Australia's 2022 federal election. Predictions on winners and reasons why

A bit early but an interesting topic given all that's happened/happening in Australia atm.

1. Will the libs retain power or the ALP seize power on the day.?

2. What will a win by either party mean for our real estate markets in general.

3. Who do you want to see win?

Predictions. Opinions. Reasons.

 

If they put together a half decent performance - which I don't feel confident that Albanese can do - then Labor would be a certain. Given the current Labor leadership ... it's anyone's guess.

Scotty et al has done an awful job on so many fronts in recent times - bushfires, Covid (bagging the States), renewable transition, sexual attack allegations, unemployment pay rises, water security, trade with China etc ... but it will take more than the opposition limp lettuce leaf to unseat him, and therefore the LNP.

Reckon Plibersek would give him a run for his money tho.

 

I honestly don't follow those issues close enough or politics in general to have an informed opinion on them. But assuming that's the case, why wouldn't the libs just lose the election and ALP take over? Its hard to believe that poor leadership alone could cost the ALP the win.

 

Prefer Albo over Bill

Not convinced about her , but Penny Wong is a consistent performer . Sad she's in the senate and a couple of commentators say she's happy to stay there .

The one issue that will eventually loose the liberals an election is their total inaction on climate change , and perception that they are being lead by the right wing / fox-twats / NP on this issue .

I talk to people all the time who are economically conservative , but see the need for action on climate change .

Cliff

 

I'll happily vote for the guy that doesn't bend the knee thank you very much.

 

I don't think any of them will be doing that .

China has shown her true colours in the last year and I think we will see a very united front locally and internationally .

Cliff

 

Has the ALP learnt their lesson from the unlosable May 2019 elections that they lost so spectacularly?

 

Great question.

Have they?

 

You know my answer and I believe I know yours

 

Well at least the timing is right. Last time they tried to do it WELL AFTER the peak of the boom. By then the average Joe didn't give a crap anymore. They only complain when things are bad, but when there's a small window of opportunity to save a deposit and get your #$%@ together? Nope, not a peep.

So yeah at least now the election should coincide with a boom, so the timing is much better.

However it's still not going to help given how successfully the incumbent has managed the coronavirus.

 

And to conservative voters comfortable with technological change the LNP look like luddites in not fully embracing the opportunities and benefits that fast evolving renewable technologies offer.

 

I reckon Shorten will have a crack at Albo and they will both dissolve and look less a chance. Tanya could end up leader. Nobody leads the ALP except factions.

 

Well personally I'd still like to see the Libs win as I can't reconcile my beliefs with the ALPs philosophical framework for decision making and legislating.

I would though like to see the Libs be more engaged with issues on technology and the environment in general. I do believe they are very important.

 

When one looks at the allegations against a cabinet minister and the way the prime minister who is very skilled at deflecting questions by saying the matter was subject to a police investigation .

.As i think the Australian tax paying voting public don't like to see any Ladies have to roll the dice between a police report and their lifetime well paid so called dream job..

Then one only has to look at what happened in WA on the week end ,so just looking at a few items so far apart from Centrelink debts ..

Myself i think the same will happen to morrison and labor may this time win,but anything can happen between now and then..

 

I didn't see labour loose the last election until they did.
That said, I'm fairly confident Libs will take this one. Sure there has been bad publicity but I'd wager on most voters having a short memory and simply asking themselves 'whats in it for me personally'.
Ideology takes a second row seat for most (not all) people in a lollie scramble.

With the tumoil of the last year does the average punter even have an appetite for rolling the dice on an unknown?

 

I don’t know. The Libs haven’t exactly done a splendid job but will the ALP offer up anything better? It’s way too early to call. Need to wait until closer to the election to make a proper call.

 

Personally I think that Libs will get back in , but its not a certainty . The issues that are dominating debate at the moment ( while not saying they're not important ) are of more interest to the Journo's and Pollies than they are to the majority of the voting public .

We are still in a world wide crisis and Scomo has been come across as a steady hand in that time of crisis . So far the incumbents have won in Aussie elections .

But they are reliant on the electorate differentiating between federal and state .

Cliff

 

It's anyone's guess who'll win but strong leadership during the covid crisis has worked for all incumbent government's so far....the most spectacular example of this is WA. On that basis alone the Libs might have enough to get back in.

Scotty and the feds shut up and took medical advice early (we declared it a pandemic before the WHO and closed our borders) , they also were generous in the stimulus and we're coming out of this in incredible shape. Our response was by no means perfect , but the proof is in the pudding.

The gender problems the government is having now are also rife in the Labor camp as well so if this does become an issue it's more of a system/cultural change that needs to happen rather than a political one.

On the other hand....climate change....FFS the Conservatives need to embrace it and get on with the job. The energy markets are already starting to do it for them, but some top down support would be good. It's not just a hippie green thing...renewables are big business - we need to be on the front foot here before the ship sails.

If Scotty come out a month from now and said look...we were wrong. This is our plan for a green Australia , I reckon they have it in the bag.

If they don't it's still anyone's election to win.

I am a swinging voter normally.

 

I'll put $2 on the redheaded xenophobe from Qld and the rotund mining magnate as her running partner

 

I was right