China property bust article....

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hammer, 7th Sep, 2021.

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  1. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    There will be some damage done when Evergrande gets the chop chop.
    I would be a fly on their wall right now and listen into their conversation.
    If I know Chinese culture in any small ways. They will save face and still slap you in the face at the same time behind the curtain. :eek:
     
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  2. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    I think this likely the case, Chinese are quite capitalistic and entrepreneurial by nature, probably even more so than your typical Americans if allowed to free roam. The Evergrade story a growth by all cost story, they started in a period where greed is great and capital was almost unlimited. Not so different to the IT boom of the 90s. I am sure they will sure be taking a hit, but it wouldn't affect the economy in a long lasting major way like the sub prime crisis.
     
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  3. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    This will be painful for them. They aren't just a construction industry giant.
    They have tentacles in a lot of different sectors.
    Hopefully it will be like a divorce when they get the chop. Different brand gets split into their own.
    We can speculate as much as we like. It is free to speculate and poke it as much as you like.
     
  4. Alex AB

    Alex AB Well-Known Member

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    Based on my experiences working with them, the power that be will make Evergrande as an example; but they will not let it impact the rest of the country as much. My guess is that they will let some other people buy different parts of Evergrande business and split them up. It shows that you cant be a big capitalist corporation in China and do what you want, but rather you need to follow the big boss.
     
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  5. trinity168

    trinity168 Well-Known Member

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  6. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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  7. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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  8. Bluechips

    Bluechips Well-Known Member

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    Every country has got its own issues... The government I would rank the highest is probably Singapore, a government operating in almost no debt. Of course, even them has their own issues too and some westerners might still criticize their authoritarianism.
    You could say Evergrand's story is shocking but have you checked the exposure of the big 4 banks here to mortgages? I bet it's in a pretty shocking scale too. One might probably argue it's more diversified as they lend to different people lol. When tide goes out it doesn't matter if one swimming naked or millions swimming naked...
    China is still a developing country overall and some of their stuff will never be as good as Australia... However, China has got ahead in many fields, AI, electric cars, electronic payment, logistics etc.
    What works in the western world doesn't necessarily work in other countries, hope the US has learnt the lessons in Afghanistan...
    Giving Afghannies weapons and a democracy on paper doesn't really help them to prosper. People laughed about Japan in 60s, have been predicting China's collapse since 1979... Maybe we should focus on our own businesses.
    At least, China has started working on the debt problems, so has Kiwis across the ditch. How about Australia? Is it still a story of too big to fail or is it a story of too reluctant to act?
     
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  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely. If China was run like say Australia is, it would be in absolute chaos.


    You can't manage billions of people with the kumbaya attitude Australia has the luxury of having.

    Australia can barely manage 25m at present.
     
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  10. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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    China Evergrande bond trading suspended after downgrade

    They are scrambling. Blackrock the number 1 holder? Game over.

    If china gets a paper cut Australia will bleed out.

    This is going to be painful
     
  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    This is probably the smartest observation I have seen.

    President Xi is taking China back to old days...this is going to take a toll on it. By doing this he is going to indebt China even more....not only that China has very few friends. They were okay till Xi's nationalistic policies...got in the way. Me thinks that there is more issue below the surface...as people get more prosperous...they do not like authoritarian dictatorships.

    I think the govt has made an excellent decision to invest in nuclear submarines. This and hypersonic missiles is an excellent way to deter a conflict with China.

    Also...the people who are saying that we should appease China have no understanding the of the current culture or the culture of the mainland Chinese.

    The Chinese are not transparent...they are a lot of issues they are hiding. People forget they are not a developed country yet....and have the issue of a rapidly ageing population. Let see...but I reckon the next economic crisis will come from China.....and this will hurt everyone. I just hope Australia has the wisdom to diversify away from China quickly to India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Phillipines.



     
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  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Time will tell...but the Chinese govt is hell bet in cracking down on the rich who made China prosperous...they disappearing a lot of them. They are also going to purposely going to pop the property bubble there...will be interesting to see how this affects Chinese property investment in places like Sydney and Melbourne.

    I invest in ETF...a lot of them are already pulling back on Chinese stocks....will be interesting to see how this also impacts on the prosperity of company assets in China. From my perspective this is very poor policy to contain private enterprise...communism does not work.

     
  13. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Stop being a bear Sash! Chinese apartments are going to the moon :p
     
  14. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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    Did you see E-G begging people to take apartments at a 28% discount? :)

    Makes you wonder about all those apartments in areas like box hill VIC
     
  15. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Easy there tiger.
    Your view change like the weather. :p
     
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  16. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nope it will not change.... I have friends in the EU...and Asean regions....they have similar views. Though if you read it well...it should present some opportunities. My accountant is a Mainlander and even she is noticing some things. See articles explaining the impact:

    https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/there-property-bubble-china

    In its latest crackdown, China intensifies focus on real estate

    Time will tell if the emperor will have clothes based on his policies. :p


    Lets say the ASIO is beefing up on mandarin speakers also. ;)
     
    Last edited: 16th Sep, 2021
  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    They are already statospheric ...Sydney is at 10-12 times income....Beijing/Shanghai apartments are are at 40-45 times income. They are definitely at moon...question will is will they see property there pop like Ireland..Japan....lets see....
     
  18. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    They are going to the moon....possibly on a one way flight. On a more serious note...I would be very careful in areas where mainlanders are investing in. If things in Beijing get worse...it is going to get very interesting.
     
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  19. Harris

    Harris Well-Known Member

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    I don't mind you sash - you kind of lighten things up here (for those that could decipher some of your posts) but given you have been wrong on so many predictions with a double (may be triple) dose of convictions, I have stopped taking you seriously!

    I recall you were telling everyone to sell out of Syd in 2017 and 2018 and would bash people up, yelling & ridiculing that were proposing a point of view diametrically opposite to yours.

    You were as wrong as one could ever be. They were right.

    I also recall you shouting off the top of your lungs on how European (especially Italians) couldn't sort things out with covid and that they were toast and were a complete basket case. You were in awe of Americans and how they got covid under control! - rest is history... USA screwed it up the most whilst European sorted their **** up pretty quickly.

    You were so wrong it wasn't funny.

    And that's about the 2 main things I recall reading your posts over the last couple of years.

    You are heading in the same direction again with China - contrarians are good. Every echo chamber must have some people going against the grain but when discussions become a matter of "I know what I am talking about because I can scream the loudest" with a healthy dose of ridicule that have an opposing view to yours, then it loses its appeal.

    You are going to be wrong again about China - Not because I have any love affair there but going by your history, the louder you scream, the opposite the facts turn out!

    Do keep posting - Like I said, I don't mind reading your posts!
     
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  20. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    In the short time I’ve been here, I’m overwhelmed with the amount of cranes atop under-construction apartment blocks. What I also notice is it seems so many of these buildings are empty or unfinished. I have no idea if in the months and years ahead people will take up residence but the scale is staggering.
     
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