Chris Joye Vs Steve keen debate

Just out. A bit of fun to watch Steve get wrecked

Haven’t heard much from Chris but is good to listen too.

 

Clashing with a housing doomsayer

"..I retorted that Keen had not presented “any analytical basis for a 40 per cent decline in house prices”. Keen butted in again with what would prove to be his final, fatal mistake. “It is not analytical – it’s gut feeling,” he revealed. So the emperor has no clothes! For the first time, Keen had conceded that there was no evidentiary basis whatsoever for his scaremongering. He had simply pulled those unsubstantiated opinions out of his behind!.."

 

Completely. I rewound that part to make sure i heard it right.

 

What I found more intresting was Chris conceding a possibility of recession and under those circumstances Keens prediction of 30%+ price falls becoming validated.

 

Of course in a recession, widespread loss of employment, and mortgage arrears we would be in for a tough ride & decent drops in prices. I feel like that goes without saying.

But doesn’t appear things are as bad as keen likes to portray. Always hedging on the worst case and not the facts.

 

The property market must be pretty stretched to the upside if a simple recession will send property prices down 20-40%.

It's like we are standing on a cliff edge, balancing on one foot and hoping no gust of wind blows to tip us over the edge.

 

Australian recession may be likely but should not be welcomed

ScoMo, it’s time to show us the money

It appears if we don't want Keens worst case scenario played out, Scummo may have to have a complete rethink of the liberal party's current economic ideology!

 

i found joye's comments about possible ramifications of recession very interesting but keen saying that his prediction is not based on any analytic's but is "gut feeling" the most interesting comment of the debate.

 

Keen reminds me of one of those millennials who are going to save the world, I'm sure he's a great guy but I struggle to listen to him. Just comes across as a constant I'm right cause I'm right. Not I'm right and here are the facts type.
Again my opinion only, nothing personal against mr Keen I thank him for sharing his views and thoughts

 

Even if the property market wasn't stretched and recession hits prices fall. Depending on how severe the recession is no job with a home loan means no home.

Rates are still falling, and can go negative, and serious stimulus packages are still to come as many are indicating. If anything it seems the next couple years will see prices go higher than today.

 

Chris has always said a recession will eventually happen, but not for the short to median term.

Steve's 'gut feeling' comment made him look like a panlicker. Doesn't mean he won't be right eventually but it might be years away.

 

I have been watching Christopher Joye's statements for a while. I like him. (not in a creepy way)

 

Getting the timing wrong on your forecast or prediction is the same as wrong even if you eventually get it right, like he is @#$@#$ selling his place some years ago, it would cost him twice as much to buy it back plus all the rent he paid since.

he is out of the game he is wrong as simple as that

 

On the broader economy I also listen and watch a lot of Ray Dalio, based on his knowledge of history, cycles, and the economy I put a lot of faith in his thoughts. Following him, asset prices being a lot higher before we see a major recession/reshuffle is entirely possible.

I don’t think I could be more bullish on property RIGHT NOW but will react to change, and that could be different in 2yrs time.

 

waste of oxygen

 

“The property market” Sorry mate which one?

A recession would affect house prices regardless, I like how Chris points out that it’s entirely possible, however the drivers that would cause property to drop that far. Just aren’t there right now. And spruiking it just because people have an opinion on affordability is dangerous.

I personally think we are only a couple years off a recession, Assets will still be my first choice to put $$

The way I see it, if things turn bad. You still have to do something, Hold cash your stuffed, hold equities your stuffed, Real Estate seems like my best option.

 

You would have to ask Chris Joye, he made the comment. I assume he was talking about prices at a national level (i.e. average).

 

Exactly, Perth has already had it's recession, high unemployment and big price drop.
Could Perth house prices really drop another 30%?

Willy