ASX Shares BHP Billiton

I know one that bought in at around 25$$, he would be $65,804 down a few minutes ago,, another one bought into at 21$$ he would be 26.000,00$$ down,my entry price was 19.74
and that is just below 14 k on the wrong side of where i started plus entry costs,the role of the media has just about played this out in random events ,because if you go the opposite you don't fall into the suckers trap..imho..

 

BHP breached 18 pesos on open. It floated above 18 pesos even in the GFC. How low can the 'Great Australian' go?

I have currently an interest of sorts from on of their 'spin offs' which I will reveal shortly when things are more solid, but their fate too is questionable.

pinboy

 

A lot of investors did not think it would go this low,or others think it will stop at the mid $15.00
but it will stop somewhere,plus the big if is if the annual dividend yield stays the same,it would be getting close on previous number and todays price would be above 10%franked..

 

Just wondering did anyone buy BHP?,--17.170 ---.-0.820,they would not want to go into panic selling if they had a few trading days like this ..imho..

 

I bought back at $21 bugger! Thinking of buying some more now....quite tempted.

Cheers,
Michael

 

Same here. Bought few at $20.5... Bugger it is but I'm in for long term. Happy to keep for 20 years. Thinking the same about getting more. Worried about about the falling knife though.

 

$17.05. Will it go any lower is anyone's guess. How much did you guys buy?

 

Good way to learn how an investment like this will behave under varying economic conditions
when it goes this way,i bought a few at just under 20bucks some i know bought in at 21- then 25 dollars,and one of our daughters bought in yesterday at 18 plus dollars, i told her to buy CBA when they were above 95 bucks then they went into $71.60 range, so this one will also give her an idea on what it's like to ride it down then experience the upswing...

 

.Still nowhere near price I'd consider buying them. Simplest thing to do is look at the PE ratio, compare that to market PE not much less), compare it to sector PE (probably about same) then consider that PE is for 2015FY when commodity prices were higher than the are now - ie their profit is likely to fall next reporting season.

Copper production expansion at Escondida (with dramatic drop in copper prod cost) is the big shining light for BHP atm, but this won't be completed for a couple years yet so unlikel;y to influence SP positively anytime soon.

And if you don't think a mining company will cut its dividend,see Anglo American news overnight. Anglo American suspends dividend, may sell Australian assets

 

Bit late now to start looking over all the different opinions for me,plus it's less painfull short-term
losing 50% then losing 100% long term,but just a quick question with the low close price yesterday how low will it go??.

 

Looking back on long term chart, there is vey little resistance @ $15, or even $10. Whilst my gut feel is it wont go down to the $10 level, who knows, it might! The next dividend announcement will be the turning point. If they brave their progressive dividend policy they will have cash nightmares, but perhaps level out SP. My real gut feel is they will cut the dividend right down or even cut it out, and then we will see the SP go as low as $10.

RIO is teetering on $40....if it closes there, it could go right back to GFC levels quickly circa $23.


pinkboy

 

The other question is how long will the price remain at low levels.

Resource cycles can take a long period to turn.

 

Short term, who knows, the market will be subject to the whims of large insto players. There will be a lot of dead cat bounced along the way I expect.

Long term, all depends on financial results. And imo for 15/16FY, the outlook is grim...same for 16/17. And that's based on current commodity prices...I expect commodity prices to continue to deteriote though hopefully that will be offset by falling AUD (I expect it to drop into the low 60s).

Mind you BHP wont be alone...most resource companies will go the same way. Many have not yet been rerated as they have not had a catalyst like BHP had with its Brazil mine.

The one shining light for BHP is the massive expansion underway at it's Escondida mine. This will dramatically reduce its prod costs. However this expansion will still take a couple years to complete so unlikely to impact the SP positively at all for some time.

 

Just surfing for free brokerage.

No more free brokerage (say $600) from NAB and Westpac.

Only e*Trade - ANZ and Commsec are doing free brokerage.
$500 - ANZ
$600 - CommSec

 

Just looking at the numbers for China,if he has rode this all the way down add compounding excluding div's franking he would be 285.600.00 on the wrong side of the fence a few minutes ago,and as the panic volume starts it trending down again,at ten dollars i'm just trying to think up a new argument that it may drop into those levels..imho..

 

Tough luck IMHO. You know you never want to experience being in such a situation ever youself.

Knowing how conservative China used to be. I think after BHP and WOW trades he will only put his money in Bank Deposit from now on even if they don't pay him any interest

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

I think this is a good topic showing why I have been sold on low cost market indexes rather than stock picking. It's just very hard to pick a stock - even blue chip - and unexpected events happen that have big consequences. Interesting discussion nevertheless!

 

Hi, beginning to look like BHP is my new falling knife! Bought a few more shares at 16.79

Temporarily looking OK. Heaven knows what'll happen next.

KY

 

I agree largely. The greatest benefit is the mental freedom that comes from this approach. Your own emotions can't get in the way as much. Though even with index ETFs, people still get tripped up.

To take the other side, if you picked your own stocks or invested with some active managers (depending on who, but any worth their salt have been avoiding BHP) you would have outperformed the index this year

 

The issue at hand is not "stock picking" but portfolio construction, or complete lack thereof in this case. 3 stocks is not a proxy for the market....whereas 1 ETF is. In old mates case, a 20-40 position industrials portfolio in equal weight would see him "A OK". As is, he has landed in a perfect storm scenario across these three positions, couldn't have really gone worse for him.