NSW Badgerys Creek - Long term potential?

With Badgerys Creek Airport set to take off in medium term. I was wondering if anyone is looking into suburbs around that area? With all this "vision" for Greater Western Sydney, any bargains for long term(5 to 10 years) land banking with decent CG prospects?

Luddenham, Orchard Hills, Kemps Creek etc?

 

You would need extremely deep pockets to be able to hold large lots of land out there with the view they would be worth more once the airport is finished. You're talking over 3 million dollars for 5 acres around there, might rent for between $700-$1000 p/week. There are smaller lots too but still unclear what value they would gain if anything with aircraft flying over them.

 

Buy as close to the airport as possible on the side with the best access in the hope that you'll get rezoned business uses. Not as sensitive to noise but provides services to the airport.

 

It's all a bit of a pipe dream really though. There are VAST amounts of land out there. For sure there will be parts of it that will be rezoned for commercial use but how much and how long will it take to happen? I think people are underestimating how long it will take for the area around the airport to really change.

It isn't going to become Mascot in a decade. Could take 20-30 years to really "take off" .

 

Some of those suburbs have already done quite well.

It is an investment strategy of some of the deeper pocket investors use in Sydney (land bank, rely for rezoning over time). Not only in that corridor but all the way down through to Leppington with land rezoning for resi use over time. Its clear the area will change drastically over time with an airport being built there, but it will take a long time to happen.

The take up of the airport will likely take a while from opening date too.

If you can hold onto for a long period, while absorbing heavy cash flow losses, it could be a decent long term buy that will likely outperform standard resi properties in terms of % growth given the upside potential.

 

Yep, a lot of the growth is already priced in. I grew up out there, prices have tripled since the mid 2000's while most of Sydney has doubled.

 

Sydney Airport is searching for a new chief executive after announcing that Kerrie Mather would be retiring after 15 years in the job. Mather presided over the airport’s privatisation in 2002, as well as various controversial expansion plans – which pegged the airport against local councils – and she has been central to the ongoing consultation with the Government over the new Western Sydney Airport.

..... the timing of Mather’s retirement does raise an eyebrow – the airport has until next month to accept or reject the Government’s formal offer for the company to build and operate Sydney’s second airport. Given that planning and consultation has lasted almost three years, it seems odd that Mather would choose to retire now, right before the official decision is made.

Sydney Airport's chief executive to retire

 

It's not hard to pick where the industrial component will be ie main road access (rail access won't be as important unless it is a freight line to the new intermodal terminal at Liverpool. Passenger demand for rail won't happen from day 1 as the airport is aimed at freight in the short term not travel. Logistics companies (Toll, Star Express etc focus on road) will be seeking 1ha or more in most instances.

Finding a replacement to head up the airport will take 6-12 months, so it's not an immediate need.

 

Looks like Luddenham, Orange Hills and towards Erskine Park seems to have been ear marked/proposed.
Source: http://westernsydneyairport.gov.au/resources/deis/files/2015/25-volume-2-chapter-21.pdf

 

Best to form a syndicate and buy like 100 acres or something and hang on tight.

 

I don't see Sydney Airport taking on the project in a hurry without the government committing a lot of money.
They will definitely drag their heels, spending $B's too compete with yourself doesn't make a lot of financial sense.

It'll be a struggle for others to compete too.

 

Apparently stage 1 is set for completion mid-2020's. Almost 10 years, plus 5 more years after it becomes operational to really take off. Lonnnnnnggggg term project.