QLD Brisbane is booming 2022!

No I can see up to a 10% fall register by Q4. So if you lot at data by FY then yes it could show a negative result by Q4. But remember Brissie grew 28% to dates this FY

I might get the nickname the Mad Hatter as I portray the fantasy of large price drops.

 

10% fall from peak by Q4? 10% down YoY?

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Brisbane

Curious what else is happening in this scenario, 10% down from peak if we say peak is May? Would need 1.6% drops per month from now to the end of the year. Whilst the city still has low stock on the market.

Compare listings in Sydney and Melbourne and you can see a big uptick in listings in these cities compared to Brissy and they've been correspondingly flat for most of the year. Rate rises causing a drop in demand everywhere but Sydney and Melb also showing signs of getting back to normal levels of stock on the market. Brisbane and Adelaide still showing low stock and low and behold still growing into the headwinds.

I'm still maintaining until stock levels turn around in Brissy we won't see widespread falls. Growth will definitely slow and that was always going to be the case.

 

Completely agree . Construction costs also putting a big dampener on new supply . Can’t see big drops at all for bne , especially in desirable suburbs and bonus points for relatively new builds

 

Last week's auction result has been changed

 

3% lower than last year which was the hottest year in 2 decades or so , not too bad

 

Hey look what we have here... Brisbane has 0% growth last month for houses, and we know what could come after that. I'm not surprised whatsoever.

Brisbane is no longer booming

 

Blasphemy!

 

It depends who you ask.

Last time interest rates hiked and Sydney market plummeted, Brisbane went up 70% in 4 years even through GFC and Labor government.

A smaller Brisbane mortgage becomes very appealing to a lot of Sydneysiders when interest rates start biting the back pocket.

Only thing I am worried about is land taxes when it comes to Brisbane. Mine are getting out of control.

 

its not smaller anymore.

 

But man, weren't those 2-3% months sweet!

Flat result for sure, but for once I am happy Brisbane is lagging the price moves of the southern capitals! (for now...)

 

mind you. some of these these stats are lagging...

 

How so ? Brisbane is massively cheaper than Sydney

 

Someone can today sell their WPH house for $2.5m and buy a similar house for $1.2m in The Gap and improve their quality of life 200x.

 

Leave it another 6 months and gap may not be that large 1.8m Wph and 1m in brissie.

 

is there a massive difference now? like a year or 18 months ago?

 

that someone can buy much cheaper remotely. guess there is a reason they are not doing it.

 

They increasingly are as far Sydney/Melbourne to Brisbane migration route is concerned. Check the interstate migration figures. Last ABS update was 2nd half of 2021 and it's not slowing down.

I still think the peak of 'southern stampede' is still ahead, possibly mid next year when interest rates get fully priced in.

 

Yep , we didn’t make up too much ground on Sydney

 

All hail the God of Natural Market Cycles!

Brisbane has had a pretty good boom though, from late 2020 until recently - about 18 months. It is sort of what you'd expect in a usual cycle.

Note: I did carefully use the word could there I think rising rates will probably cause SEQ prices to fall somewhat if looking at an overall index figure before the end of the year, but I think it will fare a lot better than Sydney and Melbourne.

Spring might see a bit of an uptick, always strong here. If quality stock comes on the market, those that got shut out/gave up same time last may come back I think.. Although many will have reduced borrowing too, so may be offering less.

Midway through 2023 things will have totally changed I think, so very hard to predict that far out.

Agree with you there... southern migration often is higher when local conditions get worse. People look for a change. When I left Melbourne last Brisbane super-cycle it was very much in the toilet.

I think during the next 12 months, Brisbane prices could well catch Melbourne, as it has in the past bad economic periods (early 70's, early 80's, mid-90s, early 2000's)... more so with Melb falling so much, and maybe BNE only falling a little.

I found that article you posted the other day had an awesome long-term table of different cities: What a 3.2% cash rate will mean for property prices and household savings

 

@Gen-Y are you keeping record.

You will see falls in Brisbane clearly in Q4 (Oct-Dec). It is happening now... properties not selling or getting repriced...not only BCC ...but also Moreton Bay/Logan/Ipswich.

As I have said the falls will be between Sydney and Melbourne.

Places like Camp Hill.. Newfarm may see some of largest falls. Dems how it works volks.

Here is one in Camp Hill it jumped 65% in 5 years. From 1.575m to 2.56m. There is high probability it will drop 20% once rates ratchet up to $2m. So again in this example people who suddenly see a 900k profit to something like 340k. Worse still investors holding with yields of less than 4% and land tax ratcheting up....

https://www.realestate.com.au/property/69-lewis-st-camp-hill-qld-4152