ASX Shares BHP Billiton

BHP still went from $8 in 2003 to peak at above $40 by the end of the boom. So that's what it did during the mining boom.

I've held some since the start of the bust, that I held from before the boom. Sure I wish I'd sold, but not much point selling now. I did get rid of most of them years ago, but have simply just held onto some as a core holding.

See ya's.

 

Are you looking for tips?

Problem with talking up positions publically is it makes the anchoring effect stronger, which can cloud judgement.

Also generally tips don't work, you need to come to your own conclusions around why you are holding something and know it well. Otherwise, at the critical juncture you will make the wrong call.

Like buying property I guess, you need to DYOR. I don't mind posting a list of open positions though, just understand that my goal of c.10% total return over 20+ years may well vary from others, ie. You won't get rich in 2 years with what I hold. Note, not suggesting to buy any of them or at which price...just a list of stocks. Family trust main account ;

AMP
ANN
AHY
APA
ASX
ANZ
BHP
BRK.B / US
CVX / US
CBI / US
CCP
CWN
CSL
FLT
JMHLY / SG
JNJ / US
MFG
MFF
MKL / US
NSRGY / US
ORG
PM / US
PTM
QVE
SVW
SOL
SDF
WES
WOW
WMT / US
XRO

ETFs ; QOZ , VAS , VTS , VHY , IXI are around 40% of this portfolio weight.

SMSF account has a lot more LICs, all the regular suspects. I've also got a watchlist of about 20 stocks that I am waiting on entry point for....some may take many years. In future years, the weight of new money will go to LIC and ETFs, with about 30-40% to direct stocks only.

 

I am just an enthusiast, and lack the long term experience that you have. What I will say is that like you, I am still constantly learning, and getting better I hope.

Overconfidence and hubris are to be avoided at all costs, so is feeling the need to do something all the time. Stock investing is such a rich field of study, not only do you continue to learn about industries, business models, risk and human failings, but you learn a lot about yourself in the process as well. It's bloody enjoyable

 

I love this line.

As a novice in share investing, I am spending more time lately asking myself why I'm making the decisions I'm making about the companies in investing in.

It's led me back to a familiar path of questioning ourselves about goals, paths and planning. Not unsimilar to what we did with our personal IPs, our SMSF strategy and our other investments.

I'm embarrassed to admit, when I first started out with shares a long time ago, I was as naive as to think that one just invested in blue chip shares in the ASX 200 and everything would take care of itself.

In the last 12 months I think I've realised how much there is to learn, and as The Falcon says above, it's a bloody enjoyable process. One that is aided from you guys sharing your knowledge and experience. Thank you

 

I tried to reverse this process for going long, but it doesn't work.

My trades are short (<3m) and short (selling) which doesn't work in reverse. All my trades rely on panic and over reaction which is quite easy to predict.

Purchasing undervalue and identifying a trend that will allow long term growth to continue is something far removed from simply applying the opposite to a short.

Unfortunately....otherwise it would be easy for me!

 

If you are asking yourself this, then if you haven't already I highly recommend you grab a copy of "One up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. You can also just google it to find article with the most important points from the book.

 

No I haven't, but I'm sure somebody (maybe Falcon?) has mentioned it in this forum before. I'm going to have a look at bedtime to see if I can find it on ibooks. Thanks for the recommend.

 

My point wasn't aimed at the returns from trough to peak, but as a long term hold over the course of the boom. It didn't use the boom times to wisely invest for the future of the business. Since it's unlikely to get such favourable conditions again, my faith in the business isn't high.

If you were more of a trader and took advantage of the price action from trough to peak, that's great, but a very different kettle of fish than a long term hold.

 

Sometimes avoiding the losers is much more important than picking big winners

 

Not exactly. We don't really follow experts' hot spots do we? I wouldn't know what to answer if any asks what the next boom suburb is going to be. Still I'm comfortable enough to say... "avoid Sydney and look at Brisbane". Is it possible to say similar statement in shares?

BTW, thank you for listing your holdings. It gives better understanding when I read you posts.

 

I think in shares, people do tend to follow alot more than the "property hot spots" as I would assume, the majority of people who dip into shares are playing with their disposable income rather than taking out large mortgages? Could be wrong but that's how I see it and would also interact

 

Absolutely. It is not sometimes.. I would say practically all the time!
Prices need to double in value to recover from 50% fall!

 

Charlie Ellis, The losers game

https://www.ifa.com/pdfs/ellis_charles_the_losers_game_1975.pdf

 

Yep, two very critical points. Damn "feeling the need to do something" is still something I battle with occasionally. A lot of this game really is knowing your weaknesses and your tolerance to risk etc. Learning about what assets to invest in, asset allocation and the like is the easy part, it is understanding ones psychology and managing this in the process that seems to be the secret to success. Also we can through exposure and experience learn to improve our psyological reaction to events. Despite my somewhat nervous and conservative disposition I have overtime learnt to be very comfortable buying (actually excited) and holding shares when markets are going through the fires of hell and fear is through the roof.

Our family trust did originally own a lot more individual stocks but overtime I have reduced their number mostly to the larger more familiar industrial stocks due to one main reason. And that is my wife doesn't share the same enthusiasm as I do for managing a pile of shares. So if anything was to happen to me I want the management of our investments to be as simple as it can be. As for the SMSF again sticking to a reduced number of set and forget LICs and a couple of ETFs not only keeps this manageable for my better half but also keeps the administration simple and therefore cost effective.

For example, this is the SMSF portfolio:

Aus Large Cap:
ARG
AFI
DJW
MLT
VHY (if one more had to go it would be this one)
VAS
WHF

Aus Mid/Small Cap:
MIR
QVE

International:
FGG
PAI
PMC

The above is pretty much as close to set and forget as I feel I can get for my wife if she ever needs to take over managing it whilst still giving adequate diversification. The number of funds no doubt could be reduced further (especially in the large cap space) but due to the amount invested we feel more comfortable having it spread across a number of managers. And for our SMSF administrator it is easy and thus relatively cheap to process.

Happy investing.

 

Poor choice of words for a BHP thread austini

 

Looks like BHP is still going down in value,it would be interesting to see what happens if it goes below $18.00,a mate bought in at $21.00,a few minutes ago he would down 26k..

 

Yes. I should have this moved to the LIC thread. Sorry for getting off topic.

 

Samarco issue:
Justiça de MG exige depósito de R$ 1 bi da Samarco para órgãos ambientais - Notícias - Cotidiano

Financial penalty doesn't look bad.. BHP needs to deposit about 500Mil AUD for government's use.

 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151130/pdf/433f29js1v9l7l.pdf

 

Hi, if I'd read Willair's post, I might not have jumped in and bought 1000 shares of BHP The price is 18.37

I'd been thinking of buying it when it was 25.

So interesting times ahead!

KY