CG in Commercial Properties!

Discussion in 'Commercial Property' started by Chris21, 25th Jul, 2021.

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  1. Chris21

    Chris21 Well-Known Member

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    There are lot resources and stats around CG for residential properties over long period of time - all the way up to last 40 years.

    How do you find similar stats for a commercial property like industrial warehouse, child care centre or medical practice? How do find CG history of a commercial property , which is in market ?

    Thanks in advance!
     
  2. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    You invest in CIP for cashflow, you won't find any literature on CG.
     
  3. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    I can tell you the passing rental growth for 10+ commercial properties for up to 27years.
    (Not the C G as have not sold anything)
     
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  4. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Annual reports of CPTs and REITs.

    The Y-man
     
  5. Chris21

    Chris21 Well-Known Member

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    Okay. I guess it will depend on type of commercial property and location. On average , what will be rental growth like ? Will be it CPI 2.5-3% or more ? If more , how much? Based on my reading so far, rental also dictates the price. So Rental growth = CG growth?
     
  6. Chris21

    Chris21 Well-Known Member

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    I am going to ask stupid question. What is CPT? Where can I find annual report for a child care , medical center or industrial warehouse ? Is that something real-estate agent or buyer agent can provide ? :)
     
  7. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    In the good old days you would dumpster dive the accountant's office for discarded annual reports which missed the shredder.
     
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  8. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Commercial property trusts and real estate investment trusts.

    Won't be easy, but you could get the annual values of the properties held in a particular trust as reported eg
    CIP Financial Annual Reports | REIT Australia | Centuria Industrial REIT

    Specifically compendiums like:
    https://centuria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/CIP-HY21-Property-Compendium.pdf


    The Y-man
     
  9. Rooky

    Rooky Well-Known Member

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    I am also watching this thread. Please share rental growth details you mentioned.
     
  10. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    So as an example, 6 Macdonald rd Ingleburn NSW in 2019:
    upload_2021-7-25_22-18-50.png


    In Dec 2020:

    upload_2021-7-25_22-19-40.png


    So book val has gone up from $25m to $27m
    However, Cap rate has fallen from 5.5% to 5.00%
    WALE now down to 3.8 years.

    The Y-man
     
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  11. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    IIRC trusts aren't required to revalue their entire portfolio annually so there may not be a complete update of asset values annually.

    We were only getting vals on ⅓ of our portfolios annually, even then it was a mammoth task.
     
  12. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Plus I hope it makes it a bit clearer to the OP that because the val's are a function of the lease (cap rate, expiry, strength of tenants etc), so an identical building next door could show a drop in val, because the tenant went bust and it's been vacant for 6 months.

    The Y-man
     
  13. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    Yard rental $0 to $5 m2 1997 today $25 to $35m2
    Premise $20 to $30 m2 1997 today $100 to $120m2
    Lessors interest two 7 year reviews rental up 130% ( does not include the big land increases over last two years)
    Interest 10% 1997 today 2.7%
    Yields 1994 to 1997 12% to 18% Today yields 4% to 6%
     
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  14. Rooky

    Rooky Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Beano.
     
  15. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    So a $10m portfolio of yard in 1997 returned $1.4m with a cost of $1m so a profit of $400k (calculated with 100% borrowing)

    In 2021 the $10m portfolio returned $8.4m less cost of $270k so a profit of $8.1m every year :p
    Again calculated as with 100% borrowings

    Boo hoo :mad:I invested in a diverse property o_O portfolio (not all land) ...and I did not buy $10m of properties in 1997 only $4m by 1997 :(
     
    Last edited: 27th Jul, 2021
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  16. Rooky

    Rooky Well-Known Member

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    Its very impressive return and shows power of compounding.
     
  17. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member

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    A lot of the rental income you are seeking is private as it relates to the tenants costs. So you do not tend to get publicly available rental data on commercial properties.

    I would be unhappy if my business rent paid to the landlord was shown around to the world.
     
  18. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    It only takes a title search or three to get the leases if they are registered.
     
  19. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    Every day of the week you can see thousands of details of tenancies .:rolleyes:
    All genuine and shown for everyone to see.:cool:
    Just look at any property for sale and any valuation report .:eek:
    If your property has been marketed for sale your rental would be known:mad:, if your company is a public company or required to show the details under the Govt financial disclosures then a bit of detective work could well show your rents :(.
    I have hundreds of tenants rental shown in my dozens and dozens of valuation reports .;)

    As Scott said registered leases have their details available to the public :rolleyes:

    I would not be surprised if your rental is already known to many persons already. :eek:
     
  20. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member

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    My lease is not registered and I am not a public company. If the landlord chose to sell the property they would quote the tenant profile and would most likely not show the incentives paid. I appreciate the leasing agent would have the details shown and they could disclose them to other agents. However getting that information for a general person on the rent costs paid by me today is difficult.