Banking Royal Commission results

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Ronald86, 1st Feb, 2019.

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  1. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That's the simple part to understand Deck ,booms in real estate can only happen in free economies not sure about Russia or Nth Korea and most statistics will only tell you whathappened one two or three months ago..

    Well done on the fully paid off ppor as you would have a plan to get too that level and you can look at all rows of data graphs and multicoloured charts and all the macro economic factors --interest rates --money supply --immigration then make your mind up as the cycle moves around the cycle from boom to bust ,problem is most these days have never seen the boom to bust cycle ..I have it several times and if the UK BREXIT or China or Trump US gets a serious attack of nerves which could happen overnight Australia could go into a total meltdown if BLUE COLLAR SHORTEN i'm for the people gains control not it will worry me one percent ..
    There is a quote by a famous English writer who spent time in the slammer for being who he was and it goes like this..
    We are all in the gutter of life only some just keep looking ""UP""at the stars ..btw I started in the gutter ..
     
  2. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Any country can go into total meltdown anytime. People never expected China to slow down. The next miracle it is they shouted. They also never expected the US recession.

    The point is, there is no point in living in fear. A meltdown can come any time and blindside even the smartest people. I would personally just leave in today with a reasonable plan of survival if anything does happen.

    There are people here who lived through 18% interest rates, through the recession and wars. World still goes around, life still goes on.
     
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  3. Islay

    Islay Well-Known Member

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    I know exactly where you are coming from @willair. They were not the good old days, people were judged very harshly and it was ok to do that. Made us pretty determined though didn't it!
     
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  4. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    i've been brought up by my parents to be this frugal. it's not easy being a poor kid. but when you make money as a grown up you have the temptation to spend it. fortunately my frugal habits stuck with me.

    the only thing i can't get rid of, is my annual european holiday. although i'm not saving for anything anymore anyway, i already have my own home.

    My principle has always been:
    Just because you can afford to buy something, doesn't mean you should.
    (Otherwise I would be driving a Porsche by now.)
     
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  5. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    If you look at countries that go into recession , the writing was on the wall for years leading up to the actual event , but no one wanted to see it .The facts were there but no one wanted to listen
    That includes the politicians that were not interested in slowing things down a bit .
    Ireland was a good example of the government of the day too afraid of slowing down the construction industry and the subsequent job losses, and very poor supervision of the financial services industry(sound familiar), many elected MPs also had their fingers in the pie and more concerned with winning the next election that dealing with the issues.
    There was plenty of warning in the years leading up to the collapse, and that was in high levels within the banks and government , but many did not want to listen .
    The central bank knew many properties were overvalued, years before the collapse, but were to afraid to put a number on it.
    Senior bank officials knew that the central bank stress tests on banks was not stressful enough.
    As it turned out world events caught up with the "soft landing" and it turned into a very large thump.
     
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  6. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    When I first read this paragraph, I thought you were talking about Bill Shorten becoming our next Prime Minister ;).

    IMHO, a very accurate prediction :D.
     
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  7. MC1

    MC1 Well-Known Member

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    Hayne is an old scrooge that should have been in a retirement home years ago. He's out of touch and that's being polite
     
  8. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I love the frugal life! It teaches you to be grateful for the small things and to truly appreciate the big things on the rare occasions you save up yourself, and buy them.

    Shameless plug but, who here reads Mr Money Moustache? (In other words, anyone else on PChat also a 'Moustacian' like myself?).

    I am all about moving towards FIRE status in my life so investment is a big part of that but so is frugality and semi-delayed gratification in life.

    This link could well change your life!
    mrmoneymustache.com
     
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  9. jazzsidana

    jazzsidana Well-Known Member

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    The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government .. :)
     
  10. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    I don't own any guns...
     
  11. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't read too much into Hayne's snub of Frydenberg, I think he's just a straight shooter with no tolerance for guff like photo opportunities. If anything, he may have been concerned that his report and recommendations will not be seen as being tough/anti-banking enough by some sectors and doesn't want to give room for any perception of cosiness with the government.

    Hayne sounds like a pragmatist with a good background in commercial law, with an unremarkable record on the bench in this area. Just who is the banking royal commissioner Justice Kenneth Hayne?

    The hearings gave the banks the shellacking they deserve in most instances. That doesn't mean that the recommendations will turn the finance world upside down. I don't see Hayne as a bleeding heart anti-business type that believes big companies have a responsibility to treat customers like children, which is the response many in the media are anticipating.

    I hold out hope that sensible, measured recommendations that support the ability of businesses, consumers and banks to transact productively will arise. I would have to say that broker commissions do look unlikely to survive though.
     
  12. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Extreme sensationalism alert ...

    Martin North on Twitter

    It’s the 60 minutes reporting style I can’t stand. I think it got worse after they axed A Current Affair.

    Unlikely to be balanced coverage.
     
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  13. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    Martin North at it again, flat out trying to promote a house price crash and recession. Though he often presents some good data analysis, his interpretations area always highly bearish and it is clear that nothing would make him happier than a big downturn.

    He will no doubt be banging on about his fuzzy and arbitrarily defined "mortgage stress" statistic as usual, which he conveniently set at a marginal threshold that saw the rate double in the last year, despite no material increase in mortgage defaults over the same time period...

    Nowadays he has strayed far outside his area of expertise to also be an expert on engineering and construction standards it seems. Poor form 60 Minutes for giving him the platform again and scaring three bejeezus out of average Joe...
     
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  14. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ort-more-drama-for-banks-20190201-p50v3m.html

    "There’s a lot of money riding on what is contained in Kenneth Hayne’s reportinto financial services - particularly for investors who have short sold the shares of the big four banks. And there are plenty of them."

    "Over the last three months of 2018 the value of investments in bank shorts has risen to $5.3 billion - almost double what it was in September and about 50 per cent higher than the five-year average."

    "Leading the pack of four as the most shorted is the Commonwealth Bank, according to a Macquarie Capital report on bank shorting. National Australia Bank is the smallest volume of short selling."
     
    Last edited: 3rd Feb, 2019
  15. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    'Mortgage Stress' is an misleading concept to my mind as it's based on percentages (30% from memory means under stress).
    Would I be under any kind of mortgage stress if say i earn 100k a year and pay 35% = 35K (mortgage stress zone) leaving me with 65K a year to live on.
     
  16. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    No you would not but just like "poverty line", (another arbitrary income-related percentage), it sounds good in a headline.
     
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  17. Deck

    Deck Well-Known Member

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    I have been quite critical of him last year as I thought he was milking the topic but after these last few months he could be right.

    Does anyone know how the comprehensive credit reporting (that is going to be implemented in full this July) is going to affect credit ? I am sure it s going to reduce it even more but will it be material IYO ?
     
  18. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    What about the other 80-85% of the workforce that earn significantly less than that.
    Whats the current median wage for people living in Sydney.
     
  19. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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  20. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    Average wage in OZ is around 82K so 30% is around 25K leaving most with 57K after mortgage payments. Hope that answers your question