VIC Best Melb Strategy (600-900k)

No wonder it looks familiar! LOL

Chadstone has a much more family orientated feel than Reservoir, the actual Chadstone Shopping Centre is actually in East Malvern, not Chadstone! I personally live at the back of Harvey Norman, not exactly the most picturesque part but very convenient...now if they can only extend that bike track.

Chinese love schools and there are quite a few options around here, more had Kennett not shut down and merged some schools. I'm still iffy about the long term prospects of Clayton, Reservoir will eclipse it one day, all it has going is a Uni and Hospital, great for rental prospects and probably the removal of the level crossing (Sky Rail) plus I think it's run it's race...

Reservoir more or less resembles Oakleigh - large Southern European town centre and population.

As long as you make a calculated guess and did the homework, you just take a stab knowing the risks and accepting them. With the benefit for 20/20 hindsight, it is always a story of would have, should have, could have but if you made a big gain, you would go ahh it was lucky at the time such and such, but you were a nervous wreck after the auction at the time.

I looked at Nunawading, Chadstone, Ashburton, Forest Hill, Burwood East for my ip at the time in Sydney and eventually moving back as a ppor now. For every house I was serious about or lost at auction I kept records of and an eye out for nearby properties that sold afterwards.

Had I made my move on Ashburton in 2011 (from memory it was sold for mid 600s?) it is worth roughly about 1.4-1.5 mil now, easily the biggest gain. I made the plunge in Chadstone - was about 70-100K cheaper at the time, bridesmaid suburb but obviously fewer amenities and facilities.

Had I purchased any of the others, I would have made significant gains anyway....

 

I used to live in Tooronga Rd (East Malvern,) and Clayton close to Monash Uni (so I know the area well and I went o Melb and Monash Uni (both caufield and clayton campuses). Back then Chadstone was kinda rough man well I remember taking some photos off power avenue like recently (and some shouted some obsceneties abt taking photos )

I think Clayton has a bit more steam left (Monash is a very good university - with law, medical degrees highly in demand). It has overseas universities in Malaysia, Africa etc hence the pipeline of students coming is non-stop. Secondly, that clayton strip is turning to be like a mini box-hill too. I went to Carnegie and it has so many Chinese restaurants now compared to before. As said the demographics in Clayton is diff to reservoir. There is also a sizable Korean population around the clayton area as well. Agree you assessment on oakleigh and reza as they are a lot of greeks there (agent wise etc) hence the European feel.

 

Chadstone started to gentrify in the early 2010s, when I moved back in a few years ago, I got burgled in my first month living there, but I really had nothing except a crap Soniq TV and Toshiba laptop stolen. A lot of the old commission builds are actually in the best spots of Chadstone - side closer to the Holmesglen station, whereas the family orientated end historically more expensive is now probably cheaper (nearer to those powerlines).

I don't know about Clayton, I think it's reached it's peak, you can only gentrify and pretty up a suburb to some extent. A lot of people call Clayton a "taste of the West in the East" lol...the surroundings are flat...still some rough spots left and purely riding the uni wave. What if this wave suddenly stops? It's about 17km ish from the CBD and some parts like Clayton South are still very industrial. Sometimes I think Monash is built in reverse - the main Campus really needs to be in Caulfield and vice versa. $900K cannot buy you much these days in Clayton.

 

I know, my friend use to rent off power avenue in ashwood coming off warrigal rd (they're very close to the station and also that small strip of shops there are not bad).Clayton really is just about the same distance as glen Waverley to CBD. you look at Ringwood (even further already and it is like clayton prices). the "uni wave" is unlikely to stop as many overseas governments (Asian) have scholarship programs embedded with Monash Uni (in many areas of commerce, engineering,medicine, law etc). Hence the students will be sponsored and coming in.

I have to say Monash Uni has aleady done the groundwork worldwide having sister universities across the globe (Malaysia, Italy, South Africa, Mumbai) and the first to get a license to operate one in China (Suzhou). The pipeline is that big Unless some gov regulation stops the influx don't see the wave going down any time soon. Caufield campus really is too small, the libraries, engineering in clayton are massive. There is a reason why GWSC and Balwyn HIgh School has taken the surbubs to where they are. REally there're just like any other Australia suburb. Also clayton although some parts look rundown there aren't that many or any even ex-housing commission houses like in other suburbs.

There is the ikea etc off springvale road taking up. Anything off Welllington Road is like a gold mine in clayton. I have seen stuff being sold like 2-3 million alone.

 

I thought the best parts of Clayton was that around the hospital or near the hospital? Off Wellington Road is only served by bus and not that convenient. Having said that, a relative I discussed earlier purchased near on Eva Street, Clayton which is in my opinion much nicer and less scraggy looking than other parts. Really, Monash Uni is more Mulgrave than Clayton when you think about it..

Glen Waverley is 20km from the CBD, if you use the stations are a distance point, Clayton station is 17km, so roughly equal to Jordanville on the Glenny line, in fact they are on the some latitude point. Make no mistake though, Clayton is excellent for rent, if you're a landlord, as for capital growth, I think it'll move sideways...Clayton averages around $1,000K if you will, Reservoir is probably $850K in the best spots...

Clayton in 2013/2014 is where Reservour is today, about to shoot up...

 

I think Clayton will just slowly move but not have massive jumps like before. When things start to get expensive ppl start to Branch out to next door suburbs

I agree there was a major shift 2-3 year ago in Clayton everything started moving. I mean reservoir was too cheap based on it's distance to CBD and so was sunshine. Even St. Albans now ranking in 600kish sale which is crazy.

So u gonna pull the gun in that auction ?
My auction success rate is like 3 out of 42 auctions in Melb

 

I'd rather wait and see, need to get a feel of the auctions in Reza first. My obsession with it is how it's still under a million and 12-14km from the CBD. I'd be very, very surprised if the one I showed you went below 750K, if your mate just purchased around the corner for mid 700s and it was a slightly smaller block and a wooden house (not BV), it's probably a stone throw's nearer to Oakhill. I reckon it would be sold for $780K, but that's out of my comfort zone and I'd rather let it go than go any higher than $750K! Once the station is buried and ring road is complete, add another $200K!

I lived in St. Albans as a kid...heck, no freeway back then (Western Ring Road), Sunshine Avenue was a mud/dirt track. St. Albans has come in leaps and bounds, school is no longer trash, level crossing is gone, town is no longer dead/full of druggies (rejuvenated by the Vietnamese). $600K for a mere 16-18km from the CBD is not a bad proposition for it, considering South East Clayton same distance is $1mil.

I find it hilarious, I showed the house I'm going for to a friend who lived in Reza as a kid, and he was like whoa, I'm going for the same house. He now lives in Doncaster but it's like it's done a 360 degree turn, now going back to the same suburb to invest where he grew up in.

 

Let's see how the auction market goes this year. this week would be among the first few auctions from the buildup in xmas. I mean ex-housing comm houses are selling closet to 800K now. A lot of stuff is happening around the area (like the station etc) ring road, 830 plenty Rd, Redevelopments of northland etc.

Nothing wrong though (footscray I remember was like a suburb that never moved till recently and now it's a like million dollars to get a decent place due to proximity to CBD - it is a matter of also learning the surbub (I wouldn't know too much about St Albans outside of the stabbings and drug deallings in the past and stuff from the news. It does take time and effort to attend the auctions and inspections. Without doing this, it would be hard to know which are the good pockets, zones, proximity to shops - even bundoora, kingsbury, preston, reservoir (it did take me a while to familiarize with the suburbs and roads) I think boronia is another good suburb to look at (which I am studying now).

 

Yeah that's a nice approach. I think reza at 800k is too expensive for me now if I am looking for a growth 600k IP, which will make life overseas easier in the next few years.

I've also been looking at Boronia, very green suburb but, it really is quite far from the CBD.

Any thoughts on Clayton South? The rubbish landfills there make it smell sometimes according to posts on here and whirlpool. But slowly they are closing them down, and once the main one in Clayton south is closed, may be worth speculating on as it shoots up to join Clayton?

Because I grew up in the east around box hill/Doncaster, I knew the areas quite well. So looking for an IP north, and west will take some research. @melbournian thanks for your detailed reza suggestions, they are great.

@JL-1 Im still on the fence about holding off for now, what indicators are you going to use as a sign that we should jump in? Or perhaps it's best to wait for the RBA rate change?

At the tail end of a boom, if the general trend is approximately flat, will the suburbs that haven't seen the same level of growth like thomastown, outside of sunshine, continue to grow faster? Ie. Rezza has grown more than Doncaster & other eastern suburbs lately. I guess one fear is buying an IP for growth, and it too flattens out similar to a potential PPOR in the east for a few years

 

I think rezza still has many pockets still in the 600Kish mark like further towards thomastown, edwarnes lake area. The growth happened closest in preston and recently only with the rezoning the broadway area has experienced the biggest jump in growth.

Doncaster is more a dev play purchase (if you purchase something 1.25 mil and expecting a growth to 1.4 million is very unlikely). I think it is at the tail of the boom. I have been researching sunshine a year + ago (still thinking is at still in the middle boom or at the end?). It is too hard to cover the auctions across multiple suburbs over time hence can only dedicate time to a few selected suburbs and sunshine is across the town. If covering reza and doncaster or even balywn is ok as they're in the same direction. You sort of can tell if you to auctions and see the action when what was 1-2 bidder (and number of bids) to 3-4 bidders (with longer and more bidding involved) I picked it in maidstone when it was in the 600Kish, and the suddenly it moved to 800-900K but was too slow to react). Clayton South as long as you are close to centre rd, you really are clayton. anything futher out out too much is difficult transportation wise.

Boronia still requires a bit of research (I think possibly it could be like Ringwood ) Close to knox shoping centre and a lot of fallout from the wantirna south etc where it is selling for record prices.

 

Really, the only suburbs worth even looking at now are sub $900K, anything above that, it's no different to gambling at Crown Casino. Clayton South is alright, when I was helping out a relo with an auction and doing my homework back in 2014ish, it was already $500-$600K, probably $700-$800K now. I'd rather Springvale than Clayton South, but that's unfortunately also through the roof.

Boronia is way too far from the CBD - I think it's pretty dangerous to invest or over invest in anything 30km+ from the CBD, personally I think 20km+ is too far, hence this is where I think only the North and West. I'd rather look at places like Eltham or Thomastown before Boronia, since G-Dubz is from Box Hill/Donny, most other suburbs will look "ugly" any stretch.

The thing holding me back from St. Albans is that it's piping hot at the moment like Sunshine. My parents sold back in 2007 for $290K, in St. Albans in no man's land....too far out from the city centre or any station. I used to bike to school and to the station when I reached uni for years! Honestly, it is not as bad as people and the media publicise it to be. I grew up in the 90s - height of the heroin drug problem in Melbourne and I've never touched drugs. I recall even suburbs like Box Hill in the early 2000s was dangerous, Timezone was patrolled by police almost.

North is probably a better bet than West, as it's closer to a lot of wealthier suburbs - trust me, it does wonders to house prices funnily enough. When you think about it, anything East of Plenty Road is considered expensive and "leafy"...grab a map and look at the lush green parks on the East side of it.

Don't get too personal when investing, that was the advice I got, I won't really live in the place, it's no more than say, buying shares.....just think of it as a cash cow.

I like your quote on the 1-2 bidders bit, yes, as I can re-tell, when my relative auctioned Clayton, the auction was DEAD, there was just now real activity/interest let alone ANY movement. The crowd was small enough to fit on the lawn and not crowded or huddled. That was 2014 Clayton, many of the bidders were younger Asians or Mainland Chinese, many of them I talked to were either renting in Glenny or Box Hill at the time!

Fast forward to 2015/2016, the crowds were pretty big....auctions were WAY more lively and auctioneers had their work cut out...

 

That has always been the things I advocate about - leafty suburbs (but you also have to consider people in Sydney - just about closer into the city is million dollars). Also valuation of an asset is different as there are different price threshold which is why ANZ and CBA share price is more than Double. Also not necessarily an expensive asset is a bad move, it's all depends on the strategy and valuation (look at Nathan tinkler - in the early years he had the expertise to value mines that were undervalued - and took out 500k loan to purchase 11 mil and sold it for 57 mil a year later. There are manufactured growth methods through dev (hence the reason why the zoning can change a property to a million dollars as you saw in broadway). I already have a few in the north but it is all about undervalued or potential assets that can grow.

I used to visit box hill often in the 2000s. (I don't think it was bad at all with that timezone etc). it was a desired area in the 90s to the 2000s by the Chinese. If you're talking dodgy then dandenong in the 90s to 2000s was dodgy and so was springvale ( but times as you now have changed) as you know

That's pretty Hard to say or generalize - boronia is (all the suburbs around are up - ringwoods, Croydon, wantirna south, knox ) Even Mooroolbark has million dollar sales (some even more than doncaster) and that's futher than boronia. Knox is also under redevelopment to be the 2nd biggest mall in Australia.

I never get personal or emotional about investing unless you're buying as a PPOR.
So if not that reza auction? are you going for others? What's the zoning like in St ALbans and also since you have localized knowledge the advantage should be more for you.

 

Hi, great thread and really insightful info.
Hoping someone can help me as I "stuck" deciding on my next next move strategy: we've got a house in Watsonia and would like to relocate to somewhere near Thornbury. As prices near thornbury almost double compared to Watsy, is there any chance Watsy would catch up or its better to sell the house in Watsy now and save&hope for a correction to be able to upgrade at later stage. We can move into current IP in preston and will be mortgage free which will allow us to save 40k a year.
Tnx.

 

How do we all feel about Cheltenham? I'm on the fence with proximity of Moorabbin airport and appears many properties have airport environ easements (don't really know what this means to be fair).

It's the wrong side of the Nepean and a fair distance from CBD but appears to have buses regularly and Southland complex not too far?

 

Cheltenham is a big suburb, it has 3 parts, the part near the airport the other side of Warrigal road (which is the smallest), the middle which is between Nepean highway and Warrigal in and around Southland, and the beach side of the Nepean highway which actually resides in Bayside council, the rest is in Kingston. The beach side property prices mimic Beaumaris, they are around the $1.3m+ mark, it's a very pretty area as it's very leafy and is home to Victoria golf club and Royal Melbourne gc.

The middle ring represent awesome value and has seen incredible growth. As for "wrong side of Nepean" it's essentially in the same spot as Bentleigh and East Brighton from the beach, but a few km's down the road. It has a MASSIVE number of secondary schools in the area, around 7 or 8 and is zoned to some very desirable public schools. There's a new public secondary school being built in Beaumaris as well. The outer ring, as you said is near the airport, but I wouldn't see it as a problem unless you intend to build a 7 story apartment block. It's a 2 min drive to the beach, but property prices have probably increased, particularly in that middle ring by 30-40% in the last 2 years. The median in there is basically $1m+ now.

 

Thanks CTB - sensational insight, sadly it sounds all the positive gains have been had.... I'm too late to the party

 

I wouldn't say that at all. When I look at places in and around the east near box hill and their medians, the SE in Melbourne has the best potential in the whole of the city imo. Highett, Chelt, Mentone, Beaumaris should all be blue chip suburbs of $2m+ given there facilities, standard of living, schools, proximity to the beach and accessibility to the CBD.

I think there's scope for another 30% in the next 2-3 years

 

Lovely, this is what I want. So the area from Nepean down to centre Dandenong over to Warragul, sounds like the pick of the area.

I'm seeing plenty of Reno properties, fresh kitchens and rendering ... ideally I'd love a place yet to be tarted up but appears to be in short supply.

 

@willister Crazy price at St. Albans where u grew up. 1.8 mil for 613 sqm. Growth zone

Sydney investor snaps up St Albans house for $1.81 million at auction

Guess No stats would pick it up. Where else researching zones and council plans did and flying over to Melbourne to check it out

Heidelberg west is also crazy once the ugly duckling suburb housing commssion of Melbourne, redevelopment and selling off the ex-housing commission blocks sold at auction for 808k 120k over reserve. Redevelopment and sale of ex housing commission is always better than more housing commission allocated to the suburb

 

I saw this article too and instantly got depressed =/ St Albans?! Developers have seemingly....unlimited pockets. As a working professional, I've seen most of my colleagues and friends buy before the boom. The window for trying to make the correct investment choice is potentially narrowing.
Pretty strong start to the year.
Bellfield is right next to Heidelberg West/Heights housing commission and closer to Ivanhoe. There are a couple of houses in Bellfield coming up for auction in the next few weeks there, they will probably go similarly for 100+k above reserve too.
I know FOMO is a bad reason to do anything but is the tail of this boom never ending?! Perhaps too early to tell.

What sort of realistic impact will a potential rare rise have on overall property prices?