China and Taiwan?

As the Australia's economy moves towards it's future ..What do you think would happen if China takes Taiwan back and the effect worldwide and on it's regional neighbours and within Australia?..

Is China really about to invade Taiwan?

 

China and Taiwan is their geographical territory.
What business do Australia have?
History lesson how Taiwan was form - straight from Taiwan Government website.
-
After a civil war within Mainland China.

No difference to a civil war within United State of America.

Note: Taiwan is currently in a drought. They are in a lot of trouble if they don’t get any rain.

 

Well technically they are both Chinas. One is the People's Republic version (i.e. communist/dictatorship), and the other is Republic of China (i.e. Taiwan, democratic version). I know which one I prefer.

It is our business? Technically no, but given Taiwan is just the first step that P.R. China wants to conquer, it would probably but our long term strategic interest to align with the west to defend Taiwan if required.

 

Taiwan is geographically different to the China mainland it is on the Okinawa Plate and formed by the same volcanic activity as the Philippines. The natives are Malayo Polynesian the same as Philippines and Indonesia . The Chinese Monarchy took control in 1885 the Republic of China took refuge their in 1949 from a marxist dictator and still are. The CCP has threatened stop Australian and other ships from using international shipping Lanes. Lanes Australia is reliant on. Australia has vital interest in Taiwan and alliance obligations Taiwan as alleys to help if distressed by drought. What Business does a a Bully and his cronies have telling every-body what they can and cant do ?

 

I don’t know about who’s the bully?
Western colonialism or a country that hasn’t try to take over the world?
History lesson and written in books. Try piecing all the dots and don’t let it distract you from the truth. Hey don’t need to look too far. Within the last 200 years will do.

 

So if China did attempt to "take over the world", we should:

• Look at our own history and give them a free pass?
• And / or not be allowed to criticize it?

Isn't that the crux of what you're saying?

And who is "we" exactly?

What if you're the decedent from a nation that has had no colonial history but have now migrated to one - am I allowed to be critical? What if I married someone who is - my children are now mixed...are they allowed to mildly criticize? Or STFU 50% of the time (maybe only on alternating days)? And how long should one be prosecuted for the sins of their fathers? 200 years? Does it fade instantly at 201? Or never? Does it buy the other side the right to act in the same way forever? Or maybe they're allowed to start just 1x war without prosecution? What are the rules here exactly?

Your response is exactly what the CCP have been arming / training their own citizens with - deflection. The moment you criticize the CCP, they are quick to respond back; look at your history you hypocrites. Yes - look at my history. The one that we are allowed to openly debate, the one that many are ashamed of, the one that is allowed to go into history books and be reflected on and learned from. The one that no one wants to repeat.

That's a lot of words for what I'm trying to say: everything can be criticized. Including those on our own side. No one gets a free pass.

 

I much prefer the assumed course of China of pre 2015 or so rather than the reality. A regular read of Global Times is informative, as was the recent list of 14 demands.

To the matter at hand, PRC will likely have full control of ROC by 2030 or so. This might not look like a conventional invasion but more grey conflict.
US will not have the commitment required to stop it. Japan will fast track nuclear weapons capability as a result of not being secure under US umbrella. South Korea will be close behind. Lots of discussions in AU will be had as well. Bit of a disaster for non proliferation really.

AU will have to ditch the deputy sheriff caper as the tenuous security trade off won’t stack up. We will be needing to do more kowtowing and keeping “off radar” to minimise trade penalties of a peevish PRC while continuing down the path of hypersonics, air and sub-surface defence and a sovereign deterrent.

Will be a difficult balancing act with a lot of drama to come.

 

1. i think the term communist/dictatorship is so out dated, China has moved away from that system. Its not exactly democratic but definitely not communism/dictatorship like North Korea.
   
   Below is an interesting comparison which I cut and paste from Quora.
   
   1. Ideology:
   1. The West is a democracy-leaders are chosen based on votes.
   2. China is a meritocracy-leaders are chosen based on merit. A political newbie like Donald Trump would never be president in China; instead, all senior officials are usually boring old men.
2. Business:
   1. West: The businesses control the government (via lobbying). This makes many Western nations more like an oligarchy than a democracy.
   2. China: The government controls the businesses (state capitalism).
3. Strategic Sectors:
   1. West: Most companies in strategic sectors are private.
   2. China: All companies in strategic sectors are SOEs. Elsewhere, private companies are common.
4. Media:
   1. West: Media has bias and lies, but at least it usually has freedom of speech.
   2. China: Media has bias and censorship, but at least it rarely lies. (Censorship or omission is neutral, not lying. If I stay slient when asked a question, I’m being neither honest nor lying.)
5. Propaganda:
   1. West: Media and politicians say what you want to hear.
   2. China: Media and politicians say what they want you to hear.
6. Infrastructure:
   1. West: Demand and usefulness for infrastructure must be calculated beforehand.
   2. China: “Build it and they will come.”
7. Judicial System Bias:
   1. West: More bias favoring the rich, big business, whites, and females.
   2. China: Pro-government bias. And prosecutors are more risk-averse, only taking cases they are confident in, resulting in a 99% conviction rate. (Japan and South Korea are similar.)
8. Intellectual Property:
   1. West: “Everyone respect it!”
   2. China: “Steal what? Also, your company might have to share key technology with us to do business here.”
9. Genome Editing:
   1. West: “I’m not too sure about this. It seems dangerous and we shouldn’t ‘play god’ to offend religion and mess with nature.”
   2. China: “Wow, this is amazing! Its a whole new industry! Imagine the science and money behind this! Let’s subsidize it!”
10. Property Rights:
    1. West: “No, its fine. We won’t build this freeway or bridge on your land if you don’t want us to.”(Unless its eminent domain.)
    2. China: “Sorry, but you must relocate. We must build it for the greater good. Don’t worry, we’ll compensate you.”
11. Planning:
    1. West: Politicians only care about the next election.
    2. China: Politicians have loooooooooooong term plans.
12. Decision-makers:
    1. West: The people are always right. Give them power (democracy).
    2. China: The experts are always right. Give them power (meritocracy).
13. Decision-making:
    1. West: “Let’s debate. YOUR opinion matters.”
    2. China: “Let’s produce results. Efficiency matters. No time to debate.”
14. Foreign Policy:
    1. West: “You MUST adopt our ideology.” (Unless you’re a GCC state with lots of oil.)
    2. China: “We don’t discriminate based on ideology, let’s just trade.” (Unless its something that meddles with internal politics and defense.)
15. Neo-Imperialism:
    1. West: “OMG, Chinese infrastructure loans in developing nations is neo-imperialism!”
    2. China: “OMG, the West interfering with developing nations’ internal affairs and invading them is neo-imperialism!”
16. International Law:
    1. West: “We follow it best, so we are never the bad guys! Everyone needs to be more like us!”
    2. China: “Not fair! These laws are rigged, it has pro-Western bias! Don’t you dare impose it on us!”
17. Resentment:
    1. West: “Everyone else’s culture, religion, ideology, morals, work ethics, etc. is inferior. Keep them out of our borders and don’t let their nation surpass us!”
    2. China: “The West and Japan has bullied us for too long. Don’t let it happen again!”
18. Finger-pointing:
    1. West: “You are so evil because you aren’t democratic!”
    2. China: “You are so evil because you keep interfering with my internal affairs!”

 

Taiwan doesn’t want to be independent. They don’t want to be not part of China. Get it people? The Taiwanese want to be part of China.

 

This is profoundly incorrect on almost every measurable piece of evidence we have regarding this issue. I'm all ears and eyes if your assertion can be supported by multiple data points.

 

I was only addressing the totalising comment of "The Taiwanese want to be part of China" and "They don’t want to be not part of China" which is just not true. I heard this phrase all the time when I lived in China and it was often never supported by anything other than raw emotion and nationalism.

I no doubt acknowledge there is a percentage of Taiwanese who support a One China and this is split in two camps. Camp one supporting it led by Taiwan (low numbers) and camp two wanting to be ruled by the CCP (more popular). The third position is wanting independence and these numbers jump around depending on tensions in the region and if the Kuomintang are in power, which they currently are not. I guess there's the rest who just like things the way they are. There is, however, a growing number of young Taiwanese who see themselves first as Taiwanese and second as Chinese. This is the same as Hong Kong.

I don't think Taiwan will declare independence, nor do I think anything positive would come from it. The current stalemate is sufficient to keep tensions low enough for both nations to adequately function without the threat of CCP invasion.

 

I suspect this may have been a previous stance - until they saw what's happened to Hong Kong, who were assured/promised the status quo, of semi-democracy and independence, would be maintained after assimilation back into China ...

... didn't take long for China to reneg on it's promises and wield the iron bar.

Be rather frightening for those living in Taiwan, who have grown used to a certain level of freedom, self governance and quasi-democracy autonomy

 

Not really. I haven't read anything regarding calls for independence from decision makers around the world. There might be individuals within governments saying things and the media enjoy hyping things up, but generally I don't think so.

 

Now they're bringing the fight to us.
Chinese guided missile destroyer aims laser at RAAF surveillance aircraft

We've obviously snookered ourselves but IF we could find other markets, first thing I'd do is stop exporting iron ore to them. Then again, it'll probably backfire and one fine day down the track we'll probably get invaded for our resources.

 

China is closely watching the Russia/Ukraine interaction ... to judge where a line is drawn by the west

 

Very much so.. testing how strong Biden is, seeing what the US will bare... and whether NATO will defend that line in the sand. Think, if this would have happened in 195x - 198x into external territory this would be very quickly WWIII... yet now, Putin wants to re-unite its former territories such as Ukraine into his new vision, and the rest of the world may do little militarily.

China is only one "historical" map away from including SK, Japan and Philippines in its territorial maps too... Then one day Australia. Why buy our resources for billions when they can take it for "free"?...

 

And sadly, this is my thinking as well.