"Biggest crash in world history" -- screening this October

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 4th Oct, 2021.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 4th Oct, 2021
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  2. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Another reason not to get vaccinated? :p
     
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  3. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Big fan of Kiyosaki, but there is unlikely to be a big crash at this time.

    To anticipate these things, you need to look at the 10 year yield, amongst other things. When you see the US 10 year yield spike uncontrollably, that is a sign to sell. But we aren't seeing that.

    My guess is volatility galore in a world of low interest rates and monetary disorder. But no crash this month. The data just isn't good enough to spike the 10 year yield, short of a black swan event like a Taiwan invasion etc.
     
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  4. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe a single "expert" any more. There's so much bias, book sales, subscriptions....so much money in pretending to be an oracle that credibility takes a hit.

    I also think it's just plain impossible to predict the unpredictable.

    Black swan events happen every few years. No one can predict exactly when. Plan for it and deal with it.
     
  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Give me time, I'm working to turn you:p
     
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  6. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Imho the first two books are good for beginners (with a lot of caveats). After that…
     
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    The biggest fortunes are made after major crashes. Those who are robust enough to survive and have funds to buy will make a killing. I took advantage of the COVID crash and near the bottom (educated gamble) invested 7 figures into the stockmarket with some leverage on top. I did very well. Others did even better whose focus was stocks. With real estate, most of my buying was when sentiment was very low. Most have trippled within a 10 year period. I recall a couple of years ago I was saying on here there are massive opportunities in Sydney's market as well as Brisbane. Many folks thought it was absolutely absurd. Some even attacked me lol

    DTIs, economic jargon and bubble talk was rife. I knew it was all nonsense. There was value in markets to be had and financially I was able to enter more markets. Today those properties have made a killing. I've sold some at record high prices to lock in profits. I have done similar with real estate in China and Taiwan. No one knows where the bottom is. For me, close enough is good enough. Even 3 years off is fine if you buy well, in high demand areas.


    There really is no secret. It's simple. Invest when you can identify value. Buy add value if you can. Don't over commit financially. Rise and repeat. That recipe (obviously simplified here) has never let me down.

    Ignore all the noise. Though in reality it's much easier said than done.

    Mindset plays a mammoth part.
     
    Last edited: 4th Oct, 2021
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I have had a 10%+ yield from US property since 2011.
    I sold some properties last year to balance risk, but the US property boom is on a different level than our boom in Oz. Stock keeps falling and demand keeps rising every month, 50 States:p:confused:

    Interest rates can be locked in for 30 years, and they just keep printing money. 3-4 trillion next month
     
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Agree

    I am now watching my children start their investing journey and helping them navigate the risk. So they benefit from my mistakes/success. Its fulfilling.

    They like barefoot investor, he seems logical.
     
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  10. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Buy cash and make a stash. After the crash, splash that cash on some trash.
     
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  11. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Your posts (like these) have helped me immensely.

    Thank you.
     
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  12. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Barefoot is different. He doesn't predict anything or try to be anything he is not. He doesn't even call himself an expert.

    It's just solid, can't-go-wrong advice.

    Absolutely perfect for people starting out.
     
    Last edited: 4th Oct, 2021
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  13. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    No yield inversion on the 10 years bond or the 2 years bond.
    No crash coming in October - but a correction of sort YES.
    Drama queen Dent haven't been right for a while now. He is desperate for a win.
    Is he putting out a new book or doing a seminar tour?
    Usually that is when he is at his loudest banging on his pot pantry. :D
     
  14. Gav

    Gav Well-Known Member

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    One day he will be right.....


    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    The guy is absolutely clueless. Beyond a joke imo.
     
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  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Are you suggesting I should read his body of work as I am absolutely clueless as well ;).
     
  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....whilst there won't be a immediate crash....high chance of it happening....but to me a crash is where medians drop 20%...but some suburbs more so.

    A lot of people will be learn the hard way if they are not prepared....it just can't go up forever thought I would like it to...
     
  18. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I do recall Gold coast fell 40% last down turn/crash, talking apartments/unit. This was a biggie

    People have short memories….. No one believes Australia has ever had a down turn/crash …..cos charts only show a continual rise…. Lol
     
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  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....:rolleyes:...punch drunk......Sydney median down 15% over 2017-2019.....Perth was down about 25% from peak!

    GC ..Perth...Sydney have big ups and downs.

    Lots people will be swimming naked when the tide recedes....:p
     
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  20. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    I believe that the argument for a crash is:
    1. The stock market is at record highs on a variety of metrics, such as the Buffett indicator. (Market capitalisation to GDP.)
    2. Historically, October is the most dangerous month for market crashes.
    3. Evergrande will be the trigger.
    I've heard a lot of bearish voices in the media. Some are YouTube financial advisors, others are people like Jeremy Grantham, who has a long track record and is probably worth listening to.

    I'm not convinced by the crash in October thesis, but I suspect there will be a correction in the not too distant future. It'll probably happen in March when nobody is expecting it. :D