Corona - What happens if it's just let go .......

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by See Change, 24th Mar, 2020.

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  1. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Economically , the best thing would be just to let things go , everyone gets sick , a percentage die , business keep on going , the world doesn't stop .

    Most people who die are elderly , or have chronic health issues so they're a drain on the society anyway . Darwinism in work .

    Initially it seemed that the UK was going to go partially this way , but I think they realised that everyone else was shutting down and the political cost of all those deaths would haven't been something that the UK government wasn't prepared to take or could have survived.

    But , interestingly the US prez has suggested that might be the way to go . He's obviously more concerned about the economic cost than the cost in lives . Now that may well be a thought bubble that popped out from somewhere , but with him , you never know . America has always been about having a go and if you fail , well that's too bad , at least you tried . Minimal safety net.

    Given how quickly it's spreading there , the decision to do that may be taken out of his hands and I'm expecting them to top the case rate in the next week ( could even be 2-3 days ) and probably crack a mill within a couple of weeks .

    Irony will be if they get over it in 4-6 months , their economy is bouncing back prior to November while the rest of the world is deep in depression and he gets back in . Scary thought and if it plays out like that , pure dumb " luck " ( apart from the millions who would die )

    Cliff
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 24th Mar, 2020
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  2. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    4-6 months would be a good outcome,but looking at the worldwide shutdowns if Mrxxxxx as his great strength is strategy would be pulling of the deal of a lifetime and the ultimate challenge for someone that has to wrestle with his own personality each day..
     
  3. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    If it was just let to run its course, don't you agree that hospitals would fill up with all ages, healthy, young, middle aged and not just elderly, and there would be young people, parents with young children dying?

    Isn't it the sheer numbers and lack of ICU beds that is the major problem with letting this run its natural course?
     
    Last edited: 24th Mar, 2020
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  4. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You don't have to imagine what would happen - just look at what's happening in Italy and Spain, quite distressing once you understand just how bad it really is for them over there.
     
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  5. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    The other alternative is to gear up with ventilators and beds in makeshift halls and conference rooms, empty cruise ships, hotels etc armed with trial treatments at the ready. China built a new hospital in days lol.

    I still think we should try and isolate and 'flatten the curve' but it just doesn't seem doable unless lockdown = LOCKDOWN. And what happens when you're done with that and try to open up the country/borders again? A handful of imports will restart the nightmare.
     
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  6. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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  7. meme plecko

    meme plecko Well-Known Member

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    Where do you buy these ventiators? Hundreds of thousands would be needed. We are running low on masks and disposable gowns already with new orders not accepted...
     
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  8. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Welcome to Straya
     
  9. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    @See Change , what are your thoughts on a treatment?

    If we do get one, that is reliable and accepted worldwide, do you think that the government would let the workforce go back into action and simply treat the ones who get sick enough to be hospitalised?
     
  10. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    It does sound like their fearless leader is driven by his re-election, at the cost of hundreds of thousands (or millions) of lives. It's frightening to even consider it, let alone the hawks in the US Government making it happen.
     
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  11. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    Throw into the mix some major civil unrest and rioting over governments lack of action and prioritising economic gains over millions of lives...

    Would make occupy wall st look like a pro-capitalism march.
     
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  12. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    There was a good article in a similar vein I read the other day, except what it was saying was you should just go super hard isolating the high-risk people, elderly sick etc - full quarantine, no access allowed and then let it run through the healthy population until we develop the Herd immunity.
     
  13. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Exactly . It will be a humanitarian disaster .

    Sim ,

    Italy , has 69,000 cases at the moment . If it was let loose , you'd have infection rates of 50 % you'd have 30 million cases , so over 400 times more than what you've got at the moment .

    Spain has 42,000 cases

    50 % infection rates given 23 million , so around 550 times more than what they've got .

    So that would be the cost of letting this run loose .

    Bad as it is now , the cost of letting it loose is magnitudes more .

    They'd be digging trenches with bulldozers and doing mass graves ....

    NY Governor say he needs 30,000 and has just received 400 ....

    Once we have an effective treatment , the next issue will be availability / volume and how effective is it ?

    Even with vaccinations , none are 100 % effective, but they rely on herd immunity getting the number of susceptible people down to a level where ongoing transmission doesn't sustain in a population

    Cliff
     
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  14. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Yeah throw it in...... other than that this has not happened in any other country.
     
  15. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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  16. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    America' uniqueness is how they support the idea of anyone achieving the " American Dream " which is striving to achieve the best you can do , but also an acceptance that if you fail , don't expect any support . As a result people try hard to succeed and many do .

    It's their strength , but also their weakness , and that " survival of the fittest " means there is minimal support for the poor . Because they idealise the individual , they don't have an inbuilt respect for authority , hence there's a greater likelihood of people taking the law into their own hands than in Australia or the UK or in Europe .

    I checked out " suburban prepper " sites and it seems that the most important thing isn't a secure source of food , but a massive supply of guns and ammo . Presumably you can use those to take the food of those less well armed , or probably just shoot them so they're not in a position to get their own supply of guns and ammo and try to take their food back ....

    I think the US will get messy in particular in places like Hope, Washington

    Cliff
     
  17. CSDS

    CSDS Active Member

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    If you let it "run free" then 80% of the population will catch it.

    1% will die of it (COVID 19).

    In Australia that equates to around 190 000 deaths due to COVID 19 alone.

    That isn't so much the problem. It's that fact that with so many sick people at once clogging up hospitals and ICU's people who get ill with other regular stuff eg. car accidents/cancer/heart attacks will not have any resources to treat them - then they will also die or suffer long term harm.

    So if you are happy with approx 2% of the population (conservatively 300 000 people in 12 to 18 months) dying a premature death - then by all means let it "run free".

    This will run its course and we will only be out of the woods when an effective vaccine is out there and herd immunity is to a level to stop it spreading - so another 24 months I would say.
     
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  18. Shazz@

    [email protected] Well-Known Member

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    With all due respect, those people waiting for a miracle cure and vaccine, forget it. It takes years to get a drug on the market and by that time, this whole thing would have done its damage.

    Just as an FYI, you need at least 12 months of clinical trials data to show that the vaccine works against COVID-19 and that it’s SAFE. To recruit patients, do all the ethics, apply for funding, and get the scientific protocols in place could take a year or so (best case scenario). Then you have to wait for 12 months for the data and then you have to analyse and publish the results. Only then will FDA and the European regulatory bodies will register the drug. To get a drug listed on the TGA and get it PBS reimbursed, it’s a further 18 months. You can start getting the picture on how long this could take..

    The other way around this is to use existing drugs for COVID-19, but this would be considered off-label use. In other words, a drug would be used for a purpose not indicated by the drug company. This is a risk for physicians and hospitals as they would be up for litigations if the patients die or gets something else e.g. cancer by using this drug). As you can see, not that simple. Furthermore, there is nothing that actually works in directly curing this virus.

    Ps- I work for big pharma and used to be a research scientist prior.
     
  19. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

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    The issue with these projections and numbers is that they are calculated day by day so the 1% represented is being able to access the current ICU and hospital facilities too. So impossible to figure out the modelling and % as it can change based on many other factors that may come into play.
    But the calculation can shift from 1% to even 10% (at least that was what one medical staff has suggested or assumed). Once the medical staff and the frontline is crippled too then who knows what % projections one should calculate?
    Also it was mentioned the more are infected the more of Italy's frontline becomes infected too (assumed 25%).
    I suppose it is a very fine balance between health crisis and economic crisis and I suppose those people that choose or have empathy will choose lives wheres those that don't will choose likelihoods instead?
    A day ago, at present from one webinar of about 500 people or so polled 80% chose financial concern more as to health concern of 20% instead.
     
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  20. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Though if an existing drug actually showed some promise, there is the possibility that normal regulatory restraints might be waived in the current circumstances? There are huge financial incentives to get things back to normal.
     
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