VIC Broadmeadows or Frankston?

Hey @Barny , what source do you use to find out days on market and stats of the like?

 

Free Suburb Profile report for Broadmeadows VIC (3047)

Ripe house and Rp data show days on market change from year to year/quarter, but are paid services.

 

When it comes to getting desperate at peak times, who could forget about the appeal Warneet and Hastings.

23 Kallara Rd Warneet Vic 3980 - House for Sale #122894910 - realestate.com.au

My belief is Melbourne is peaking and if people haven't jumped on Frankston North/Broad Meadows yet they never will (needs a demographic and cosmetic upgrade). The liveable area's of Frankston should do well as home buyers now enter the market.

 

Do you all think that Frankston has a fair bit of growth left in it or has it done its dash? It has gone up by $50,000 since last June.

 

My thinking exactly. Started looking there in May and for once thought I might be able to do this investing caper. But now I have finances organised I'm thinking I may have missed the boat.

 

It could be a situation like Western Sydney where it grows for another 18 months though. Maybe nearby suburbs such as Carrum Downs or North Frankston will get the longer term ripple effect.

According to the below suburb profile, the growth really only occurred from August last year. It is definitely a rising market but you can potentially still get some good capital growth equity.

Free Suburb Profile report for Frankston VIC (3199)

What does everyone else think about this?

 

It's a question that no-one can answer. Here are some mixed thoughts, though.
1. Very unlikely that Frankston will be like W. Sydney at this point in time.
2. You're not buying at rock-bottom if you buy into Fr now. It has already started to move. It could go north or south from here or it could fluctuate or plateau. Who knows?
3. It's 6 years since the last peak in Fr. At that time median was 360K. In 2012 it went down to 330K. Now it's up to 410K - 430K.
4. There is diminishing stock available = more competition for a bargain = prices likely to continue rising (can't have it both ways). But there is still good value to be found.
5. What are the drivers? Where are they stronger. If you buy in and prices drop, it's the drivers that give you the strength to hang in there.
6. Look in all areas where the drivers suit you. Then go in for a few offers. Where is the best yield? Where is the best bang for buck? Where are you assured of a constant flow of reliable tenants?
You don't have to narrow it to 1 area. Personally, when I heard about Frankston I just couldn't resist. Then I had to hold for years while values dropped (as they did in all of eastern australia). Now I'm happy again and hoping that values will continue to rise. With all that's going on there and with 1st homebuyer demand, I think they will. I would rather see more 1st homebuyers than investors, though.
7. When houses stagnate in Fr, units do well and vice-versa
8. It's not too late for Fr yet but the time will eventually come. It's quite likely that prices will 'settle' again after the peak whenever it is.
9. If you like it, go for it. Not because of what you hear or read from others but because of yourself. At the same time, don't be put off by a little 'ugliness' in any of the areas you are considering if you think it's something which will soon be transformed.

 

Do you think any where in Melbourne is still worthy of investment for capital growth within the next 2 years?

Do you think there is still good value to be found in Frankston or more in Carrum Downs?

I would like to invest in Victoria to diversify my portfolio into another state but it seems everywhere in Melbourne has grown. I am just wondering whether these areas that are still affordable are going to have double digit growth for another few years still.

 

In the next 2 years for capital growth. As long as migration of 90,000+ people continue to rock up, and we don't hit a recession.
So yes/no answer sorry.

Not sure if you follow Margaret lomas, read her books or watched her videos or attended her seminars. But she picked the time to buy in Frankston was years ago, bout 4 from memory. @WattleIdo can confirm this perhaps. It's not to say it won't continue to do well, I think it will, but you are going to pay a premuim to get in now and hope for growth.
Anyhow, carrum downs is her buy in now/today advice. It's her hotspot.

 

Yeah Margaret Lomas is great and I have read many of her books. Why does she think Carrum Downs is now the place to buy now?

 

Cause it falls into her 20 must ask questions before buying.

 

Carrum Downs has had a decent rise over the last 12 months. Properties that were 300-330k 12 months ago are now hitting the 360-390k mark... New builds start in the high 300's but most are well into the 400's.. Definite mover, but still the cheaper of any suburb surrounding it and on par with Cranbourne prices. Whether its still a good buy in is anyones guess..

 

It's not just the suburb - it's the deal and the yield that you get. Every house is different. If you can find something with a good yield at a good price in a suburb with good infrastucture, go for it. If not, then don't.

 

I've noticed houses selling very quickly in Carrum Downs despite rising prices. Frankston North is a cheaper area but it is hard to find good tenants who want to live there. Friends of mine who bought there had trouble with several lots of tenants who just didn't want to pay the rent. In the end they couldn't stand the stress anymore and sold it. Frankston North houses are old and poor quality however it has decent size blocks and quite a few have been knocked down and replaced by a couple of townhouses.

 

Why are the southern suburbs so much more pricy than the northern though?
I don't understand the mentality, personally id much rather go live 20 minutes away from the CBD in the north than an hour away in the south.
It just seems odd to me. Whats driving this demand in Frankston and Carrum Downs?

Also thoughts on Dovetin?

 

My impression is that pretty much most people buying in Broady are knocking down and dividing, building new townhouses.

 

Yes, correct.

 

Do you think that plays out well for the growth potential of the area?

 

Extremely well. The current old stock looks feral. When you knock down and put pretty new places all around the area becomes attractive. People want to live in new shinny things.

 

Frankston does have something Broady doesn't - natural beauty. 10 kms of Melbourne's best beaches plus some nice bushland and parks and gardens reserves. And where can you still by a bayside house for under $400,000. It's not an hour from Melbourne anymore. I can jump on Peninsula Link then on to Eastlink then on to the Monash and be at the MCG in 35 minutes. Plus with Peninsula Link Frankston is so close to the wineries and other Peninsula attractions. The only thing Broady has going for it is it's closer to the city but unless you work in the CBD it's not a factor.