ASX Shares BHP Billiton

Maybe they'll get taken over by Blackmores in an all scrip offer...

 

Hi, BHP is back above $18 as perhaps everyone is aware. I just sold at $18.22

The lowest I paid was $16.35 so it looks like the temporary floor is around $16.50

Hasn't gone back to my initial purchase price of $18.40 so can't say that I've made very much yet.

But it's interesting to say the least!

KY

 

At least it's very simple if you don't run too many portfolios at once,i bought in just below 20 bucks and i was prepared for 16.50 or the support line then the bounce, sept /oct 2010 BHP was trading at 38.15,the same time as Blackmores was 22.60 CSL 32.55,Fortescue 4.04,CBA 51.36, there are a few winners and losers in the previous few,but anyone that bought Blackmores back then would be happy,the same maybe as "BHP maybe will be in a few years..imho..

 

Hi, simple is the understatement of the century as before the BHP thing, I held only 1 single company in my 'portfolio'.

Now I have added BHP, I hold 2 companies. Is that cool or what?

KY

 

At least the power of ten rule does not work against you with 2, when you hold above ten different trades and the pivot point goes the wrong way on daily movements on the downtrend line it can get interesting,i know some that only hold CBA long term 20 years the day price does not worry them,the same as BHP a few i know only hold them,and they never sold ..imho..

 

i think i might wait till we hear if BHP will be cutting their dividend or not. although i wonder if a cutting of the dividend is being expected by the market and thus already priced in?

BHP as a long term hold has to be good at these prices

 

Yes. BHP has already said so.

Why? Seems to be the common wisdom...beware heuristics based on recency bias / anchoring.

 

I think they are a quality business. I think they will be able to cope and manage through the bottom of this commodity cycle and potentially come out on the other side in even a stronger position from a market share point of view. Plenty of smaller miners won't be able to cut costs like BHP can and will simply fail with commodity prices at this levels, leaving the larger miners in a stronger position.

BHP are also reasonably well diversified for a mining company. They are far less reliant on iron ore than say Rio Tinto. Regardless, the world still needs minerals and BHP will be around for a long time to provide it. I think that whilst China slows, there is the potential for significant growth within India and BHP stands in good stead to potentially benefit from this.

The Samarco disaster is obviously a horrible tragedy for the people involved, but the negative publicity that BHP has received due to it and the somewhat unknown with regards to how much it might affect BHP's bottom line has fed into the strong sell off. In reality, the compo BHP will have to pay is not going to affect them that much.

BHP could obviously go lower, but for a long term hold i think it has its place in a well diversified portfolio.

 

It's a 2% position for me, but I think avoidance of materials is a "free kick". Look at the very long term all industrials vs all ordinaries chart. BHP has been the beneficiary of the largest commodity price boom in living memory and yet the share price is back where it was at the start..thank god for dividends.

I will agree with you that if you want materials in your portfolio you can do far worse than Bhp. The question is for long term buy and hold, why do you want materials? Whilst I hear that the big 3 are smashing the higher cost producers, all three are producing more than ever into declining demand...and look where prices are. Agency risk is a real issue in materials too....when management is cashed up (top of cycle - asset prices highest) they destroy value by bidding up asset prices to show shareholders they are doing something....and justify their pay. When things go pear shaped 3 years later it's all unforeseen this is the nature of materials, boom-bust and only source of competitive advantage
Is being a low cost producer which requires ongoing reinvestment, invariably at near top of cycle prices.

Please understand I am not having a go at you, this kind of discussion is good and I welcome other views, it's how we all learn.

 

Yeh, all good. Of course you're not having a go. Just a good debate.

I currently don't hold BHP. And as per my post earlier (#119), I'm bearish on the company in the near term.

I think if one wants to include a commodity/resources company in their portfolio, BHP is a goodie, particularly for long term.

In terms of why one might want to buy a resources company, its a good question. They aren't the sort of companies that really resonate with what i like to look for. i.e., they are heavily dependent on a product the price of which is largely out of their control.

 

BHP is continuing its stellar run.

I laughed when I read someone saying they were waiting for $14 before buying... and yet we're almost there.

 

Hi, anyone daring to buy? I did and am already ruing it.

KY

 

Hi, I just checked and it's a bloodbath on the ASX today.

KY

 

Iron Ore has been on a little bull run of late albeit from record lows

 

Commodity cycles from highs to lows are years/decades long. Surely there are better bets/returns out there.

Please don't get me wrong. BHP is a great company. I just think commodities isn't the place to be for the next few years cause you can get better returns elsewhere.

 

It should be a good day today

 

@Chrispy, did you hold out until now with S32?

pinkboy

 

Yes held on to both.

 

Looks like Iron Ore back above $70. Who would have thunk it. Never thought my BHP and S32 for that matter would be so positive so quickly.

 

Don't worry, it'll be back to lows soon.