VIC Ballarat Tip: The Capital of Western Victoria

Unfortunately I don't have access to the actual reports. The graph was from this article - How Have Dwelling Values Shifted Across The Regional Areas Of Australia?

Their more recent articles don't cover Ballarat .

 

Hey guys,

Specific to Ballarat, can anyone recommend any conveyancers and property managers for IPs in the wider Ballarat area?

Thanks!

 

For privacy purpose, please send me a PM.

 

Here we go:



The Highs And Lows: Where Have Dwelling Values Shown the Largest Gains and Biggest Falls Over the Past Year

"The list of the top 50 regions for value growth over the past year is very much dominated by regional areas of Victoria and Tasmanian regions. The list also has a strong slant toward regional areas rather than capital cities. This reflects the fact that as value growth conditions have weakened nationally, the slowdown has been much more rapid across the capital city markets."

 

Thanks, @Toon

I’m very surprised to see that holiday accommodation area like Baw Baw has seen 12.6% growth over the last 12 months. That’s even higher than growth in Geelong and Ballarat. I’m wondering if some high-end development projects lifted up the median value.

 

Yes, Megan Bourke for Property Management.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/megan-bourke-651a6614a/

For conveyancing you don't have to use someone "local".

 

Sky’s the limit for 2019, the year of the Ballarat building boom

"For Ballarat, 2019 will be a year of unprecedented construction and investment.

With more than a billion dollars invested in the region’s projects for 2019 – across transport, health, and energy – there are concerns about workforce capability.

Committee For Ballarat CEO Melanie Robertson said Ballarat was looking down the barrel of a “skills shortage” which will mean builds come at a premium, magnified by a population increase “ahead of all predictions”.

“Due to population growth, there’s additional construction of housing developments. That’s going to require a significant workforce as well, if you’re looking at what’s being sold and subdivided out to the west of Ballarat,” she said.

“We want to have a look at that from a glass half full approach. The population growth is tremendous for youth career pathways, and the range of skills which will come into and be retained in the region.”"
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Thanks Koko, this is exactly what I was looking for

 

No worries, @daKing Always glad to see my contribution to the community helps.

 

Are all these developments factored in current prices?

 

I couldn't say if they're fully factored in, but the population is continuing to rise at a higher than average rate with no signs yet of slowing.

"“I think Ballarat over the next three to five years will be an extremely busy city with a large contingent of construction workers and associated service providers wanting to find accommodation in Ballarat for the duration of their work programs.”

Ballarat’s rental vacancy rate hit a record low of 0.7 per cent in November, with the December rate expected to be released in coming weeks.

But Ballarat Real Estate general manager Allister Morrison said many investors were buying in Ballarat with the intention of being a ‘traditional’ landlord.

“It will be interesting closer to end of January when university students start looking for places to see how low the rental vacancy goes.

“I think what is driving it (the low rate) is quite a number of landlords may have sold property because of the strength of the market in terms of sales and perhaps those properties have been purchased by owner occupiers. Also Ballarat is growing population wise.”"

Is increasing short-term accommodation impacting the rental market?​

 

Victoria’s regional property markets to star in 2019 - realestate.com.au

"The housing markets in Shepparton, Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bairnsdale and Bendigo “all look promising” this year, according to research firm Propertyology.

Boosting regional Victoria’s fortunes are strengthening economies and job markets, increasing migration, and affordable housing.

He said Victoria’s best buying opportunities “for the foreseeable future” would be in regional cities and towns, singling out Shepparton, Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bairnsdale and Bendigo.

Years of economic strength — driven by agricultural, manufacturing and tourism industries — had instilled confidence in regional buyers, while affordable housing and an influx of new residents from the city and interstate had also boosted the markets.

Another property data firm, CoreLogic, has painted regional Victoria as a shining light of 2018, with strong gains recorded in Latrobe-Gippsland region (up 8.7 per cent), Ballarat (8.3 per cent), Geelong (8.2 per cent) and Bendigo (4.5 per cent)."



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I just read that article myself and was gonna post it!

 

Wow, it’s great to see Ballarat growth surpasses Geelong’s one this time. The prospect is good, but let’s see how far it will go. Personally, I’d say it’d be towards the end of 2020, the market will become stagnant for Ballarat. I might be speculating.

 

If it keeps rising through 2020, I won't be complaining

 

Local signs are strong (rental vacancy rate, jobs, investment, pop growth, surging specific areas), certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Ballarat continue to perform well for the next few years (investors chasing growth at the tail, credit squeeze less of an impact at lower multiples, good local fundamentals), and certain areas booming. I do worry more about a material change in the Macro environment, which are always hard to predict. Balance seems to be tipping negative though. If that eventuates in full even if Ballarat is a top performer it could just mean less losses rather than no losses.

Also (a bit aside, but connected) if the Melbourne correction (normal, cyclical for an overheated market at this point) turns into a crash, or worse (crash with a long drawn out downturn when entering into a wider recession), you'll see a reverse ripple effect alongside any macro impacts. Arguably Ballarat is riding a bit of a lagged ripple from Melbourne now, I'm expecting a slowdown in growth in CY19/20. Be interesting to see long term series differentiating the % price disparity between Ballarat and Melbourne.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Australia dip into a recession in / by end 2020 or 2021 (though often even when you see it coming these things have a lag and can take longer to unwind than expected often). Several areas and Industries have been there for some time, and without population growth it would have happened several times. Melbourne and Sydney construction has been a big prop to the Aus Economy / employment.

It's (property and the wider economy) not at the levels and reliance of of Ireland, far from it, and there are different factors (control of currency being a major one), so I don't expect a a economy wide crash / depression solely due to property (Aus Gov debt levels leave a huge amount of powder dry as well, despite what you might read the in papers) but long overdue of a few years of correction more widely. With housing having led growth for a while it would be first to the plate for a hit one would expect.

Sentiment has a way of snowballing and that has certainly turned negative for property, but not despairing, and not reflected with the wider economy despite rumblings on debt and consumption getting louder (as well and Us-China relations and the China slowdown). Combine this downturn into the early stages of a recession and real doom and gloom arises though, usually self-fulfilling and over-correcting. Households are the elephant in the room, it doesn't take much of a negative wealth effect, sentiment and reduced spending to drag on growth. Even if there are decent core fundamentals (personal debt levels aside). You'll see a big dip in immigration then as well if unemployment rises, for a doubly whammy. (Australia does share this with Ireland, a chunk of GDP growth based on population growth).

Anyway, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. At any point in time there are always ways to interoperate things positively and negatively, and you'll always find a doomsayer somewhere.

That turned into an off topic meander!

Even in the current environment I'm pretty bullish on Ballarat for the next couple of years until the above pans out, beyond that could go either way. Logic tells me to expect a slowdown in growth, but still growth, gut tells me we could see a surge, especially in a few localised areas, before a drop. The general risk environment is a bit much for me though in Aus, I'm holding powder for the next few years, prepared for a 20% drop (but hoping not, and not really expecting it). Still looking of course, just narrower criteria, I'd only go into an area I'd picked for growth with a good reno opportunity to guarantee short term value adding.

To be honest haven't gone into enough depth in the wider economy to really firm up my thinking, more touching the surface out of habit and interest, so most of the above is (informed) intuition. Property is a relatively easy investment decision if positively geared, buying and holding for long term with some paper gains on the table already, as long as you don't have a crystal ball to predict a true wipeout (see - Ireland, US) to jump early. Next investment is the interesting part. I'm always caught between logic, sentiment, gut and having a bearish tinge since living through the Irish boom and bust.

 

Ballarat to be shielded from 2019 property slump hitting metro homes

'While Melbourne is facing a down turn in house prices for 2019, analysts are saying Ballarat’s property market will buck the national trend and escape the downturn.

Outside Melbourne, the situation is much brighter with Moody's expecting house value increases in Ballarat (6.7 per cent), Bendigo (5.4 per cent), Geelong (7.2 per cent) and Shepparton (4.6 per cent).

Ray White Ballarat director Trevor Booth said he believed the city’s market “has been probably in many ways undervalued for a long time”.

“Given our median house price is $376,000, it is a very popular and encouraging market for young people, particularly first home buyers, and investors are very much aware of market returns now, at 5 to 5.5 per cent,” he said.

PRD Nationwide Ballarat sales manager Jason Birch said buyers from rural areas west of Melbourne were buying up big in areas like Wallace, with significant interest broadly in suburbs like Soldiers Hill and Wendouree.

“We’re getting a lot of people from the Western Suburbs of Melbourne, areas like Werribee, Hoppers Crossing … selling there, coming up and doing a tree-change,” he said. “They’re moving into the Ballarat residential area and picking up a property, being debt-free, and living in an area with more facilities around them.”'

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Hi all,
I am considering buyig in Ballarat and this post has been a good read, does anyone know a good buyers agent in the area as I am not from around
or is there someone will to help me with inspections at a fee?
thanks

 

@JacM can help you out

 

Rental prices jump across all regional Victorian centres: Domain Rental Report

"Rents are rising across all of Victoria’s major regional centres, a new report has found, and property observers say Melburnians adopting a “try before you buy” approach are partly fuelling the increases.

The latest Domain Rental Report, released this week, found the pace of rent rises in Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Mildura and the Surf Coast had outstripped that of Melbourne in the year to December.

Along with rent hikes, prospective tenants in regional Victoria are met with a fiercely competitive environment where vacancy rates sit at around 1.3 per cent, according to the latest Real Estate Institute of Victoria data...

Median house rents in regional Victorian shires

Region..............Dec-18..........Dec-17.....YoY
Ballarat................$320................$300...........6.7%
Greater Bendigo..$320................$300...........6.7%
Greater Geelong..$380................$360...........5.6%
Greater Shep.......$300................$295...........1.7%
Latrobe................$265................$260...........1.9%
Mildura................$320................$290..........10.3%
Surf Coast............$500................$480...........4.2%
Source: Domain Rental Report, December Quarter 2018

...[In Geelong] “Investors have dried up. I’m not seeing any of them at open for inspections at the moment.”

But it’s a different situation in Ballarat, which has proven to be a hotspot for Melbourne rentvesters with a long-term plan of eventually moving to Ballarat to have children or retire.

Francesca Nicol, director of Biggin and Scott’s Ballarat office, said an upswing in investor activity had coincided with a growing pool of people wanting to rent in Ballarat.

“This year we’ve had a big influx of people who are moving here and would love to buy but find the market really perplexing to read,” Ms Nicol said.

Newcomers tend to rent for a year or two, she said, while they scope out the market and decide on their preferred suburbs.

The rental market has also been bolstered by students, wind farm employees, hospital staff and public servants moving into the shire, Ms Nicol added.

In the year to December, Ballarat’s median rent for a house rose from $300 per week to $320 per week, according to Domain’s report.

But Ms Nicol said high-end properties in the shire could fetch between $720 and $900 a week, with local doctors among those willing to fork out a premium.""​