Brisbane already edging past Sydney on last 5 years growth

No not the case...that..I was there (Brissie) over the last 2 days...people are getting out of Sydney and heading to Brisbane/Sunshine Coast/Gold Coast followed by Melbourne/Geelong, Adelaide, Hobart and even Perth in terms of major cities. They are also going to lifestyle locations like North Coast, Central Coast, and Upper Hunter!

Why thousands of people are abandoning this Aussie city each month

 

Sash we're talking about two different things I'm saying that Brisbane prices are dropping that's what the data is showing. You and I talked about this about 6 months ago on here and i was correct. How much Brisbane will drop I'm not quite sure but it will be at least 5% I'm thinking more like 10%. Australian property as a whole is heading down. I don't see Brisbane escaping that but I don't see it dropping by nearly as much as Sydney and Melbourne.

In relation to your comment about people moving yes that's absolutely true I've just moved to Sydney and the amount of people that tell me "why are you coming here everyone's going the other direction" is so large that I'm actually sick of hearing it. No exaggeration. There seems to be a general perception but that doesn't always result in people having the ability to get up and move the Queensland economy is struggling. The migration is a good thing for Brisbane but it's not enough to stop the drop in house prices that is worsening.

Brisbane's going to drop but it's probably going to be the best of a bad bunch it's not going to drop anywhere near like the peak to trough 30% that Sydney is going to. Also the types of suburbs that are popular with cashed up Sydney by is like the inner city suburbs of Paddington New farm those kind of suburbs are going to be fairly immune.

I think give it a couple of years and there was be some good bargains in places like Logan as those are going to be affected quite hard relatively speaking.
In 5 years time things are going to look really good because we should be back in a mining cycle and you're going to have things like Queens wharf completed cross River rail the city's actually get look quite different.

 

I don't know what the future holds and when but my agent here is Sydney just supplied a nice cycle clock, and even though in general, it shows BRI to be in recovery at this stage (not price falling?)....

 

Whoever you speak/interact with in Brisbane @Whitecat must be in a very negative area.. where I am, we cannot hire enough skilled people..friends in other companies also are expanding and finding the same. The state public service is at one of the largest head counts in probably a decade.. the population slowdown that occurred in 17-mid 18 is well over.

Houses in areas I pass through sell within weeks, not months like in Sydney, even with a bit of a downturn. Maybe they are not selling at top price right now, but they are selling.

With the government projects in the pipeline already (Cross River and Brisbane Metro), and more to come through as both sides of parliament attempt to buy marginal seats in Qld to win an election, more will be coming through in the next 5 years.

Whatever is hitting Brisbane right now is just a southern fear of contagion..give it 12-18 months and Brisbane will be well over that. As I've said before, Brisbane only booms when Syd & Melb go into downturns, this hasn't happened for a long time but I believe we may be there soon...

 

It's been showing as in recovery for about 18 months but now the prices have started to fall in the last couple of quarters a clock is one thing but facts are another

 

For about the last couple of years I have been googling Brisbane economy news fairly regularly and some recent reports indicated that it wasn't doing quite so well public service is one thing but that's predominantly funded by debt. There needs to be a bit of a mining boom for Queensland to do well perhaps some of the big projects like cross River rail will help.
Look I'm optimistic about Brisbane over the medium termI've made plenty of posts about that over the last couple of years but I think it's going to take a hit first.
The current drop is increasing and I think we'll see a noticeable drop in Brisbane as with everywhere but just not the same sort of drop as Sydney and Melbourne and yes Brisbane will rise before Sydney and Melbourne but I don't see that happening in the next couple of years.
And for me personally I have a vested interest in Brisbane going up so I've got no agenda to talk it down

 

Just wondering by when you say drop and say 5-10% - where and what stock are you actually talking about?

It’s common knowledge about the oversupply on apartments which will be affecting the overall figure your talking about, along with Logan & sub par suburbs that may get affected. I just don’t feel your comments are accurate when there’s many suburbs performing well around Brisbane and selling very quickly.

 

I think we had this convo many times over....data from these researchers does not capture the underlying trend...this is why a lot of people missed the downturn in Sydney and the upturn in Outer Melbourne and Geelong.

I ignore these stats.

As I said in 2016...Sydney's correction is now coming to fruition...but the magnitude has of correction (20-30% drop in most areas has surprised even me). Melbourne is the same..but Outer Melbourne has only dropped about 5-7%. Inner Melbourne has had up to 20% drops.

The lower socio areas in Sydney will be hit hard. But I suspect also some of the Inner areas with finance types...I reckon between CBA, Westpac, QBE, Macquarie, NRMA, AMP there will be at least 30,000 jobs going in the next 2-3 years from the financial services industry! Automation and Artificial Intelligence.

 

Not true mate, corelogic absoloutely does capture the trend. Literally all it does. Sure profit can be eeked by savvy fellers in niches that are not represented, but that's not what stats are for, they are to see the overall trend. Macro.

Secondly, corelogic index DID register the downturn in Sydney, you could quite easily spot the trend within a couple months.

Granted this should only be part of your DD, and on the ground too, but saying 'ignore these stats' is a bit ******** IMO. Macro and micro.

 

Lets look a bit closer then for some month by month corelogic data over three years. Classic case of choosing your facts to support your narrative. Some samples that took a big dive over xmas with peaks in Nov 18:
Ashgrove
Nundah
Mitchelton
Seven Hills
Yeronga

Those shown below right next door to be up:
Wavell Heights
Wilston
Windsor
Camp Hill
Geebung
Grange

Why are some down? Its interesting that the neighbours were up but then again Brisbane is a small market so medians can be affected more easily. I put it to the national sentiment, royal commission and less stock over that period. Dont be fooled though, agents are selling the homes that tick the boxes and they are selling them for a premium.

 

I'm referring to houses and yes of course there's going to be some variation as I mentioned strong suburbs like New farm Paddington West end will probably hold up and those on the fringes will drop by more but we've already seen a drop of 1 to 2% in the last couple of months I can't remember you'll have to check the core logic data but it's definitely going down

 

I can’t speak of all the suburbs but the reason Camp Hill is up while Seven Hills is down is because Camp Hill had heaps of new builds/major renovations/subdivision come to the market but you look at underlying land value, that hasn’t grown at all even in Camp Hill.

It’s really when the underlying land starts going up, a suburb is really making progress.

 

This report sums it up really for Bris.



IMHO Brisbane will be affected when those investors from Syd/Melb, who bought here during their boom thinking it would be next to boom, suddenly realise its not going up and decide to bite the bullet and sell. You might have pockets where prices are still holding but according to corelogic index, things are down for Brisbane. So far only Canberra is holding and Hobart is showing any upside action, its pretty much down everywhere else.

 

even the best growth suburbs in that list have only grown at around 4% per year compounded.. so not really that amazing.