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Certainty ? ...... There is no certainty

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by See Change, 22nd Oct, 2015.

  1. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Certainty ? There is no certainty

    I've seen the issue of certainty raised in a couple of situations in relation to predictions in the last week

    One of our new permabear trolls ( someone who is forever predicting a property slump ..... ) said he was certain that a prediction , that had close to 5 year left to run, was wrong . Regardless of whether I agree with the prediction , regardless of the likelihood of it happening , at this stage to say that is wrong is intellectually dishonest .

    By coincidence , after a two month lull punctuated by missed properties and rejected offers we had two offers accepted yesterday , and as happens every so often , I woke in the middle of last night suffering from Buyers remorse , the sleep at night factor was broken .

    Would the APRA changes affect the market everywhere including Brisbane ?
    Would all of those Sydney investors be concerned by the latest round of negativity from the SMH and decide that buying at the moment in Brisbane was too risky ?
    Would CBA , NAB , ANZ announce even bigger rate rises than Westpac and cause the property market to tank , sending Australia into a recession ?
    Would it turn out that China's growth was even lower than predicted sending a financial shock wave around the world ?

    The list of possible reasons why not to buy is and will always be endless .

    After breakfast , I went to my computer, and there was a pm from a forumite asking for certainty .

    A member had just bought in Brisbane and were suffering from buyers remorse .
    The question ?

    Was I certain Brisbane is going to go up ?

    Mmm .....

    What do they think I am , some sort of omnipresent guru , an oracle who know everything ? Alas no.

    I'm just a reasonably smart person who shares his thoughts on an Internet forum about property investing . I've been a part of this community since 2001 , I've met many other forumites in real life and have gone from being a wet behind the ears newbie to being an experienced investor .

    I can be confident , I can have expectations , I can study what happened in the past and look at what is happening at the moment , but the one thing I don't have , and to the best of my knowledge , no one has , is a working crystal ball or a Delorian with a fusion reactor . That's what you need for certainty .

    What I can do is , do my research , manage risks and have back up plans .

    While we now buy multiple properties over fairly short time frames , I have a good income and a job that is about as bullet proof as any around . I don't make the 500k plus that some people make in certain businesses , but I do know I'm not going to be unemployed one week after a GFC hits .

    We have reserves in LOC's with different banks , I have income and disability insurance , and my wife will be well off if I drop dead . I have a back up plan there as well . Mom is 92 , Dad is 89 and they're both in pretty good health for their age . My wife's parents are also in the mid 80's so we need to have a healthy retirement fund.

    The only thing I can be certain about is that if I hadn't taken " risks " a few years ago , I wouldn't be in the relatively healthy financial position we are now in .

    Having said that , even that's not certain . I no longer buy regular lotto tickets , so maybe I missed out on a first prize somewhere along the line . Though outside a decent powerball first prize , we're better off now ....

    Today I rang up an agent I've know in Logan for over ten years to find out what was happening there . Market gradually getting stronger . No sudden drop of in investors , lots of BA's buying properties for Sydney investors . No massive boom but certainly no sign of the drop that is impacting Sydney .

    I'll sleep better tonight .

    Certainty ? There is no certainty .

    That's being honest .

    Cliff
     
  2. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but what is your strategy?
     
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  3. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Clitt....I agree about the below post in relation to Brissie...the economy in Qld is starting to lift. The Chinois have also discovered Brissie

    As for Sydney...things in the property market are not as rosy...the economy will travel ok..but it is settling after period of out of norm growth...

    As for recession....the banks don't have as much control....China is the one to watch.

    Great to see you managed to get off the blue pill today. :)
     
    Last edited: 22nd Oct, 2015
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  4. Sam Yue

    Sam Yue Well-Known Member

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    Good on you, Cliff. The good health and long longevity are the best things for their children.
     
  5. THX

    THX Well-Known Member

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    Yes....but, will Brisbane go up?
     
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  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I think so....the dollar is down...tourism is coming back well to replace mining.
     
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  7. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Certainty...death and taxes!!:p

    But seriously it's all in the eye of the beholder,some will see the glass half full some will see it half empty.
     
  8. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Good onya Cliff.

    Reminds me of that saying, something about preference to regretting action over regretting inaction.
     
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  9. Sam Yue

    Sam Yue Well-Known Member

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    APRA is just slowing things down on the markets such as Brisbane. But it is still growing. You are still better off to buy earlier.
     
  10. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    That may be the case . The other alternative is that it might speed up Brisbane . By slowing down Sydney , which it has done , it may well focus more attention on Brisbane as everyone looks for where's next .

    My thinking is that we might have a slight pause , but as everyone realises the worlds not coming to an end , things take off .

    I believe that there is more optimism out there with abbot being replaced by an articulate optimistic Turnbull , business will start spending and everything starts taking off .

    Cliff
     
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  11. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Hopefully . We've bought over 2 mill in the last few months , but I'm not certain .

    Cliff
     
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  12. twistedstats

    twistedstats Well-Known Member

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    I would have thought most people understand that property investing is inherently uncertain.

    For 1st time investors, property investing can be a bit daunting because such a large sum of money is invested in a single asset (usually geared by borrowing). In the end, you just have to do your research to increase your "chances" of good returns and be comfortable with the risks you are taking. I had a chance to buy in 2012 but my risk tolerance was lower than the average forumite and ended up missing out on the boom. Not happy but I don't regret it...
     
  13. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Buy property that goes up in value .....

    Cliff
     
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  14. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    I know something for certain you dont know yet... :p

    "...I rang up an agent I've know in Logan for over ten years to find out what was happening there"
     
  15. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Brush morning and night and floss once a day.:p
     
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  16. Sam Yue

    Sam Yue Well-Known Member

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    Cliff's is to buy in a rising market and sale in the top of the cycle. And hype hype hype to move the cycle faster! :p
     
  17. ZOMG

    ZOMG Well-Known Member

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    Great post Cliff. It reminds me of a lesson learnt during poker days- focus on the fundamentals and getting the process right rather than being results oriented. If your strategy works, you'll be profitable in the long term. Financial investments, similar to poker, is full of variations outside of our control. Long as you're making the right decisions, you'll be alright!
     
  18. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Every time I buy I am convinced it is the top of the market and the market is about to crash. I have been 100% wrong about that so far. I keep buying at the start of a boom. One property performed a lot worse than I expected, then a lot better. Another one performed a lot better than I expected. Its funny though, because I'm always confident when I buy, even though I am completely wrong about the market at the time and properties don't perform how I expect... :)
     
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  19. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    or buy properties which won't go down as much as the others ;)
     
  20. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Or buy solid properties that you can pick up under market value - either just before or during a rising market
    Or something that is simply very well located.
    Or something you can value add to. (And/or possibly increase yields on. Or develop)
    Or a combination of the above... ;)
     
    Last edited: 23rd Oct, 2015
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