Brisbane&Sydney

Disagree. Whilst 2x400 may get the same gain quicker, 800 also has potential to get to 1 mil. There are several that have done just this in the last 3 years. With the medians increasing, it will be less of a challenge for an 800 now to reqch 1 mil. Ofcourse not as fast as Sydney. 800 now is still miles ahead in terms of what you can get vs sydney. Plus, 800 is not so high that you might as well just do sydney.

 

There are 2 camps on this. One says brisbane will boom at some point as it has done in the past cycles. The other viewpoint( myself included) say brisbane will not boom , rather it will show steady and moderate growth as it has done consistently over the last 3 years. Might be a higher rate of growth going forward, but not boom conditions.

 

Boom does not equal Sydney boom, also, APRA will make sure of that even if it was possible before, but steady sustainable growth is better IMO.

I am in the slow and steady camp, but I do not count the getting back to previous levels.

Most areas are back to or just past priors where I have looked, it is busy enough and way past APRA changes, so growth ahead provided no large natural event.

 

I tend to agree with you and lean towards this likelihood.

The other thing I think is important for everyone to keep in mind is that while Brisbane may not 'boom' city wide, there will likely be suburbs that will out perform many others and have stellar growth as well as other opportunities within suburbs to manufacture equity. So when you put those two factors together, you could still see 'boom' like results in certain markets/deals even if Brisbane as a city doesn't 'boom'.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Do you think 1 x 800 would reach 1 mill quicker than 1 (or 2) 400 reaching 500?

 

ive mentioned in the earlier post that its very possible that 2x400 can get quicker gains. Depends on many factors such as location , dwelling type etc obviously. My point is also that brisbane has enough strength for an 800 to reach 1 mil in this cycle.

 

We might be going in circles here because you missed my sarcasm and googly eyes

 

will brisbane show steady growth or cycle??either way, I am happy

 

Yeah this is true..for most markets not just brisbane. However, recent data has Shown a fair biy of cg variance between fairly close suburbs. its going to be important to pick the right stuff in the right areas in brisbane going fwd...bris does not have the supply constraints nor the economic strength that sydney has to wqrrant a city wide boom for anything and everything.

 

@JDP1 Yup i agree. Location will be so important. Personally I think Brisbane is more location sensitive than compared to Sydney which is usually more price sensitive. The reason many of the suburbs 30,40, 50km from the sydney cbd had good growth was because of affordability. I think for Brisbane it's relatively alot more affordable living closer to the cbd. So as you indicated, the right locations and right type of dwelling will be really important for future CG.

 

Care to elaborate leo or jdp?

 

Well from my perspective, assuming you have the financial capacity, investing closer to the CBD as opposed to further will generally see better CG. The 'right stock' to me is an established home, BMV, something to add value to, as close to the CBD (middle ring if possible) or as close to a 'value neighboring suburb' as possible.

That's how I see the best opportunities for CG moving forward. Just my opinion.

 

id agree with @Leo2413 above..and would expand that a bit to include larger townhouses ( inner-mid) as well as possibly older/character and larger, and renod/good quality units ( again inner-mid- far enough from supply additions but not too far to get to cbd) without the high BC fees that all the extras bring. Those are the three criteria that i think will do the best CG going forward in the next 3-5 yrs. 2 and 3 will generally have a lower buy in price than 1, but will have a BC component, but also probably higher yield. 1 will be the most expensive buy in- but id go for it as leo said if you can afford it. 2 and 3 most likely have a slighly better location than 1 as they are generally not in the middle of the suburb without easy access to busses/trains, whereas 1 may be. 1 will probably show the highest cg ( mainly because of its land component) in the short term, with 2 and 3 equalling and/or surpassing 1 in med and long terms, provided its location is great. Houses (1) with the location are currently going for good money as can be seen by the sold prices on the other thread/posts...

 

I hope you're right.

 

No crystal ball @Bran but there are three components to CG/equity gain from my perspective.

1. Buying BMV if possible, locking in equity on the way in. To some extent made a lot easier if bought at the opportunistic part of the property clock.
2. Being able to manufacture some value without relying on market movement.
3. Then organic CG. So even if organic growth is slow or miscalculated for whatever reason, then points 1 and 2 hopefully were executed well.

Is it super easy to do all this? Nope. But becoming 'wealthy' asap is never easy. This is just my perspective on it.

 

I'm not sure I understand this.

 

1=the houses leo is talking about
2&3= townhouses and units in my post

 

Got the numbers and age with priority assigned but don't understand why 2 and 3 would exceed. Hasnt happened historically in Australia.
Imagine a house in fairfield vs a unit in fairfield. Both bought 20 years ago

 

I say that in the med-long term they will outperform 1 due to a shift in buyer preferences and thus demand to 2and 3 as opposed to 1. In saying this, i am assuming 2 and 3 will also be a bit letter located than 1. Exception to this is if 1 has the location already..which is why i say go for it if you can afford it...but i wouldnt buy 1 just for the sake of land...
20 years back, the preferences are not quite what they are now and definitely not what it will be in another 20 years time. The shift to cbd/near cbd concentration of demand is gathering pace in all major cities and will continue.

 

Yup. This is actually evidenced already by people paying 1-2mil+ for small 405sqm lots, new modern homes, within 10km of the CBD.