VIC Buying in this two weeks before 1st July in VIC?

Saw this article about Sydney market

"Experts claim buyers have 'rare opportunity' to snap up houses at lower prices - but it will only last for two weeks."

"HOUSE hunters will have a narrow window of opportunity this month to nab homes at lower prices and without the usual stiff competition from rival buyers."

With many buyers waiting to July for stamp duty cuts, others may find it a great opportunity to purchase

I think it would apply to Melbourne market as well, as VIC has similar policy kick in on 1st July for FHOB. Personally I saw less competitor/bidder in auction this week than before, but still a big crowd, and seems less listing property as well. Guess price at the lower end market (600-700k) will have a little price jump (~20k?) after 1st July.

Any thoughts are welcome!! cheers.

 

hard to say, you've also consider that by then the banks may have announced another round of rate rises or the LVR and IO lending changes kicking in hard, plus the possible fire sales of apartments that fail to settle at the end of this month soaking up FHB demand.

 

Interesting time.

My prediction is there will be fierce competition of FHB rush into lower end market (400-500k) after July, so watch out for house price in Northern and Western Melbourne outer ring (eg. Epping, Werribee, or even Melton/Geelong). For a budget of <600k, FHB still have plenty of options in VIC.

 

Might be slightly unrelated but here's my take. In your market I feel like prices won't change or even go up. In nieche markets some homes are snapped up for record bargain prices due to holidays. My mother purchased a MEL CBD apartment on Cup Day for an unbelievable deal and yields almost 10% from short stays. I also 100% relate wth you on this week's auctions, the vibe really gave me the feeling that consumer confidence is at a low. At the end of the day bargains are a mix of knowing your *specific* market area inside out and luck.

 

I've been speaking to a lot of FHB who share the same sentiments and are all in crazy search mode to buy before the 1st of July.
So the theory is fine but the reality is not. When everyone thinks the same thing it doesn't make it in anyway unique. You'll probably find it more competitive leading up as people think it will jump when the reduction kicks in.
Will probably work out opposite.

 

Can't find the thread but fairly sure I read on here that the last time there was a FHO boost there was a dip in the first week followed by a steady climb.

But yeah, who knows what other changes might be lurking around the corner...

 

I have friends who are FHB in (outer east) Melbourne and while they are looking and trying to buy before July 1 there is limited supply under $600k and as soon as July 1 hits there limit will instantly increase to $670k.

I know there are quite a few people in this boat and I think clever sellers are holding on until the changes are in place.

 

I went to Tarneit to look for houses around 400k to 500k mark and they sold them like hotcakes on Sat. Nothing ... nothing is left below $500k. People bought them straight away after the inspection and prices are already crazy. Many buyers queued up to see the houses and made offers.
Prices have already gone up and supply is very limited, so already too late.

This stamp duty saving for FHB is just a stupid idea, prices are now pushed higher and higher. I don't know where you can get a decent house with good size below 500k now. May be better to buy H&L rather than existing houses imo in those areas.

 

What was the area like? Can you tell me more?

 

Tarneit is still developing, so depends on which part of Tarneit you are interested.
Those ones around the Tarneit station are in high demand but the rent income doesn't really reflect that. Rental yield is the poorest for those close to train station as the sale price is too high.

those in older Tarneit closer to Werribee have larger blocks and better streets but not close to the infrastructure.

I think those ones near Davis Road have better potential as the rents there are high and a new "Tarneit West" station was proposed. But in short future (5 years), prices can't get too much higher as it is still quite far to the city and not many things happening. However, the rental yield seems doing a little bit better in this area.

Just my research.

 

I can concur similar exp when I went to Werribee and. Pt cook estates to scope since that announcement One I just gave up coz the queues were just long to have a view of the showroom and plans. Many Indians forming the majority

I am not sure if anyone knows laksa king in Kensington on a Friday night to get in the queues u take a number and wait that is how it is in some of the estates

 

Apartments, units, outer Melbourne and possibly regions will see continued turn-over imo. This deal would be most beneficial to Vic fhbuyers because stamp-duty is so ginormous there. It's a good saving for them.
No doubt sales are down a bit atm. It's the quick and the dead. RE agents and vendors are allowing the process to take a little longer than usual so that the younguns can get their discount. A lot of the stock on market is actually already under contract.

 

All this article does is create the opposite effect. FHB runs around crazy trying to buy before the grant as he or she knows its gunna be fierce competition july 1.

 

I don't think there will be much effect from the grant this time round as sentiment has shifted. And if price drops continue to accelerate into July, many FHBs could put off buying, especially for couples who can rent for cheap due to the apartment oversupply in the city.

Might even get some developer discounting as investors find they are unable to settle or decide to cut their losses and sell the multiple units or land they bought.

 

Do you guys think there may be more supply to come on the market after July 1? I know if I was looking at selling my house I would wait until July to put it on the market.

 

As a vendor with a good IP with perfect pricing for a FHB I'd wait to see evidence of an actual noticeable increase in prices before deciding to put that property on the market. I'd only list if the money was good otherwise I'd continue to hold, this is a IP that's been causing me no worries or stress with good tenants so I am in no rush to sell.

Remember it generally takes a few weeks to list the property (drawing up the contract, selecting an agent and preparing everything for marketing).

Last time around, prices went a lot higher just before the FHB boost ended because people rushed into the market and supply was short.

This time I think we'll probably see the biggest boosts to prices right at the beginning and the end - but obviously it's just my opinion. So if buying, my thoughts are, try waiting till everything settles down. If selling, consider getting ready to list now or for the end of the FHB period (or both).

 

Don't think so - it is actually cheaper to rent in the suburbs (Western suburbs tarneit, Pt cook, Williams Landing) than city (360 per week - 3 bedroom home Vs 450 per week for a 1 bed). although yes there is a lot of apartments (rental prices are up from what they were 5 years).

the difference here is first you do not get charged stamp duty on the house you build as it is brand new however the OTP apartments which did not get stamp duty are now getting charged after 1st July. If any drops - it would be in the apartment OTP market. Ppl who are buying H&L are predominantly FHB. families etc and not necessarily the sash of the PCs.

LOL -Look at this developer giving first rights of picks for land estates through bingo.

Melbourne housing estate sold off in developer 'bingo'

 

well 450 vs 360 is a big difference. But if that 450 were to become less than $400, I am sure many FHB would look to rent in the city areas too. It's already happening in Brisbane, with the free month rents etc.. apartment /townhouse landlords are trying to attract tenants with.

WOW looks like the whole indian subcontinent just moved to that estate! LOL. How much were those lots going for do you know ?

Over here in Rochedale and other suburbs there's still an abundance of land coming on to the market from various developers. Take your pick its EOFY sales now just make an offer, all lots discounted.
https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B_yLEzJkx40LM1huQ0hFZlc1NTQ
http://www.rochedaleestates.com.au/images/pdfs/Full-Stage-5.pdf

Couple of small land releases in my neck of the woods also going at $20k discounts.

 

Very different markets here too. Colleagues in Brisbane were happy to buy/live in an apartment, Melbourne ones I know were actively seeking homes. Just got an IP and during the search there are a lot of people looking to buy at opens for older home And H&L packages in the west and north where I was looking. Who knows when the tide turns but it is definitely not slowing from what I have just seen.

 

450 is for a 1 bedroom though (and a small one if you have a dog and 3 individuals it would not work) - well I used to rent out 2-3 bedrooms for 400-500 (100sqm apartments) but that was 6 years ago. Like said although there are so many apartments rents does not seem to be coming down. There is the block apartment renting out $500-$600 per day airbnb in prahan. Don't know , Your H&L over there with the discounts was more like Pt Cook 3-4 years ago.

Only saw the video - must be some outer suburbs west or outer east possibly.