearful of deaths, are hopeful for a cure’.

‘Prof Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician who has worked as an advisor to the World Health Organization, said there were no quick fixes. “If I got Covid-19 tomorrow, I wouldn’t want any of those drugs being tested [on me],” he said.

“It could help with treatment, it could do nothing, or it could be very harmful, and at at the moment we don’t know which of those statements are true,” he said.’

 

Interesting article on how this pandemic could reshape the global geopolitical order.

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

 

its not just America with ammo
a guy at work who is in a gunclub went to buy from his local supplier here in liitle old adelaide.. was told he has sold 15 pallets of ammo in less than a week which is usually a years sales. one other shop sold over 7000 rounds in less thans 2 hours..
so preppers are getting ready for armeggeddon..or too protect their Loo paper stockpiles

 

Sweden not following this..... no lockdown here
Sweden Is Open for Business During Its Coronavirus Outbreak

Interesting Singapore is doing well, partial lockdown, weighing up their economy and not prepared to kill this

Coronavirus: Measures taken so far not akin to lockdown, says expert

I am having second thoughts about what we are doing and why we actually need to lockdown??

Whether it will work? And what we are doing to business, loss of jobs and probably end up in a major recession, already here

third of population is in global lockdown
A running list of countries that are on lockdown because of the coronavirus pandemic


history will be the judge

 

Hopefully history will judge with ... " don't know why you went into lockdown, hardly anyone died"

And that was the point

 

and you don't think they'd be prepared to do that ?

I'd be stunned if they weren't prepared to do it .

In reality , a lot of those decisions will be made by front line treating specialists , who , faced with some one they expect to die , will try the latest treatments suggested by a colleague who they have a video link up with the day before , who reported they'd tried xxx in someone in a similar position and they'd seen an improvement in their symptoms . In the current situation , no one's going to be looking over their shoulder saying , " that's naughty , you shouldn't have done that , we're going to sue you .... "

No social isolation , no attempts to contain the spread of the virus . Basically , the disease is allowed to spread rapidly through the community , short course , high peak , maximum death toll , minimum damage to the economy . ( I"m not suggesting it , but ist almost seems as though america is heading that way , by a lack of leadership and appropriate action.

No ones saying they have a solution at this stage , but if existing drugs can minimise the damage and stop people from dying , that may well be achievable in a shorter time frame than an immunisation.

Cliff

 

FDA in US has just approved a plasma treatment, they are actually rolling it out now in New York

The good news is they are saying there is a high probability it will work and they will know in one month. I did post the link on another thread