Buying in Melbourne now, it is really that silly?

Sure why not make it 10 years instead of 5 years

 

I think it’s okay being PPOR it’s likely to be a long term hold so u can ride out any lows and wait til the markets high again and long term you’re almost guaranteed to make money if it’s a 15-25 year time frame

 

Ahh. Got it, my bad! I thought you meant for one $400k land property.

Thanks.

 

Your on!

 

Totally agree. We talk about $1M like it was $1. Guys $1M is a lot of money for a lot of people, even if you can get a loan. Remember we are all investors here and still a small % of the whole population. Prices in Melbourne grew too quick while the wages are still low compared to the housing cost.

If you add interests rise (which will happen, who knows when but I think it is close), Royal commission and IO reverting to P&I I see a flat line soon.

 

I am seeing more better buys than a few years ago then ever:

excellent buying Sold 35 Burgundy Drive, Doncaster VIC 3108 on 22 Sep 2018 - 2014446103 | Domain
810k good buying on own block Sold 31 Ashmore Road, Forest Hill VIC 3131 on 22 Sep 2018 - 2014592823 | Domain
opportunities are opening up everywhere and the developers are moving away too 18 Purches Street, Mitcham VIC 3132 - House For Sale | Domain
how about this one
21 Montrose Street, Oakleigh South VIC 3167 - House For Sale | Domain
14 Berala Court, Ringwood VIC 3134 - House For Sale | Domain


IF this rate of fall continues there should be very hot buying at end of year.

 

Hi

I hope you are right, I am waiting to pounce.

Regards,

alicudi

 

Its not just hoping its already happening, Imagine the price points after IO rollover peak in 2019/20.

 

There is an 700-800k house on a busy road and a 1mil bigger block off the back. Both brick. Both in Melbourne. Both need 50-100k of work.

The 700-800k has interest. 1mil does not.

1mil place is better value imo

People can’t get money anymore.

 

I just read this article from The Guardian:
Should we worry about a crash of the housing market? Let's all take a deep breath | Greg Jericho

What do you guys think about it?

If let say the house price goes down, does it mean the price I will pay to buy now in Ringwood, Croydon, Lilydale and surroundings will allow me to buy in Box Hill, Blackburn, Mitcham and surroundings, is that even possible?

 

Wise words Luca

Investing in Melb is high risk IMHO
Easiest way to lose money is buy at peak, worse declining markets

 

And let's be honest, we are not entering a typical phase of a cycle here. We are entering a new credit environment where banks and brokers are being sued, prosecuted, permanent regulations are being put in place.

They are not suddenly going to be lending people 10-15 x income again any time soon if ever. This is going to fundamentally change the market.

Buying a PPOR in Melbourne is one thing, but it's a fairly dead market for investment IMO unless you find niche value of some sort.

 

Isn't every credit tightening a new and untypical phase?


It seems every credit tightening they come up with different ways to do it

Isn't this the pattern for another typical credit tightening

 

Australia’s Housing Correction Marks Its Twelve Month Anniversary With Values Down 2.7% Since Peaking In September Last Year
Looks like falls are accelerating in Melbourne

 

I'll just leave this here:

Edit: Source - CoreLogic-Moody's Home Value Index Forecast Q3 2018

 

What is their reasoning for rebound in 2019? Interest rate cuts, credit loosened up again, more government incentives?

Every source I’ve found predicts declines until 2020. And Tim Lawless recently said he expects continued declines through majority of 2019.

 

Mainly "...rising business investment, particularly in the non-mining sector, a rise in infrastructure spending, above-trend jobs growth, and ongoing low-interest rates. "- Tim Lawless

 

China's pmi for Sept just went flat from trade war, which means factory activity is starting to contract = downturn downunder.

China September factory growth grinds to a halt as export orders tumble: Caixin PMI | Reuters

Expecting a tumble in Aussie stocks and employment numbers in the coming months as long as the trade war gets worse...higher oil prices might help commodity states like qld\wa but probably not nsw/vic nor the Aussie consumer.

Interest rates are also rising consistently as us fed forecast for this year, fed just did another rise last week I think,should see another response from local banks soon..

And note bond yields have gone back to normal with US 10yr consistently above ours for more than a quarter now, just a matter of time before the big money moves out of AUS and back to USD in a big way. US 10yr also above 3% now.

 

Or that could be a blessing for Australia as we export at higher margins to countries who start picking up the manufacturing shortfall from China... like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Americans are still going to want to buy stuff but will look for cheaper alternatives to Chinese made products.

 

It’s referring to national prices or just melb?