China property bust article....

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hammer, 7th Sep, 2021.

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  1. Harris

    Harris Well-Known Member

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    You have been talking of 'implosions' all around the world and the prop markets in Aus since I started reading your posts... The myth of Japan vs Aus vs US vs Europe etc has been busted many times with stats. I think at some stage we need to stop flagging the dead horse of comparing negative population, zero immigration, negative GDP growth and fastest ageing demography of Japan with fast growing younger and vibrant nations.
     
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  2. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    You make a great point...this is a 100% correct.

    But ask the question...if the Chinese govt is forcing people to keep the money there...putting in a lot of controls on businesses....putting gag orders/restrictions in China...would you as a billionaire invest there?

    I am worried...previously I was concerned the next GFC/Depression type like event would eventuate out of the USA...but it is increasingly looking like it may eventuate out of China....it is now a $12USD economy....

    What they are doing is going to show up somewhere economically....:eek:

     
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  3. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    You make a point. Yes I have been there...on the outside it looks very sophisticated and high tech in a 10-20 cities. But overall it is still a developing country....it is not where Japan was in the 80s...and its GDP per capita show this as well as the quality of life index.

    Having said that in areas like Telecom 5G..and monitoring technology they are ahead.

    The real issue is that China is not transparent...unlike the USA...UK....Australia...etc. They are waging a war perceptions that the communist system is better...but judging by the high profile figures they mysteriously disappearing or shutting down...all is not well in Denmark. My concern is if this affects the 2nd largest economy on the world...Australia will also feel some of this pressure..but I reckon this will be a few years away. I suspect we are now actively diversifying from out China only basket....if we are not we are in for rough ride.

     
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  4. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Sheer numbers alone and the economy of scale with this country is almost unfathnomable.
     
  5. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would not worry too much about this article as the Chinese adapt very quickly ..Myself with the recovery with GDP and ''earnings '' growing i would be more worried about the stock prices as thier markets have already priced in all the good news..
     
    Last edited: 9th Sep, 2021
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Precisely. It's totally laughable when I hear folks say china is on the brink. Puuuuulsease.

    They can create whatever they need if push comes to shove. They've done it many times before. Their government is set up as such that they can act within hours which what may take western countries months to decide lol.
     
  7. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Aha, I find eastern culture and philosophy intriguing, they know stuff we westerners do not, or have forgotten.
     
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  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I own a lot of property....and lately have been taking profit...I am deleveraging ...so I comment from my concerns....not now but in a couple of years when post COVID debt hangover and the inflation genie may rear its head.

    I am at the point...where I have enacted my exit strategy as I am concerned global debt. As I stated in another post...it is China's manipulation of economic matters which concern me the most. They are now the second largest economy...I used to think the next issue would come from the USA...increasingly I am worried it will come from China. Can't finger it ...but when China catches a cold we are going to hurt...I am hoping we are already diversifying from them quickly..it won't happen overnight but it will happen within the next 5-7 years.

     
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  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I've lived in East Asia for many years and with all their faults etc, their wisdom is unparalleled to most western societies imo.
     
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  10. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Probably where I will retire, or a 50/50 split between there and Aus.
     
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  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Me too:) we've already organised it. Probably 50/50 too.
     
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  12. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Great minds hey ;)
     
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  13. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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    Rumour is the government will not bail them out. 300BN in debts won't be repaid.
    Shares down 80% YoY.

    PPI up 9.5% YoY in china, yet inflation at 0.8% YoY. Something doesn't add up.
    A majority of chinese stocks continue to sell off.

    The start of a bubble bursting. 100%

    They say don't bet against china? Well I did and I won ;)
     
  14. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Evergrande is down 75% this year. They fell by almost 10% in a day to HK$3.35, which is below the listing price when the company floated on the Hong Kong market in 2009.

    Credit Suisse and Citibank are no longer accepting the bonds of another Chinese property developer- Fantasia as collateral.

    South Korean property actually boomed despite government intentions to make it more affordable in recent years. Perhaps the same will happen in China. I don't know and I cannot invest there as I'm not Chinese...
     
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  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep this is not funny...I am seriously worries...the Beijing under Xi is thinking they can control and bring down a market ...they can't. 300B is bigger than 80 of the economies of world...unbelievable.

    Funds are dumping Chinese stocks....I reckon you will see billionaires quietly move money out and then leave the country.

    The reason they are doing this is they have no options their debt to GDP is the highest in the world...even higher than Japan. Only 15 years ago....it had very little debt.

    China's debt problem

    This is not good....if they go down...the whole world will follow. They are now 65% of the US GDP. About 13% of the Global GDP.
     
  16. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't the U.S have a teensy little debt problem themselves?
     
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  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yes they do...so does Japan....EU...but China is much higher as shown in the comparisons chart. China spent it on ghost cities.....
     
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  18. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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    Evergrande unable to pay freight.
    They will stop paying the banks at a later part of this month.

    Federal reserve to announce tapering in October, in 11 days.

    No problem here. Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and co will all gather and extend the debt ceiling. Nothing to see here. Its actually bullish unless it fails to pass. If it fails to pass well you'll wanna be extinct anyway.

    Its only the top 40% of the top 5% of investors selling (most likely blackrock, citadel, etc), no biggie!
     
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Let's see....few years before all the cracks really show. Thus why I am reducing debt . I need it to not pear shaped till 2024...even mid 2023 is okay...at that point I am at $1m debt. So no biggie
     
  20. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

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    Bust boom cycles happen in the space of 12, 18 months nowadays. I expect some pretty wild swings.

    I mean most big investors in China have lost 40% YoY. Can you stomach a 40% loss?
     
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