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Brexit and financial crisis

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Kangabanga, 24th Jun, 2016.

  1. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    A brexit looks likely today, markets going crazy, will this be a trigger for crisis? Much like grexit vote in 2011?

    Looks like soros was right, gold is the place to be.
     
  2. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    There are already 2 threads about Brexit....
     
  3. House

    House Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Still has to go to Parliament but given it was surprisingly close, they could easily stay.

    Soros is buying the miners which will be a good call.
     
  4. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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    Who was shorting GBP today?

    I would like to meet that millionaire.
     
  5. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Probably George Soros, he predicted a 20% drop in pound if there was a brexit.

    In other news, David Cameron has stepped down..
     
  6. legallyblonde

    legallyblonde Well-Known Member

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    Dang my parents prebought their GBP for their upcoming trip
     
  7. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    well at least they didnt buy a house/unit in london.
     
  8. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    David Cameron has thrown in the towel, brexit is a done deal.

    Now Dutch may be up for a referendum as well.
     
  9. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

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    Agree. Standby for the domino effect.
     
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  10. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    [​IMG]

     
  11. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    History repeats itself. You just need the first push.
     
  12. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    I think much less craziness than what people are speculating will actually happen.

    Reasons:
    - EU is incentivised to keep a strong relationship with UK
    - There is a 2 year period for negotiations, lots of room for changes
    - Cameron has stepped down, can be a sacrifice for the party to save political face and then somehow try and pivot
     
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  13. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    @Chabs :check this out
    EU leaders call for UK to leave as soon as possible
    [The EU’s top leaders have said they expect the UK to act on its momentous vote to leave the union “as soon as possible, however painful that process may be” and that there will be “no renegotiation”.]

    - looks like the EU wants to get rid of UK a.s.a.p. There goes the relationship with UK and the 2 year period.
    - Cameron has stepped down. The main effect is destabilising the UK further by it not having a leader, but he has no choice, his big gamble just didnt pay off.

    Markets have been in a central bank bubble for quite some time now. BREXIT may just be the trigger for deleveraging of credit markets in europe followed by the rest of the world. Its like a "European Spring" Things are already pretty bad and if this spreads to China and hits the credit markets there, it will be pretty bad for us.

    The flight to YEN caused the stock market in Japan to crash and trigger circuit breakers at -8% today.
    ‘Please Stop!’ Says Daiwa Trader, as Topix Sinks Most Since 2011

    I reckon we are just seeing the tip of of the PANIC iceberg. Without EU membership the rating agencies will likely be downgrading things, causing more and more capital flight out of UK in the coming weeks. EU may lock UK out of its "common market" as well. We could very well see a UK recession coming soon.
     
    Last edited: 24th Jun, 2016
  14. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    Cameron hasn't stepped down yet. He's remaining as leader until the Conservative Party conference in October, whereupon his replacement will take over. The chances are the next leader will be Boris Johnson.

    Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, also looks vulnerable. I don't think that he was keen to remain in the EU, and wasn't exactly campaigning hard. The margins were narrow, and he might have made a difference.

    The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is talking up the possibility of another Scottish independence referendum. I think a re-run, with the choice between remaining in the UK and leaving the EU, or leaving the UK and remaining in the EU might have a different outcome.

    No-one knows what form Brexit is going to take. I think that there are three possibilities:
    • There's a longshot that the UK reconsiders, and remains in. If there's a general election in the next year, then it's possible that a pro-European party might get in, and change direction.
    • The UK leaves the EU, and remains in the European Economic Area, similar to Norway and Switzerland. There have been noises from the EU president that Out means Out, so this might not be an option.
    • The UK quits the EU completely. This will be a mess.
    In general, younger, urban, more educated, and wealthier people opted to remain, whereas the old, rural, and poor wanted to leave. The referendum has been very divisive, and I'm not sure if there's any way to synthesise a compromise that would keep both sides happy.
     
  15. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I logged into our super fund today expecting our balances to have fallen. They've risen slightly. We are heavily into foreign shares in the aggressive or reasonably aggressive areas of our fund. The balances rise and fall but both are around the same balance as this time last year.

    Has anyone else checked? The reports on the news are talking about falls in the sharemarket.
     
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  16. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    You realise all this posturing is just negotiation yeah? Don't let reality get in the way of a good panic though :)
     
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  17. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Had a quick look this morning with link market services and another site where everything is stored,and % objective definition $$$$ wise,maybe just over 7% down..

    And looking back the last few times this happened,20% -45% is also within the next six months,but it's only a number on a page as i don't have one cent in any superfund..
     
  18. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    Have a long silver/gbp position which is doing quite well, not millions though, only 30% profit.

    AUD weathered the brexit quite well, up against the euro.
     
  19. House

    House Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    image.jpeg
     
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  20. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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    Awesome. CFDs?