China property bust article....

I suppose there would be a very good reason why your generation or yourself came to reside in Australia in the first place? The populace over there don't know any better or too scared to stand up to the CCP about human rights, I think a lot of countries will pay dearly for using cheap labour but the biggest problem they have is limited clean water and not enough food, countries like NZ are willing to pull their pants downs which will cause tensions with bigger nations like us, have you seen the 60 minutes story where the media asks Jacinda about deals with China, and she just clams up because she can't be transparent in front of the whole world? Not hard to starve off a country like that, Australia has everything it needs within its own island, clean water, open farm land and minerals. The only thing we don't have is cheap labour.

 

Yeah there is a good reason. I'm Australian, Italian born. Moved to Asia for business and lived there for a long time. I have residential properties and commercial businesses in China and Taiwan.

For all their faults, they are both amazing places. For many reasons.

Let's not pretend the rest of the world are angels. Far, far from it.

Re property and business in China and Taiwan, most people I know are doing very well there. There are dips and bumps along the way (which all counties have) but to me it's business as usual.

Bet against China at your own peril.

 

Nope. That is why I am taking profits...to preserve the profits. Holding shares at the moment but watching it.

My personal opinion is that the next recession/depression will be caused by China. They will do something and go overboard. They are already making things very difficult for their top business people. They will learn the hard way. When you have people like Warren Buffett and George Soros raise issues it will get interesting. A simple conflict over Taiwan will result in the UK...USA...India..Australia...EU...Japan...cutting off supplies.. China cannot feed her people....militarily they know it so does the Quad. Simply cut off food and energy they are done...unless they go nuclear.

 

The weakening of the unions and the gig economy will fix that "problem".

 

I'm not afraid of hard work, lol, and I'm approaching 50 but there's so much red tape in this country when it comes to employing people I can't see it going backwards in a hurry. All our manufacturing is pretty much gone offshore, never to return.

Trying to reason with a country like China is like doing a deal with the devil, once you pollute the rivers, air and water you can no longer go back but the only reason they are interested in Australia is that we have what they want. In the short term we will be worse off, but in the long run is where it all counts.

 

It will happen...China will learn to reason......you need a productive workforce to maintain high growth. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Phillipines...will start taking up a lot of manufacturing from China.

China wants to move towards high tech and services...but these require a more open transparency. The way the Chinese govt is clipping the tech titans there...they clipping some industries which have potential. Just look at Jack Ma....he was well respected globally....recently they also started on other companies like Tencent. All because the bloke who runs the country is very insecure.

 

This current government and most employers want it for free. They want workers to work for free. They want to over burden their workers with an unrealistic work load and force them to work for free. Red tape is a furphy.

Read about a huge ecommerce company who has delivery drivers in Melbourne. Drivers get paid $100 for 40 deliveries in a 4 hour shift (you try and deliver a parcel every 6 minutes over a suburb lol). Drivers use own car and fuel, no tax deductions, no super, no holidays, sick pay etc etc

If they don't delivery everything they lose "demerit points" and can get sacked via their app. So if it takes more than 4 hours to complete the job they only get paid for 4 hours, the extra time is for nothing.. This is unAustralian. If they could they'd have child labour.

 

Another way to look at it- They are getting paid $2.50 per delivery. Over in South Korea they get paid $1 per delivery. As for Amazon Flex it's mainly designed as an extra part-time job. We live in a capitalistic society- money rewards capital. With globalisation wages will continue getting cheaper. We've already seen that in Australia with our manufacturing being wiped out and factories relocating overseas. With WFH we'll see more disruption to 'white-collar' professions. Way of the world unfortunately.

 

A very relevant post....your point about white collar wages is so true.

I reckon there will be readjustment of wages for WFH workers....this may also lead to people from anywhere on the world being employed with the relevant skillsets.

Trades like plumbers and electrician maybe the new Gold Collar jobs!

 

Yeah in Korea I read they deliver parcels till 1.00 am sometimes. They get paid $200 per day less out goings which includes employer fines for any "errors" made by the drivers. It's also destroying the driver's health. The drivers have to get to the depot early in the morning to load up and sometimes they wait for hours because they may be a problem eg broken conveyor.

We are also more a socialist country than many would think.

Bring back better worker's pay and conditions. These conglomerates are not only destroying our workforce but are also not paying their fair share of tax.

 

It's not just in Melbourne. They've got three or four depots in Sydney too. One of them being in Glendenning.

 

There are industries like that but makes me wonder why people sign the contracts, I would never work for a large corporate again either unless I was earning over a 150k/annum, worst crooks around, call everyone a manager of some type and pay a salary for a 38hr week knowing that you end up doing 70hr weeks, week in and week out. I would rather less hourly rate with all my entitlements than sigh an EBA.

 

100% true. New recruits are brainwashed. They start snitching on fellow workers thinking they are going to climb the ladder to a better position. They work their butts off then management screws them over. Disillusionment sets in, they have a breakdown or quit. NEw lot of recruits come in. Same thing over. lol

 

That must be the generic business plan, lol! I think workplace loyalty is done for these days.

 

100% agree. Now is the time to buy farm land IMO

Something will absolutely happen in the short term. Nobody will see it coming .

 

Yep.....can't see it now...but definitely in the next 4-6 years. Once COVID settles......

 

What bubble


China's bond defaults hit record high of $18bn in first half

Chinese companies defaulted on a record 116 billion yuan in the first half of the year, according to Shanghai DZH, a supplier of internet financial information services. The full-year figure is likely to surpass the past record, logged in 2020, of over 187 billion yuan and hit an all-time high.

 

No bubble...its just an illusion?
This is why they want to pop it...but whilst doing that they may also cause a catastrophe. ......the Western country debt levels are looking small compared to China...as I said watch China...this is where the next GFC will come from.....

 

Chinese companies are already starting to feel it!

 

that china credit impulse though..

I think they'll make a example out of evergrande. The 'expert' economists predict this will directly impact 20 thousand + businesses. Indirectly crashing commercial property and ultimately changing lending laws.

what's next people? Global stimulus? Smart contracts?