QLD Brisbane/QLD Overhype

Great discussion!

This was posted in Pete Wargent's blog / newsletter. Perth and Brisbane are leading the pack for population projections in periods to 2031 and 2061.



Source of the data is: State of Australian Cities 2014–2015

 

What's wrong with a mega thread on all the major centres? Is that knowledge or hyping?

Isn't it how we can collectively leverage off each other's knowledge and ideas.

Surely we can all think for ourselves?

 

depends..is it BS? I suspect this is why the thread was started

 

No only falafel

 

Depends if you consider learning a little more about an area BS.

Quoting figures which are incorrect would qualify.

I generally take things at face value unless I see obvious discrepancies. The only time I am really on guard is when first time poster comes in hard talking something up with an obvious agenda.

Everything else is just opinions.

 

That's basically how i view it too. Then if anything piques my interest ill do thorough DD on it myself to see just how much merit there is to it.

 

You have to be kidding unless you have large amounts of money to play in certain parts of sydney.....most of sydney was overcooked.....you may make something still but you better be very careful....

Have you been on the ground in Bris.....you can't beat seeing what actually is going on. Yes melb also has this in some places i looked at....

 

Go on your own checks.....not on what the forum says or does not say....

 

+1. imho, at the end it is your money and you are making the decision depending on your financial situation and strategy. not from what you see from hype/or not thread...

 

The issue is that these projections are largely dependent on state sponsored immigrants sticking with cities of their arrival. I know 3 people who came to Perth, two of them have moved to Sydney within 2 years and another person who migrated to Adelaide from India, decided to return to India after a year.

There are no real jobs or industry to sustain white collar immigrants beyond two cities (syd and melb) and these are exact type of immigrants who drive up the prices.

 

I don't agree with Sydney being overcooked... Sydney has plenty of opportunity if investors get over their biases. It's like you can't afford investing in 50% of Sydney and you won't invest in other 50% because of stigma and low socio economic issues but even the worst of Sydney suburbs will continue to perform well in comprison with rest of capital city markets.

 

I think we've all hoped for a boom in Brissie but it hasn't really eventuated. I think there's been too much stock for sale for the quantity of buyers and that hasn't helped prices. OO's aren't willing to pay over the top prices like in Sydney's boom where you would see 22 offers result from the first open, buyers were very desperate.

Now so many investors have hopped onto the Brisbane bandwagon hoping for prices to rise but now the vacancy rates are getting high and there's quite a few rentals on offer.

Even if the projections for Sydney are lower than other cities, Sydney's geography means that only a limited number of freestanding houses can be somewhat near the CBD. If you want to buy a house that's not over the top expensive, you have to go West, Southwest or Northwest. Or alternatively go Central Coast or the Illawarra.
Other cities don't have so much land contraints. So other cities will be cheaper even though they may grow more on a % basis.

 

I'm in! Those dudes probably know a thing or two about property

 

I have been watched Nowra for the last few months and it's still be growing really strongly. Good yield and very low vacancy rates. Not much stock on the market either

 

What's a good yield? I stopped looking there about 12mths ago

 

Around 6%

Looking at SQM data the median has rised 10% over the last 12 months.

 

Ok nice. So you're flying to brissy via Nowra? I thought Nowra had moved more. I'll have to go back to my notes

 

Haha I am following the alleged crowd/hype to Brisbane for a looksie.

I would buy in Nowra if something popped up which I liked.

 

I just looked at the graph in more detail. The 3 year change is 40% that's a bit of cream you're missing there. Check your brissy areas

 

I think this is the point, most got caught up in the hype.

At the end of the day the proof is in the pudding how many boom cycles did you buy into since 2013, we have had 3?

I will leave it to others to follow the BS, I'll stick to making money