Brisbane outgrows Capital cities in April

A lot of media coverage on recent Corelogic indices and unsurprisingly most journalists are reading it wrong.

First of all, let me describe what data we are all looking for and then point to the data in the indices.

We all want to know the current state of market and month on month movements are the only data that describes the current state of the market*.

So here's how houses prices at the end of April fared versus those in the March.

• Brisbane - 0.99% growth (including Gold Coast brings it down to 0.88 and factoring in the smaller size of GC market, I would assume a very low number for GC)
• Adelaide - 0.87% growth
• Melbourne - 0.64% growth
• Sydney - 0.19% (lowest in months - almost stopped growing in April)

A sharp decline for Canberra (over 3% down in just one month) which deserves a thread of its own.

Market price is a factor of demand and supply and based on above data, you could see that Brisbane demand outgrew demand for properties in other states.




(*Note: Current month vs last year is misleading as takes into growth from last 12 months while daily indices have a much smaller subset of data and can be affected by other events such as rainy day today might result in lower sales versus same day last year which happened to be a sunnier one).

 

I'm not too surprised at this..there had been an increase in number of professional jobs in Brisbane over the last month - early stages, but will continue to see some growth driven by this. I can't speak for gc as I am not familiar with that market.
I have spoken to various recruitment experts recently and market reports and they expect continued job growth as their clients have flagged hiring intentions this year...

 

I think a lot would depend on how Sydney is able to withstand interest rate changes + APRA tightening because not all of that would be completely reflected in these numbers yet.

Sydney needs to hold its values for investors to cash out and invest elsewhere.

 

boom started in 2013, that is 4 years ago, what makes you think they have not already cashed out already just have to read some of the posters here that have taken their equity or profits and already purchased in Brissy/SA/WA

I am told many are also upgrading their primary residence.

 

Adelaide at .87 is behind Brisbane but ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart

 

Don't get too excited.
Brisbane is coming off a very low base.
One month's figures can be skewed by the particular type of properties sold.
Marg

 

I have done the same but money is made when general population catches on and they are always late. Brisbane is growing nicely for those who picked good suburbs but for a true boom you would need desperate late entrants who will also be late to sell in Sydney.

 

Tr

True..will need to see the following months.
However I don't think Brisbane is a flash in the pan...Adelaide may be..but I don't think Brisbane - the reason being improving fundamentals including jobs.

 

That's true - as I said it just means Brisbane was ahead in the race in April but it's very significant considering recent regulatory pressures and interest rate hikes.

 

It's not actually just one month - it's rolling 3 months average ending on 30th April which means April numbers were a bit more drastic to bring the average down resulting in Sydney showing as flat.

Corelogic would only sell more specific data to big companies and I am sure banks have had access to these trends as they happened in real time(we are only looking backwards) and hence their rushing into interest rate changes throughout April.

 

If this is the case then I expect we will see growth? Lots of talk, but yet to see double digit, perhaps a few well located inner city locations in Brissy??

 

Some Brisbane suburbs have seen 10% p.a. growth for several years now.
Marg

 

I don't think fundamentals have improved that much nor there has been consistent growth other than inner city ring. Lack of fundamentals is the very reason it has not boomed despite very low interest rates in last couple of years.

Brisbane's best chance is to catch some momentum from the possible slow down of Sydney/Melbourne and once some interstate investor money starts exchanging hands, it might actually help with the fundamentals.

 

The Canberra data is not correct. The median price has just exceeded 700k for the first time.

 

Not a surprise...though to get to good growth conditions that is probably about a year away.....from 2019...onwards it should do nicely as Sydney/ Inner Melbourne would have cooled off by then

 

Its a monthly one

 

Sidney to Brisbane house price ratio is 2.2 which is the record high level since 1979. As the graph by Guest is showing, the only other time the ratio was that high was in 2002. Everyone knows what happened from 2002 onwards

Boom imminent.

 

Very good data find!

 

More proof Brissie is awakening.......

Brisbane edges Sydney, Melbourne in latest home value growth results - realestate.com.au

 

Yes that is true but also a lot of sydney fhb rentvestors are buying in bne if they missed the boom in Sydney or just cannot afford it