QLD Brisbane Markets Fundamental Stability

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Agent30yrs., 4th May, 2017.

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  1. Agent30yrs.

    Agent30yrs. Well-Known Member

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  2. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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  3. Agent30yrs.

    Agent30yrs. Well-Known Member

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    Lol, dont get me wrong @Whitecat - I'm not totally confident, and it's still early days in the process...There could be a perfect storm brewing and if we had substantial settlement problems on a couple of larger projects reported in the press (and as expected they whip it up to a disaster) on top of a good hike in interest rates it could turn on a dime. Suffice to say, I'm more optimistic than I was 3-6 months ago.
     
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  4. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Yes interest rates will be interesting they will hurt Brisbane home buyers a little bit no doubt. But what they will also do is on the extreme prices in Sydney and Melbourne they will make Brisbane properties look even more attractive from an investment point of view.
    1% or 2% on 500k is one thing and 1% and 2% of 1 million it's a totally different ball game. Investors need that balance and Sydney cashflow will get very tough
     
  5. headsonbeds

    headsonbeds Well-Known Member

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    As long as know one starts building a whole lot more new units! Lol.

    The fear would be that developers think they should pile in again. I think the banks lack of lending should keep this on hold though.
     
  6. Agent30yrs.

    Agent30yrs. Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the banks have tightened up significantly
     
  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    The subtle signs of the spotlight now being in Brisbane is there.........it was always going to happen.

    You will see the market go from strength to strength........Sydney is turning....that is the first clue....
     
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  8. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    You know there's problems when they're spruiking forecast 1.1-1.3% growth for the next two years as if its a good outcome. That wouldn't cover holding costs even if you were a cash buyer.

    This article is the opinion of a developer who has over-commited to the stagnant Brisbane market, demonatrating how highly vested it is. Look at the numbers for yourself - the brisbane region alone has over 11,000 sale listings, and qld as a whole has over 27,000. compare that with victoria's mid-17,000, adjust for population/population growth and its clearly not a good result.

    Then consider coming supply; the number of dwellings currently under construction at record levels, highly concetrated in apartments. QLD population growth would have to literally double for current construction levels to be an underbuild.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, the apartment market is about to become massively over supplied. The CBD, Valley, West End and Kangaroo Point will be ground zero.
    The Brisbane house market is more stable IMO and that is indicated by the SQM data below. I don't know how reliable this data is.

    I don't like extrapolating Qld data as an valid indication of what's happening in Brisbane though because a significant population in Qld live in regional cities unlike most of the other capital cities.

    Unit listings increasing, house listings stable
    Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-43-25.png
    Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-44-38.png Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-44-22.png
    The CBD data above shows what's happening.
    Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-45-04.png
    North Brisbane fairly stable but unit listings rising, possibly due to developments around Chermside?
    Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-45-04.png [ Screenshot_2017-05-07-11-45-23.png
     
  10. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Whether its houses, apartments, townhousrs, thrlivemusic scene, buskering on Queen Street mall, the restaurants, the corner fish n chips shop..doesn't matter - Brisbane: boom inevitable:)
     
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  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    ... and hopefully soon. That is, in the next 12 to 18 months.

    Let's keep hyping it :) :).
     
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  12. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    The situation does look pretty dire for apartments. @HUGH72 @JL1 stats show that.
    Meanwhile in Paddington for houses. .. 20170507_124710.jpg
     
  13. headsonbeds

    headsonbeds Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting to look at those graphs as they don't look as worrying as you might expect. Even the city isn't to bad, it looks a bit like under building followed by overbuilding, interesting to see how it all washes out.

    Strongly agree that houses are going to be the rewarding option though.
     
  14. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Probably still a rising trend at least until mid 2018 for units. The one positive is that at least some of the building approvals appear unlikely to proceed.
    Either way the worst is most likely still ahead.
     
  15. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Even know they have slowed down there is still a heck of a lot in the Pipeline. 'Icon' milton starting construction...One example.

    Will be interesting to see the demographic that fills them it's interesting walking along kurilpa now and seeing how different the people are it's a lot busier and they are kind of young low tier professionals/services or even young tradies who want to live in the city. Used to be not many people around and definitely more interestingly hippie.
    I really don't think the inner city apartments are going to get filled with the trendy latte yuppies like the marketing shows (i think in Brisbane they would still want a house or a townhouse) and I think a lot of them will get filled with international students taking on a lease and then subletting.
    The retail that's going in below these places is pretty ordinary burgers and pizza type things pretty run of the mill coffee shops nothing particularly character.
    It will be interesting to do an economic demographic analysis on this whole Brisbane apartment splurge. I think it's not so much a case of "build it and they will come" as many thought
     
  16. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Interesting that that cite the Gold Coast 2018 Commonwealth Games 2 year after effect as being positive for Brisbane. I agree it will be, but it will be exponentially more so for the Gold Coast itself. There is one school of thought that Gold Coast will go through a massive rally in 2018 and then bust thereafter. But many experienced investors including myself are pretty confident that the positive effect will last for many more years, both in terms of infrastructure and the legacy be benefits of international visitors and publicity etc.
     
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  17. pfbs

    pfbs Well-Known Member

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    How many apartments are there being built in Brisbane compared to Melbourne? I know Melbourne has a better ability to fill that capacity but it would still be useful to know.
     
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  18. BB5

    BB5 Well-Known Member

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    Houses a better option than a unit up to about 15ks out. Houses further out probably equally as poor a buy unless near to a bay...maybe not deception bay.
     
  19. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    Here’s what a building boom looks like – Dec 2016 dwellings under construction, commencements, and compeltions
    From the above article, ABS data of dwellings under construction as of December 2016.

    [​IMG]

    adjusted for population growth, Queensland is overbuilding far more than Victoria.


    They are only a better option so far as the price point makes them worth it. Once the price between a house and townhouse is too high, people will go for the townhouse. Likewise for townhouses to apartments.

    Outside of the CBD in Melbourne, apartments and townhouses have seen fantastic returns. a 2 bed unit in Fitzroy can easy get $700k+ now, where as a few years back you could just about pick up a heritage terrace house for that.

    If apartments are not moving, that really limits how much houses can actually grow (especially when prices of so many houses are set by the development value to become units)
     
  20. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Not sure which of the 17 active Brisbane threads I should post this in but do people realise that Brisbane is picking up on the Perth refugees?
    Whilst there are not ridiculous amounts of jobs here it's probably be slightly better than Perth and no way in hell are they going to be able to necessarily afford Sydney or Melbourne in many cases
     
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