Calling all prophets - Where will the market be in...?

Bottom end housing CG to increase at a faster rate and rents to outpace inflation due to lack of new investors entering as a whole with apra changes filtering through to affecting market

 

Fair points.

Those are latest government projections (made in April), but things can indeed change.

 

This would make for an interesting outcome, it's basically expecting a big population growth/demographic shift into the low income area if I'm reading your expectations right. Not impossible with underemployment spiraling right now but still an interesting perspective.

 

this is true- best yields of any cap city mkt combined with affordable entry prices combined with high levels of growth (construction etc) combined with money being spent by foreign and interstate enterprises = higher CG.

 

I would say the opposite. Long term ( 20+years), those who have Melbourne now and hold till then will be millionaires. Short term ( 3 years and less)- who knows but id say some Melbourne markets will noticeably soften and minimal-moderate falls even in some markets.

 

Its just my read on it
If the tightening serviceability across the board for investors and PPOR buyers alike has the impact of reducing borrowing power, then people will possibly

1.settle for a cheaper property
2. Save for longer to afford the property they want so they will rent for longer
3. Can't afford to purchase at all so rent for longer
4. Stay in their existing PPOR for longer reducing stock on market

So these can all impact rental market putting more pressure on existing rentable properties.

I only see one way for rents to go in a growing population like Oz, with restricted lending like now

 

I suggest popping over to Perth if you don't think rents can go down

 

The long term trend is always upwards though. The only way it could go down is if population growth stopped (through radical Government policies) or if deflation occured and continued for a while e.g. Japan.

 

I did too. Worked out great!

 

Hahah not much movement yet

 

Sure, but you can increase value without the market going up.

 

I expect Australian capital cities to soften, most markets have or been doing this.
APRA and interest rate rises will impact of servicing debt. If you cant source finance you cant buy, more stock comes to market.
I don't expect a crash but perhaps lack lustre, in other words yields woeful and growth not on the horizon... just part of the cycle

 

There is always a correction after a boom. I can't see why this upsets people. Normal in any cycle.

 

Because Sydney always goes up...

and

You never lose with property....

 

Was 2003 so long ago that people have already forgotten the correction in the Sydney property market? I still remember watching it on tv. Crazy times!

 

.... because when an investor has a mindset to buy, they only want to hear the good stuff, its goes against what they are doing.

A smart investor will always understand the market conditions and that when they buy in a downturn cycle, and not adding any value, there is a pretty good chance they will erode some of the capital base.

On the flip side, the mentality here with this investor will be ......... property always goes up...... and eventually it will, but I call this ..... high risk, because in Australia the rents do not pay your mortgage, not even close. Will be lucky to keep up with inflation in downturns

MTR

 

! I was buying in Sydney and Brisbane all through 2015-2017. Soooo glad I did.

 

Very true, buying in 2015-17 in Sydney was and is very high risk. Round me in inner city prices are already back to 2016 levels.

 

Great to read over old posts, I have learnt so much in the past 3 years and a huge thanks to all posters on this forum regardless of view point. Financially the past near 3 years have been very kind to me in property and happy to report I've sold some stock and locked in profits. I've learnt much about my risks and Australia's, the biggest lessons this forum has taught me is that it's ok to sell and take the profits.

What holds in the next 3 years time will tell.

 

Seems like you made much much money when other did not, in Sydney and everywhere!

so you like inner city south to buy in Sydney now, or wait for more price droppings?