Australian online retail sales have suddenly plunged

• Australian online sales tumbled in February, according to analysis of transactions processed by the NAB.
• The monthly decline was the sharpest since the data series began in early 2016. The annual growth pace was also the weakest on record.
• Spending fell across all categories and states during the month, as well as domestic and overseas online retailers.
• The NAB says “it appears that broader weakness in retail is flowing through to online”.
• Australia’s February retail sales report will be released on Wednesday, April 3.

In unsettling news, Australian online retail sales have suddenly plunged

 

This can't be good news on any level!!

Online retail sales data is almost instantaneous (just 4 weeks lag) and if anything it's the beginning of more bad news to follow (general retail, B2B and eventually jobs) in months to follow.

 

Keep in mind the graph is showing % change (not absolute activity). Would be good to be able to see a comparison of actual spending Feb 18 to Feb 19.

 

Feb 19 is 3.4% lower than Feb 18. A negative number in online terms for Australia is real bad considering online retail growth globally has been 10-15% year on year even in the worst times.

 

Can we expect online sales growth to continue at infinitum? Is it a Ponzi scheme, limited by the availability of cheap credit or by the depth of our pockets?

When retail went 7 Day trading it too expanded, have we come to the end of the elastic band?

 

Mate, online sales had barely reached just 5% of our total retail spend despite being an advanced economy. We are way behind US, UK and other OECD countries.

Where Australia currently is in terms of its share, US online sales were growing at 20%+ year on year.

It has to be some level of stupidity to somehow argue that online sale decline may be a good thing because it was going too far!!

 

@standtall - I'm drawing on the fact that Australians are generally early adopters of technology. We jumped on the online band wagon so saw massive growth, it might just be a glitch without me having gone back over retail figures over the past few years. I have reduced my online spend preferring to use it as a comparative tool rather than the outlet (unless it's justified).

We have done the same in mobile markets where we have more than one sim per phone and device (yes we do have multiple devices) - growth is spurred by changes in technology.

 

NAB online sales index does have a critical flaw, does not account for Afterpay purchases

 

Another day, another story.

Aussie retailers bounces back with better than expected sales

Australian retailers performed better than expected in February, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show, with food, clothing and household goods sales all helping the sector bounce back from a poor start to the year.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...tter-than-expected-sales-20190403-p51a8s.html

 

Retailers seem to be fighting back. I have actually spent more $$ in-store nowadays as they are having big stock clear outs. Everywhere. Not sure why, it's not even EOFY yet. Maybe poor sales? Seems like some nice stores are shutting too.

A better indicator for retail/economy might be new car sales which were down YTD in march IIRC

 

Good article in the local paper the other day regarding the budget, and from someone in small business.
They wanted the government to do something to get people to start spending more money.
Rather ironic that for many years they were complaining that labour costs was holding them back .
Now they are complaining that conditions have deteriorated as reasonable wage growth has stopped since about 2012/2013 and customers have closed their wallets and purses
Money generally goes around in circles as people get paid more each year and their mortgages get smaller, the local economy continues to grow as they have more disposable income.
Unfortunately, the current government was quite efficient at dealing with labour costs but very inefficient at doing anything about one of the biggest costs for many income earners.
Until they can deal with that issue , household spending is going to remain low, which in turn has an effect on wages growth and ultra low interest rates..
Having interest rates set at the right level , is like an insurance policy for when things go wrong.

 

Sorry about that folks, I haven't been able to get to the mall for a couple of months, promise I will spend and spend big next month...
My husband always said I couldn't live further than 50kms from David Jones and they would go broke without me shopping there ...

 

I would like to see numbers on how many businesses started trading on weekends after the penalty rate cuts, and how many dropped prices to reflect cheaper costs of doing business . I’m guessing very few, the fact is businesses were open on weekends despite penalty rates because it was profitable to do so.

 

I would hardly call data from 1 source alarming.
How is retail performing in comparison?
What about all other lenders?
As suggest what about new tech such as afterpay and it’s effect?

And if you look at the graph, what was the reason for the massive spike in 2018 which makes the trend look for worse in comparison. My guess is all the bitcoin billionaires went on shopping sprees buying Lambos online.

 

Hard to say, but this isn't really ideal...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/wor...-penalty-rates-reduction-20190422-p51g6n.html

 

My hunch (and I'm open to be corrected) is that in a typical suburban cafe-type business the take per hour is significantly more on weekends than midweek and there's little justification for a surcharge.

 

I would guess that if penalty rates were to go completely that the surcharge would remain in a table fee or some such charge, due to how busy the business is on those days and other busy times

 

Maybe not as many people are using NAB merchant facilities?

Maybe Afterpay / Zip taking a large share of online processing away from traditional banks.

 

Please note. Penalty rates were not abolished . Only a tiny tiny tiny reduction.
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