Health & Family Corona virus predictions

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by Sackie, 7th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Make your predictions.


    I predict in 8 to 12 months from today, the virus will either be gone or very much under control and most of the hype and hysteria would have died down and folks moved on to the next world doom and gloom issue.

    I'lll be interested to see how right or wrong I was in 12 months or sooner.



    What are your predictions for the virus?
     
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  2. Shady

    Shady Well-Known Member

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    Yep, It will get worse in the short term, something else will happen which diverts everyone's attention elsewhere, meanwhile they'll develop and anti virus and it will be nothing more than one of those things that caused a short term blip.
     
  3. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane property market will crash
    Sydney market will boom
    Perth market will boom
    Melbourne market will boom
     
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  4. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    First world epidemic in over 100 years .
    Many millions of fatalities .
    Over 200,000 Australians will die ( though most will be over 80 ) .
    Will get a lot worse first .
    World economy will stall .
    Markets at some stage will be at a loss to describe or explain what is happening .
    Australia WILL go into recession when the figures for Apr June become available . If it doesn't I'll be stunned, but the markets will still be surprised....
    Property market may not fare as badly as some expect , but there is the potential for a blood bath . Tasmania will do well .
    Given the markets will be routed, people may go to property as a safe haven .

    Now I'm kicking myself for not buying this place last year . Perfect little escape pad .
    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-tas-marrawah-114205507

    There is potential for major social / political disruption / Violence , regime changes in places like Iran .
    It may well get nasty in places where there is a distrust of authority and ready availability of guns . ie many parts of the US...

    This will become one of the defining moments in our life .

    A effective vaccine will resolve this , so once it either burns out , or a vaccine is available , every one will be so sick of what has happened , we'll all just get on with life and the recovery from this will be quicker than the GFC , though it's short term impact will be much worse.

    We may see a similar effect in the 2020's to the 1920';s . Every one was so sick of the great war , the Roaring 20's became a time for partying and excess , though leading to the great depression ...

    I hope I'm wrong , but every estimation I've made in the last 2-3 weeks ( to myself ) has totally underestimated how quickly this will spread .

    Prepare for the worst , hope for the best .

    Cliff
     
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  5. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    OK you're scaring me now.
     
  6. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I'm with Cliff
     
  7. cberg86

    cberg86 Active Member

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    Very much agree with your prediction, they say history doesn't repeat but it rhymes.

    January you could not get away from stories about the bush fires. A month later and the headlines have moved on dramatically. Late January & early February it rained and from what I understand a lot of inland places have had more rain in a month than they had all of last year. No more bush fires & no more headlines pronouncing the end is near for Eastern Australia.

    Some places 12 months from now will have barely recovered which is the real tragedy. Townsville, where I live, is in a similar situation with our flood from February 2019. Lot's of people affected, still lot's of people without proper insurance payouts let alone able to restart the process of building up again. I experienced that with the flood in Lismore in 2017 also.

    I used to be glass half empty I think growing up, I'm really not sure what changed in the last couple of years but I really am glass half full these days compared to most people when I look around & talk to people. I definitely feel like there's more doom & gloom than steady as she goes sort or happy outlooks on life.
     
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  8. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Like most crises, it will feel like there is no way out during the process, but after its over the boom will seem obvious.
     
  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    If it plays out like this, I see possibly the greatest opportunity in over a hundred years to make a killing in the stock market.
     
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  10. Jess Peletier

    Jess Peletier Mortgages, Finance & Property Strategy Aust Wide Business Member

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    The sentiment from the virus will have more impact than anything else.

    There's what - 62 cases in Australia? And yet my supermarket shelves are empty.

    Perception is reality - and if you think there's a problem, there is a problem.

    The sharemarket is an emotional barometer - and this is a hysteric response to something that's actually a big nothing.

    What I'm seeing is that the US stockmarket has has a 10 year bull run. It's got to end, and when it does it'll be a mess.

    That will further cause panic...and it's a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
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  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    OK here goes:

    THE NEGATIVES
    1. I think we (Australia) will have...a technical recession...which means we will have 2 qtrs of negative growth.
    2. Well see emergency rates between -0.25% and 0%. ...this means that for median variable P&I rates will be well under 3%....
    3. The US will not be able to cope with Coruna unlike China....they will go into a recession..and as usual their housing market will follow. The yanks have under spent on their public health for years and this is going to burn them. Perhaps even riots. They may need to deploy troops to maintain law and order.
    4. Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane will be much harder hit than other states. Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne may slow or go backwards. The regionals will do well...particularly those with agriculture and commuting distance from larger cities.
    5. This virus will take a toll...but death rates will not be as high as people think. I feel the virus will mutate to the point humans will build some level of immunity. A vaccine will probably be developed towards the end of year....the answer maybe in some of current antivirals (stuff used to treat pneumonia in AIDS patients).
    6. The world governments will start rethinking some aspects of globalization. In particular..things like supply chains, etc.
    7. I can see unemployment hit 6.5% by next year.
    8. The stock market will take a hammering..another 8-20% is not out of question.
    9. A lot of retirees/pre-retirees who did not plan for this..will find they may need to work longer or live on less. I have kept harping on about a shock..this is the one! This looks like a Black Swan event...but it is actually a Grey Swan event which will become a Black Swan because people did not see the clear...events in the horizon...when Coruna hit people should have started going to a defensive position for their super if they are less than 10 years from retirement...there is no way people will recover that much..in less than 15 years..as we are in a prolonged period of low growth.

    THE POSITIVES

    1. Awesome opportunity to build a large share portfolio...quickly at bargain prices
    2. Opportunities to but in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne houses in Chinese dominated suburbs for a bargain. Also ...with layoffs it will hit professionals the most...so this time the hit will be on the better suburbs...they are way over geared.
     
    Last edited: 7th Mar, 2020
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  12. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    We can wish, watching and waiting
    Patience required
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    But will there be toilet paper:p
     
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  14. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    If it really did play out like that, and I don't believe it will. But if it did, I'd be willing to risk a decent chunk of my money and put it into the stock market.
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I don't get the whole toilet paper thing. I didn't believe it till I went to my local Coles... shelves are empty...why toilet paper....
     
  16. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yes there will be that is why established a ETF for toilet paper.

    The toilet paper company is definitely going to have a fantastic year...so will pasta sauce, handwash, pasta and rice companies....all because of a few Bogan Australians.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    I am with you here
    I think share market due for massive correction. Dont believe it will be corona but recession??? No point buying at 10% drop, not prepared to erode capital

    in the meantime its kind of fun watching everyone panic.... I know sick but .......
     
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  18. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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  19. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    We had a strategy this morning partner went to woolies I went to coles, we scored.
    yesterday was a bad day, no stock
     
  20. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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