Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Shadow, 23rd Jun, 2015.

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  1. Shadow

    Shadow Well-Known Member

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    To celebrate the opening of PropertyChat, I thought I'd post this little chart that illustrates just how badly the property bears have failed over the past decade or so.

    Clearly the investors on Somersoft (and now PropertyChat) were miles ahead of the housing bears in successfully calling the direction of the Australian housing market (and building lots of wealth in the process).

    Enjoy!

    [​IMG]
     
    Shadow, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #1
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  2. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    Have printed it and on my desk
     
    Big Will, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #2
  3. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Is Steve Keen still around?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Jun, 2019
    Azazel, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #3
  4. Arashi87

    Arashi87 Well-Known Member

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    Wheres phillip soos
     
    Arashi87, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #4
  5. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    He is still wiping his tears for selling his apartment for 500Kish in Surry Hills. Median for a 2 bedder is 900K now!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Jun, 2019
    devank, 23rd Jun, 2015
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  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Lets not get carried away...there are many markets..some will drop by more than 30% ( technical crash)....just have a look at mining towns.

    Some part of Sydney are heading this way...thought NOT ALL of Sydney..

     
    sash, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #6
  7. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    Keen was right. The market crashed! It's just no body remembered to tell all of the purchasers of Sydney real estate.
     
    Steven Ryan, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #7
  8. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Shadow

    I still liked the one documenting where certain people bought and sold properties .

    Could you dig that one out and post it for posterity .

    Cliff
     
    See Change, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #8
  9. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

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    I am far from a property bear, but the heat in some markets is quite staggering! It's easy to get caught up in the excitement of that HUGE rising tide lifting all boats and everyone is watching thier equity grow and it's gooooood.
     
    Natedog, 23rd Jun, 2015
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  10. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

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    And then when the tide goes out it's baaaaaaad........
     
    Natedog, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #10
  11. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

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    OR.....due to demand for our real estate that has now become a global commodity, and not just a shelter for a local, we could see prices get even higher and higher as our little capital cities mimick other global high populations cities into the future as they struggle to cope with population growth.
     
    Natedog, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #11
  12. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    What's his name. I'd be happy to do this:)
     
    jaybean, 23rd Jun, 2015
    #12
  13. Shadow

    Shadow Well-Known Member

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    This one? :)

    [​IMG]
     
    Shadow, 24th Jun, 2015
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  14. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    That one :cool:

    Cliff
     
    See Change, 24th Jun, 2015
    #14
  15. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    I don't think any of the long term somersoft members have advised buying in Sydney for a while . Most have been happy to watch from the sidelines with some ( including myself and skater ) selling some properties to pay down debt while still holding the majority of our Sydney based portfolio's .

    Cliff
     
    See Change, 24th Jun, 2015
    #15
  16. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    My view is that the peak is not far away.

    Tightening of lending practices (for investors), rising prices - many folks are going to run out of servicability etc soon.

    Without some drastic rapid interest rate risess (I don't see that happening given the economic situation currently) there won't be a mad panic for folks to offload properties they can't service the loans for.

    I suspect the result will be a flattening of the market (again), with a number of years of little to no growth until wages catch up...maybe 5 years.
     
    Bayview, 24th Jun, 2015
    #16
  17. peastman

    peastman Well-Known Member

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    So in other words, a normal cycle.
     
    peastman, 24th Jun, 2015
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  18. weejimmy

    weejimmy Well-Known Member

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    If that median liner scale graph is anything to go by soon houses will double every year. It's crazy to see graphs like that. And ones that go back 50 years plus and for people to say now. Today . Is the peak. Like this is the worst position we have been in, in the last 50 years , or 100 or whatever.
    Never mind world wars or GFC etc. this is the time it's going to crash...

    If I could I would still buy in Sydney. You may have to sit on it or a while but sooner or latter it will go gangbusters again and again and again.
     
    weejimmy, 24th Jun, 2015
    #18
  19. Shadow

    Shadow Well-Known Member

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    The chart shows prices roughly doubling over the decade from 2005 to 2015 (from $500K to almost $1M).

    It shows prices a bit more than doubling over the decade from 1995 to 2005 (from $200K to $500K).

    And it shows prices roughly doubling over the decade from 1985 to 1995 (from $100K to $200K).

    So over the past three decades, prices have roughly doubled every ten years, but with the middle decade being a bit faster.

    There's no indication that it will ever speed up to a doubling every year.
     
    Shadow, 24th Jun, 2015
    #19
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  20. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

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    I agree, it would not be the experienced longer term investors that would be fuelling the Sydney boom right now, it would be the newbies who fear missing out and have not seen a down time before. The cyclical nature of the property market "relies" on newbie "property always goes up" money to flow in. Couple that with fierce competition from owner occupiers scared of being priced out of thier desired area fuelled with record low interest rates and BOOM it goes.
     
    Natedog, 24th Jun, 2015
    #20
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