QLD Brisbane looks good

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Steven Ryan, 19th Jun, 2015.

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  1. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    The development is for mix use not just apartment. I see this development more positive. Jobs created. Cinema and shops. The Beenleigh and Loganlea town centre zoning are well structured than some. It's 30/40min to Brisbane/Gold Coast... Find me a location that's like that
     
  2. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    I lived in Newmarket at the time, I mean the NIMBY's may as well have had signs that said that.
     
  3. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    6 months in to this thread, a little reflection and a detailed breakdown of where we're at right now.
    • Mid-year, people were sharing on ground observations about certain pockets heating up, prices rising, houses going under contract first weekend, sales above asking and large numbers of buyers walking through open homes (almost entirely owner-occupiers, particularly first home buyers).

    • The number of investors buying in Brisbane is increasing. Agents were very surprised to see people who had flown up mid-year but are getting used to it now. Likewise offers from interstate investors making offers "sight-unseen".

    • The data has begun to reflect what's happening on the ground.

    • Media articles have been sporadically, but increasingly, mentioning Brisbane (and South East Queensland) as the place to invest.

    • As Sydney cools, odds are good that many more investors will be looking to Brisbane in 2016.

    • The more growth is reflected in data, the more the media will hype Brisbane and the more investors will move in to the market.

    Time for a snapshot.

    It'll be good to look back on these in 2016 and beyond. They're broken down by region. Lets not nitpick about the couple of non-Brisbane inclusion–they're worth nothing ;)

    I am ignoring apartments entirely. Below comments reflect ALL houses.

    Note: Particularly strong movement in the last quarter, accounting for approx half 12 month growth. Will this continue into 2016?

    Brisbane (overall):
    +3.3% quarter (54% of year)
    +6.1% year

    Here's what outperformed wider Brisbane in 2015:

    Brisbane CBD:
    +5.8% quarter (52% of year)
    +11.1% year

    East Brisbane:
    +6.4% quarter (45% of year)
    +14.3% year

    Inner Brisbane:
    +5.5% quarter (63% of year)
    +8.8% year

    Southern Brisbane:
    +2.7% quarter (42% of year)
    +6.5% year

    Beenleigh_Corridor_22nd_Dec.png Brisbane_all_22nd_Dec.png Brisbane_CBD_22nd_Dec.png East_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png Inner_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png Ipswich_22nd_Dec.png Northern_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png South_East_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png Southern_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png West_Brisbane_22nd_Dec.png
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Inner East Brisbane housing market seems to be doing very well.
    Anyone want to mention specific areas??

    Units not necessarily doing that well??
     
  5. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    Start at Wooloongabba and go east ;)

    A fair bit of that "Inner" house data will be developers paying a tidy sums for sites (skewing the numbers). I reckon if you dig up some data on land price growth it'll be, and will continue to be, exponential the closer you get to the CBD.

    With about twelve quadrillion units approved and on the way, I would not touch them–especially within a few km of the CBD. There'll be rare exceptions that do well among older stuff (e.g unique, oversized, great views etc) but it's playing with fire IMO.

    Also note, newly developed stock will attract a premium over existing, and with so much of it in the pipeline, a much higher proportion of listings and transactions will reflect new stuff which will inflate the data so the numbers but won't necessarily reflect intrinsic growth.
     
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  6. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Postcode 4114 for Logan Central, Woodridge and Kingston is a better representation than Beenleigh....

    Logan, whether you like it or hate it, has outperformed most part of Brisbane for the 12 or 36months % change.

    upload_2015-12-22_11-55-16.png
     
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  7. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Excellent post.

    I've become a little bearish over the last 1-2 months, although reasonably priced stock is still selling quickly on the south inner/mid ring.

    Still happy to buy, but it has to be more than a thrown dart.
     
  8. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    I think the Sydney effect that helped this year, may pull down Brisbane next year actually... If prices start falling in Sydney, investors with multiple properties may have reduced equity, and lenders may be even more cautious to lend against Sydney properties. That may force some Sydney investors to sell up here, or at least step back and wait to see what happens before buying more.

    I think 4-5% growth for most of Brisbane would be reasonable for 2016. That's not extreme, but outside of a few short periods, that has been the general trend up here.

    Most definitely.. the price for many of these new developments is quite high. They will sell a few at the prices asked for a while, which will keep the median looking a bit better. Very unlikely they will offer significant cash discounts for the moment, which would push the price down. Expect to see attempts at plenty of other incentives thrown in in the first half of the year. Second half could be where there is more discounting in order to shift all the stock that comes into the apartment market. And maybe where some of them will start getting worried.
     
  9. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    gman65

    IMHO , the Sydney effect will boost Brisbane

    Most people didn't buy at the peak of Sydney . they bought on the way up , so given that rates are flat and unemployment is stable , people are unlikely to have a major reason to sell . Most people aren't constantly revaluing and redrawing equity .

    BUT lots of people have seen what has happened and will be thinking what next .

    The fast movers ( ie people on this forum ) are already up there , buying or bought and the herd is yet to hit Brisbane .

    My expectation is Brisbane will get stronger next year and keep building momentum.

    December ./ jan is always quieter , but will be interesting to see what happens in Feb when people have had time to think and make plans over the summer break .

    Is that certain ?? . Nothing is , but even if we don't have a strong boom in Brisbane in the next 2-3 years , I still expect Brisbane to be the next capital city to boom . Personally I think it's more likely to be in the next 2-3 years rather than 7 -10 year period which has been suggested by some as a time frame for the market to adjust and absorb the APRA changes .

    Cliff
     
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  10. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    You forgot the most important metric- this thread has well surpassed the views and posts of the runners up...by orders of magnitude....
    On a more serious note , not discounting the 123 plus pages and the stats posted above, there is a growing optimism on the ground. We already know a large portion of the workforce (public service)are getting payrises and bonus to boot, and trolling and looking at job boards (not that im unemployed- quite thre opposite lol) and numbers shows strong resilience in not only numbers bit also type abd salaries. This is rare for this time of yr!!!!!
    The last time i saw this kind of labor market was 5 years back during the mining boom. This only is observational in bcc only. Could be quite different outside bcc - dont know.
     
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  11. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    QHealth has received their pay rises. This last pay I believe. I went out and spent some money on a local business to celebrate.
     
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  12. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I agree Cliff. Gradual and steady growth is quite likely over the next few years. The ones who already bought I think will have the best returns.
     
  13. Inov8ive

    Inov8ive Well-Known Member

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    One thing is for sure, the gap between prices in Sydney and Brisbane cannot remain as wide as it is now. Either Brisbane will go up a lot, Sydney will come down a lot or it will be a little bit of both. My bet is the latter.
     
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  14. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    A bit of both..but more brissy up than sydney down percentage-wise.
     
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  15. Inov8ive

    Inov8ive Well-Known Member

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    Yes I definitely agree. Unless there is a serious economic event then Brisbane really needs to do some catching up.
     
  16. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    So, expecting a bit less growth than we saw in 2015?

    I see it being more.
     
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  17. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    Just reviewing some LRM comparables in Moorooka which are now in apartment pre-sale stage. I’ll begin the process of determining how to best maximise my development site soon and get ballpark costs together so I know what's feasible. This is for my reference but I know plenty of others are keen on these kind of sites so I’ll share.

    18 Blomfield St (corner block)
    $612,000 (Aug 2015)
    658m² = $930/m²
    • My site
    • Sloping

    2 Kipling St (corner block)
    $660,000 (Mar 2015)
    610m² = $1,081/m²
    • Pre-selling now
    • 6 x 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car apartments
    • 1 x 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car apartment
    • From $445,000
    • Minimum gross: $3.1mil
    6 Kipling St (not on a corner)
    $626,000 (Dec 2014)
    673m² = $930/m²
    • Pre-selling now
    • 8 x 1-2 bed, 1 bath, 1 car apartments
    • From $350,000
    • Minimum gross: $2.8mil
     
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  18. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Averaged to the entire market it might be around 5% , and yhats because they chuck in everything into it to compile rhe stats. Select suburbs will do well. Im tipping inner and mid ex oversupplied ex flood prone to do well, around 8-10% for those. Some wild swings in either direction for the outer.
     
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    My older 260k unit is looking positively cheap compared to the price of new units at 440k plus....

    It is also over 80 sqm with a massive 36 sqm garage.

     
  20. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    The APRA changes may actually mean some places still growing at reasonable rates for longer, instead of boom and bust, so it may work in favor for Bris and other areas with reasonable priced housing even with a few % more interest rises if they come...
     
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