Bitcoin Stock To Flow Model = 288k in 2021?

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Michael.Knight, 8th May, 2020.

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  1. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Can's bitcoin's price after each halving be predicted? This investment bank quant thinks so. Price has been following the model's value pretty accurately so far. Guess we'll find out after the next halving!

    Bitcoin Stock To Flow Model
     
  2. Erica

    Erica Well-Known Member

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    Wow, that's a considerable change in thinking from (the same author?) only just one month prior, "The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

    Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

    (I can't find the authors name on the publication, but the same address code...)
     
  3. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    The author goes by the name "Plan B". He's a quant in an investment banking group in the Netherlands I believe. He has to protect his identity.

    He said in a podcast that this current model, S2FX, removes the time variable. So he's just using stock/flow and price variables, finding the best correlation. He projects $288k for btc based on scarcity rivalling gold after this halving.

    His other model, S2F, includes the time variable. Where it projects $100k.

    Two different models with different methods, each coming to the same conclusion of a higher value for btc after this halving.
     
  4. Lindsay_W

    Lindsay_W Well-Known Member

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    Personally I would be incredibly surprised if it goes that high.
    @Laker would be happy to hear this!
     
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  5. Laker

    Laker Well-Known Member

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    Haha yes. I definitely know of plan b and his model! I would be surprised if it doesn’t hit even the lower end of his model after this halving. Don’t forget these are USD figures!
     
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  6. Lindsay_W

    Lindsay_W Well-Known Member

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    I hope for your sake it does
    This will be an interesting thread to watch, especially in 12 months time
     
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