Brisbane tipping point - strong price growth over 2019 to 2022

Hi All

Another bold call out on the back of my call out in 2016 of decline of the Sydney market from 2018-2019....I see Brisbane as the next city to growth strongly. Why?

The reasons are as per below

1. Strong population growth....evidence shows that Brisbane is growing at over 50,000 people per year. This will continue to increase as more migrants avoid Sydney and to some degree Melbourne due to high living costs. Also...Brisbane is getting population growth one-third evenly across interstate migration, immigration, and natural birth. This will anchor it well for future growth even if the govt cuts immigration. See below....

A tale of three cities: Populations soar in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane

2. There is over $20 Billion being spend on infrastructure projects which the bulk will be delivered over 2018-2024 such as
Rail - Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro
Queen’s Wharf Brisbane, Brisbane Live, Waterfront Precinct
Brisbane’s Airports new runway
Herston Quarter, West Village
Howard Smith Wharves and Brisbane International Cruise Terminal.

3. Employment is now edging up quite well. Some areas are showing skills shortages. The number is professional, health jobs, and tourism are expected to growth strongly.

4. The properties under 300k are dying breed. Data shows that over the next few years it will disappear. Even lower socio has grown but it has gone backwards over the last 2 years. In my view you will get much more in terms of growth...like part of Moreton Bay (I would avoid Caboolture...similar demographics to Logan)

Affordable havens: The sub $300,000 suburbs on the verge of extinction in Brisbane - realestate.com.au

5. The unit oversupply is expected to be absorbed by 2020....they are not building a lot up there. Rentals vacancy is tightening...this will be one of the drivers of the change.

So in short I can see Brisbane grow between 30-40% over the next 3 years. In some of the better areas like Hendra, Greenslopes, Holland Park, Mt Gravatt ..areas this has already happened...so the growth will go outwards. Again focus needs to be in areas where there are less Southern investors....

What is your view...please share....

 

A guy I know is staying out of Brisbane and doing very well in Sunshine Coast, I am not recommending it or anything.

When you say Brisbane will grow between 30%-40% over the next 3 years, do you mean the median price of all of Brisbane or select suburbs? I don't see the former happening, the latter (why not) - markets within markets and buying well can get you that. Ofcourse, you buy really well.

 

I am saying on median in most areas.

Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast are doing well...at some point very soon people are going to realize how cheap Brissie is....

 

Agree with the population growth and infrastructure as fundamentals laying the foundations...but looking at the listings the stock on market and days on market are climbing even in middle ring...seems to be some time to consider options now which thete wasnt in the last couple of years. This will continue until the election and neg gearing issues come to a head...also compounded by lack of credit availability. Great time to get in and buy some quality proprties whilst the market is cooling..

 

Would you consider that middle and outer rings are primed more so for growth given that the inner ring has done pretty well over the past couple of years? @sash

 

Yes...I think the stuff 12 to 25 klms has now has potential.

 

I have been tossing up between closer to cbd with better rail access around Strathpine/bray park or being a bit closer to the water with less cbd access on the Redcliffe peninsula. I guess both would benefit from your prediction...

 

I see good growth in the OO areas in Brissie, especially the middle ring areas. I personally still wouldn't venture past middle ring if you can afford to buy within it.

Also its houses all the way for me when it comes to Brisbane .

 

I would agree middle to some outer rings doing very well over those time frames. Of course, the elephant in the room is tax change. There is really no telling at this stage how that will play out as it not only depends on what is changed, but how and when it is implemented. There is still a possibility of recession in the US over the next 2 years which would potentially impact our markets here also.

Timing vs time in....if you can do both, then great. If not - play the long game.

- Andrew

 

Brisbane looked cheap when Sydney and Melbourne were going gangbusters, now they have pulled back, not so much...

A lot of areas in Brisbane rose significantly anyway over the last 5 years. No “boom” but some solid growth for sure.

 

I think Brisbane has the best shot of anywhere at the moment. I hope your right Sash, those kind of % gains would be fantastic!

 

Water is a premium.

I also feel the older walk ups have alot of land tied up in them. A lot on have 6 packs on 1000sqm of prime land within 8 klms of the city...that could be worth $2m plus......once the potential of this is realised...this could push up the older walk ups...

 

... on the largest block of land that one’s budget can afford.

 

I have been hoping, saying, praying, ... that Brisbane is going to boom, for the last 2 - 3 years.

I have done all my research/analysis and my conclusion is that Brisbane is going to crash 20% to 25% over the next two years.

I was wrong with the first prediction; I aim to be wrong with the second .

 

Lets hope your prediction of 25% crash is correct....I will be buying up big!

That means a 700k Qld in Annerley will be worth 525k........

 

Ha ha...you gotta be takin the pi#s there surely ....

 

Makes one wonder,what blocks above 800sqm's Lmr in Moorooka on 4-6 brick walkup's units will be worth,as most of the land values that have came in over the past few weeks went backwards..
I just can't see property values in Annerley going down that amount,but stranger things happen I guess..

 

+1!

 

I think they are just wishing and kidding about a drop in Annerley that big...but you never know?
I am unsure where most land values went backwards, say just from 6 house/land valuations I received all my land went up (gosh around $250K up ranging from 5.5% to 20.5%)?

I found this article interesting especially since I am in for the long term wishing never to sell...
https://brisbanebuyersagent.com.au/...orming-brisbane-suburbs-over-the-last-decade/

 

Thanks for the link,our daughter showed us the recent land values that came in while we were away..She only has one unit in Moorooka small block of 5 all brick on a large lmr block ..That property went down in value ,and it may well stay within that value range for a while,but as she said Dad it's longterm..
I agree with Annerley ,it's one of those blue chip sleepers ,and a market within a market..