Brisbane: Mediocre Growth, Low Confidence, Beware Logan ...

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by pugstar205, 21st Oct, 2015.

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  1. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    pugstar205, 21st Oct, 2015
    #1
  2. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    All sounds like a positive future to me, we are just biding our time.

    I don't think Legacy Way is going to add anything to St Lucia from this point. (Seriously? Am I missing something with this call?)
     
    Bran, 21st Oct, 2015
    #2
  3. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    I normally dont touch this sort of stuff, but where publically available data contradicts the content..........



    Quote

    We’re seeing prices falling in Logan.

    really ? the evidence for this is where please ? Im seeing solid price growth in the contracts we run every week.



    Wilson says the high level of unemployment in Logan is causing the market to stagnate.

    employment, yes may be an issue, market to stagnate ............. seems to me that Turnover of stock is ok


    A better place to look in his view is the suburb of Ipswich, as it continues to attract buyers and its fundamentals are more solid.

    what fundamentals are better in IPS, certainly the IPS region has more broad acreage green land for new development and more infill sites than the Logan region, but I would think that means more supply. yep unemployment is a little higher in the logan region,

    http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/QLD_LFR_LM_byLFR_UnemploymentRate


    ta
    rolf
     
    Rolf Latham, 21st Oct, 2015
    #3
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  4. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Rolf.....I think Andrew Wilson is spot on.....the Logan market like Mt Druitt has been supported by interstate investors. He is spot on in saying that unemployment rates are very high....the locals won't touch certain parts of Logan..but agree Logan is huge areas. The ones which are getting lots of growth are more the lower end.

    Time will tell. I won't say which part of Ipswich. .but some have had really good growth already...again Ipswich is

    Just remember that Brisbane people think very different to Sydney people.....worth noting...

     
    sash, 6th Nov, 2015
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  5. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    What you may well see now is in inner Brisbane southside is all the small pockets that have been slow in price upswings,will catch up with the near by areas,that's happening now in the flood areas,or small pockets that have been rezoned,plus you have seven cranes in a walking distance area in Woolongabba all multi level high rise ,and that area alone is full of Queenslanders set up as 4 flats on 800-1000sqm.s rezoned land,any one of those in 5 years time ,but we think different up this way..
     
    willair, 6th Nov, 2015
    #5
  6. Bastiat

    Bastiat Member

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    Bastiat, 6th Nov, 2015
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  7. Special order

    Special order Well-Known Member

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    Wow what a happening thread this is

    Born on the 21st October and a whole 5 responses long

    Fail
     
    Special order, 6th Nov, 2015
    #7
  8. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    I just see positives there.
    Parts of Logan have done 20% in the last 12 months. The other parts of Logan are following behind and will do the same in the next 6-12 once the numbers start rolling in to the data lords
     
    bob shovel, 6th Nov, 2015
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  9. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    How so?
     
    JDP1, 6th Nov, 2015
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  10. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    I think it might actually break forum rules to say anything negative about Brisbane.
    I think Brisbane will see a few years of slow, steady growth but won't boom like Sydney has the past 2 years. The drivers are simply not here. Anyone who has recently purchased in anticipation of double digit growth will be disappointed. Supply matches demand here and there's so much talk of an Australian property bubble / crash / correction / recession in the mainstream media that people are being cautious. If Sydney does drop, even a little bit, the nerves will kick in and the Brisbane market will grind to a halt.
    In the Brisbane suburbs I'm shopping in, I'm seeing property languish and a fair bit of discounting. Nothing I've seen has been is snapped up after the first open as reported in other threads. That must be unique to one or two suburbs (Sunnybank and surrounds?).
    Also, in the suburb where i live I'm noticing 'for rent' signs up for 6 - 8 weeks at a time.
     
    pugstar205, 6th Nov, 2015
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  11. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    How many IP's have you purchased? Zero isn't it? :D
     
    Biz, 6th Nov, 2015
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  12. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    S--l--o--w--e--r.
     
    Bran, 6th Nov, 2015
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  13. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Nope. I know nothing about Sunnybank. Where are you looking exactly for no interest at the first open? Clearly not the same areas as the brisbane vocalists?
     
    Bran, 6th Nov, 2015
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  14. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    Proud to be on zero. I'm very selective.
     
    pugstar205, 6th Nov, 2015
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  15. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    Correct. Not the same areas as many.
     
    pugstar205, 6th Nov, 2015
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  16. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I disagree with this point...
    The affordability will drive people up north. One if the beauties of RE is that it's not discretionary like shares, Bullion etc. There is an underlying demand that a lot of other investments do not have..
    As you also said,the drivers betwren syd and Brisbane are different, so I do not see such a strong correlation in RE between the the two cities. Besides, the 2 are in different cyclical patterns - one is at or above peak and the other is accelerating.
     
    JDP1, 6th Nov, 2015
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  17. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    Fair point - but can Sydney investors still head north with APRA lending restrictions? This is a new world for investors. Maybe if they sell in Syd first to free up funds I suppose.
    I don't care either way, I just don't feel under any pressure to buy at any cost to get on the Brisbane gravy train because it still seems quite slow and timid on the ground to me.
     
    pugstar205, 6th Nov, 2015
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  18. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Not disappointed yet, but it's only been 9 months.
    IMG_0982.PNG
     
    Bran, 6th Nov, 2015
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  19. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    Not really a new world it's just different paperwork and numbers for the brokers to play with :D
    I know Redcliffe and the "train line "areas have also moved.
    Where are you following?? I might start looking there if they're yet to jump... And your not just relying on mag articles for your research are you??
     
    bob shovel, 6th Nov, 2015
    #19
  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    They have a lot more choice so they will try to get into the better suburbs.

    Given the choice they would not choose to live in the lower socio-economic suburbs.
     
    sash, 6th Nov, 2015
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