Can we be direct for a minute?

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Silverson, 2nd Jul, 2018.

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  1. Anne11

    Anne11 Well-Known Member

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    Gentlements please chill:)

    I enjoy the discussions, and assume that others do too.

    Investing is boring, discussing about it is interesting for me.

    I have gained more undestanding from the discussions about my own investing behaviour and why I invest. Please keep the discussions coming.
     
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  2. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    I’m at a loss, why you are upset at what you have highlighted and underline.

    Perhaps I should re-phrase it.
    Missing a few warts or ignoring a few warts if you are diversified won’t hurt you too badly.
    Failing to save or invest at all will cost you dearly.

    It was simply a paragraph to put my posts in the context that I see them– ie they are fiddling at the edges in the big scheme of what’s important.

    This communication thing is not my gig. I will bid you farewell

    Happy Journey's everybody.
     
  3. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    As I stated, play the ball not the man!
    @dunno @Nodrog what are your thoughts on TLS/telcos at the moment? Good buying opportunity at present?
     
  4. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    I am not dividend recycling if that is what you are asking?
    I don't have a large mortgage - and I can (and hopefully will) pay it off in full over the next 2.5years.
    So I am just putting everything into that. I don't have much in LICs at the moment - just enough to get started - enough to start learning really. I am still very much a beginner.
     
    Last edited: 5th Jul, 2018
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  5. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    I am sorry to hear you say this. I have enjoyed following your posts and love that you are able to do in depth analysis on costs, shares, LICs, etc. I don't have the knowledge or background to even know where to start with regards to analysis. Perhaps as I learn more over time I will get there.

    I have enjoyed reading your posts and thoughts. And it has allowed me to see things differently - to ask more questions, and to find new ways of looking at LICs and shares. All of this is very useful and appreciated. I really do hope you continue on the forums and continue to share your thoughts and ideas.
     
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  6. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    You know @Nodrog often says something very similar - only his is something like - Never let the perfect plan get in the way of the good plan (or something like that). Essentially the same thing.

    I suspect you two are kinda in agreement in a round about way.
     
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  7. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    bloody hell @Nodrog @dunno , I understand what was intended but can also see how this could be read differently - something like this wouldn’t occur face to face.....limitations of the written word. So let’s apply the spirit of Hanlon’s razor (without inferring stupidity)

    Enough of this sulking please Gentlemen :p
     
  8. Vassago

    Vassago Well-Known Member

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    My sole long term hold that isnt a LIC or speccie is ASX Ltd

    Pretty much has a monopoly, lots of growing cash profits, minimal capex and no debt.

    Bought it a ~3yrs ago at $36 and thought it was expensive then but liked the fundamentals. Now it is $65. Paid nice dividends on the way, just wished I bought more.
     
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  9. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    Not sulking.

    I’ve tried this social written communication thing and don’t enjoy it. Based on the number of times it seems I’ve unintentionally annoyed Nodrog and probably others, I’m also not very good at it. I’m simply re-allocating time back to the world I enjoy and where communication for me is easier.

    Nodrog has over 5000 posts – He obviously enjoys this online posting world and is good at it. – He should continue, and I should go and do what I enjoy, a logical allocation of time to greatest enjoyment.

    Now to work out how to stop those PC emails.

    Sorry @Silverson for derailing thread - Maybe if you ever convene a meetup to discus direct shares I could attend and share.
     
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  10. Anne11

    Anne11 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you don’t take this the wrong way, that I think you and @Nodrog are very similar in many ways: both are passionate about investing and helping others. If the reason for you to post is to share and exchange ideas, I don’t see why you would stop posting because you feel you were misunderstood.

    Many of us value your contributions and opinions.

    If you feel like taking a break from us needy lot, please do so and come back when you feel like it.

    Thanks a lot guys,
     
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  11. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Not your fault @dunno, mate it’s mine. I have a bad habit of misunderstanding things and behaving badly at times (too many times now to be honest) but the kind members here put up with my senile behaviour. I should have been kicked out or left voluntarily long ago.

    It would be a shame for you to leave as I have nothing new to offer (5000 posts is about 4,999 too many:oops:) but you have a wealth of knowledge, experience and skill to take these discussions to an entire new level.

    PC can not afford to lose valuable new blood such as you so until I can learn to avoid misunderstandings and behave more sensibly I’m going to switch to lurking mode:cool:.
     
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  12. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    The home brew does have some undesirable side effects ! Haha

    In all seriousness, we need to stop being silly and continue discussing and sharing our thoughts.
    It's ok to disagree and to have different views etc, could you imagine how boring life would be if we all agreed.
    Plus as wonderfull as LIC/ETF's are I was starting to get sick of all the one way traffic and discussion hence this thread! So @dunno best you do a u turn and get back in here!!
    Now, where were we?
     
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  13. Anthony Brew

    Anthony Brew Well-Known Member

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    @dunno

    For what it's worth, I've found your posts invaluable in telling the 'other side', and I'm particularly wary of blindly following one-sided information which it seems many tend to do. For instance, a certain very smart person considers mining, REITs, international stocks, index funds, bonds and basically everything other than Australian industrials to be a sub-par and basically everyone who has read it follows it religiously without looking into the fact that not all mining companies are crap, that it doesn't matter if REITs have a 100% payout ratio because you can just re-invest the dividends to grow your own asset base, and that deciding to not need international shares is merely an opinion and will come with it's own risks.

    The basis of all decisions is education, and your comments help educate. I'm not understating it to say that It would be a great loss if you did not continue, and I'm sure your thoughts are valued by a lot of people besides just me despite many of us often being unable to reply and add to the discussion due to our lack of experience, possibly making it appear like your comments are not so welcomed when they are.
     
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  14. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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    Who cares, this isn’t the Polotics and Relgion Forum, no one is here to convert anyone else.
    We are all here to make money, what you buy, when you buy and when you sell, if you sell is up to YOU.
    Everyone put you big pants back on and get on with alternate opinioning.
    Red hot tip, there ain’t no silver bullet.
    Spend less than you earn
    Borrow less than you can
    Buy what you can (insert your chosen investment here) when you can
    Copy paste ad infinitum
     
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  15. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    This is true. LIC's have attracted a lot of people on the great Aussie catch cry of 'low fees' but like most things of this nature....you end up getting what you pay for. There are a multitude of problems with them that I have spoken about elsewhere, the biggest of which is that you are often literally not actually getting what you pay for due to NTA value more often than not being less than the price on the exchange. The performance based fees are also a big negative in my view, if they ever do have a good year (and most have failed to do this regularly) a good chunk of the benefit will be siphoned off by the managers. On the flip side they are an easy and convenient way to broaden exposure and are low risk and low base fees, this will be more important to some than performance benchmarks etc.

    This is an RRG of the LIC's on ASX. Rotations on the right hand side show leading position in relation to the benchmark XJO meaning a higher return than the index), rotations on the left hand side show lagging position to the benchmark meaning a lower return than index. As a group LIC's perform quite poorly.

    LIC's
    upload_2018-7-5_17-51-59.png

    Compare this to some of the share opportunities out there (you will know many of the names in the chart below). These are taken directly from my newsletter over the past 6 months (some free back issues are available on my education site blog). Many of these have consistently been leading XJO. Obviously picking direct shares and working out when to get in and out of them is complicated and time consuming. It will not suit everyone but I think this illustrates the point very well if you can do a half decent job of it.

    Market Whisperer Share Opportunities
    upload_2018-7-5_17-56-54.png

    If you are willing to do some good quality self education and mange risks sensibly you have every chance of good results, however everyone in my view ALSO needs a more automated 'managed solution' as part of their set up to feed profits in to for longer term.

    Back to the original post and questions arising from it, nothing wrong with a bit of educated stock picking but always best to seek quality advice/good resources on any of these areas before making changes. I have spoken about this elsewhere but for most people a 3 tier plan is wise.

    1. Super - compulsory, tax strategies, long term and preservation driven.
    2. Managed plan - Automated, high quality, efficiently structured portfolio & cash flow based set up outside super. Depending on circumstances, it can be quite a complex task to design and establish the 'ideal' tax efficient structure with room and flexibility for continual development plus a risk based cash flow algorithm (using +2% interest rate sensitivity test on borrowings, inflation adjusted returns, etc etc) . Once set up it should not require a lot of ongoing attention or complex decision making and should be easy to maintain and contribute in to.
    3. Personal plan - Using your own skill set to generate an excess return above the norm (or what is the point?). This can be any number of things, a P/T business, property strategy, stock picking etc etc.

    Seeking high quality advice/mentorship is IMO the fastest route to securing long term success and keeping risks managed appropriately for any of these plans. Other reasons for seeking guidance are avoiding behavioural issues and personal biases. This is particularly important for numbers 1 and 2.

    Some people only ever do number 1, normally this does not provide enough for retirement. The aim of number 1 and 2 is to build a passive income stream that requires almost no maintenance or attention from your own efforts.

    If you do number 3, need to be careful of a few pitfalls....

    1. Leverage - never get carried away with this, if you are just starting out - no leverage for at least the first couple of years is a good policy. Must also prove yourself profitable before using any form of leverage. Finally if you use margin staying under 30% has proven a good approach in post GFC back testing.
    2. Capital - Allocate relatively small amount of capital in the early stages.
    3. Profit - Always move part of profits down the scale of risk consistently or use dividends. This is where using high quality fund managers as part of your structure makes it easy to commit some of the profit in to long term 'no brainer' portfolios.
    4. Accounting - Do yourself a favour and pay to get advice on how to set a structure up so it won't cost you a fortune every year for the accountant to wade through reams of paperwork, holding statements, etc. There are plenty of solutions available where you can hold direct shares, managed funds, SMA's, term deposits, and more all under a single consolidated account structure. This means you get ONE consolidated tax report each year no matter how complex the mix of assets in the portfolio making the accounting far easier and less expensive. Save you a fortune over the longer term.
    5. Plan - Make sure you stay mostly or exclusively with the blue chips and have an strategic 'method' that you fully understand where the edge comes from and is proven beyond doubt to give you an advantage. You also need strict and appropriate money/risk management habits. Just randomly picking stocks you 'like' or other people told you are 'the next big thing' will always fail spectacularly, you will be shark bait for the pros.

    No Advice
     
    Last edited: 5th Jul, 2018
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  16. pippen

    pippen Well-Known Member

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    AMEN!
     
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  17. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Please explain:D?

    Yours Sincerely
    Pauline H
     
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  18. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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    Darn auto spell and time out to edit.
    Politics and Religion
     
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  19. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    I agree that input from @dunno and @Nodrog is extremely valuable to this forum, but there appears to be some misunderstanding on the tone of the posts.

    Let's just assume that we're all here to be helpful and positive. I am almost certain that none of us are on here to ruffle feathers for the sake of being sadistic.
     
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  20. Realist35

    Realist35 Well-Known Member

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    As long as they keep the competitive edge. You gotta remember, it all depends on one person, Andrew at the moment, someone else in a few years..