Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Australian housing market facing 'bloodbath' collapse: economists

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Beyond Wealth, 22nd Jun, 2015.

  1. Beyond Wealth

    Beyond Wealth Active Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    43
    Location:
    Vic
    Thoughts? http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...bath-collapse-economists-20150622-ghu8a6.html
    Any prediction on the results of the upcoming home ownership inquiry?
     
  2. sandyfeet

    sandyfeet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    130
    Location:
    South Coast NSW
    a bloodbath? probably not.

    They will probably conclude that Sydney is overpriced, maybe something about poor FHB. I doubt they will be suggesting we prepare an army for the bloodbath?
     
  3. Daniel007

    Daniel007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    201
    Location:
    Sydney
    who are these experts and let me guess, they liquidated their portfolios 5 years ago when the bubble was about to pop...
     
  4. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,140
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yawn ....
     
    Investig8, Gingin, York and 1 other person like this.
  5. keithj

    keithj Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    14th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    177
    Location:
    Blue Mtns
    The author is Phillip Soos - he's been saying the same thing for many years - almost as long as Keen. It's pretty safe to ignore him.

    The headline should really be - 'Only two of the several hundred economists in Australia think the Housing Market is in a Bubble'
     
    C-mac, Finrod, York and 7 others like this.
  6. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,690
    Location:
    Brisbane..
  7. Beyond Wealth

    Beyond Wealth Active Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    43
    Location:
    Vic
    Agreed. It's rare I read those types of articles all the way through. The home ownership enquiry may be more insightful (maybe). Hopefully it doesn't go the way of the Henry tax review
     
  8. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,140
    Location:
    Sydney
    Actually I did read the article , but there was nothing substantive in it that made me concerned. Main reason I read it was it's in the age which does carry some credence .

    Cliff
     
  9. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,224
    Location:
    NSW
    Agreed Keith. I wrote a blog about this on my website about a month ago. Rather than repeat it here again, I'll just post a link for brevity sake. http://www.propertunity.com.au/is-sydney-in-a-property-bubble/
     
  10. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,458
    Location:
    Sydney & Gold Coast
    "If it bleeds, it leads".

    Motto of the media.

    Me, right now:



    [​IMG]
     
    quintets likes this.
  11. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

    Joined:
    14th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,160
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    Mist ...............

    is slang southern german for stuff that comes out of barn after animals have occupied same for a while............

    ta

    rolf
     
  12. Shadow

    Shadow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    64
    Location:
    Sydney
    There have been a few of these 'bloodbath' calls over the past few years. Here are a few headlines I recall...

    "Armageddon! Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate" - property analyst Jordan Wirsz (Jan 2012)
    "Australian Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up" - Mike Shedlock (March 2012)
    "40% upgraded to 50% bloodbath hit to house prices" - Harry Dent (Feb 2014)

    So far, none of these doomsayers have been successful.
     
    Tekoz likes this.
  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,214
    Location:
    Sydney
    There will be a blood bath but in certain sectors of the Sydney market....:(
     
  14. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,838
    Location:
    Brisbane
    No way will there be a bloodbath. Some areas (mainly speculative areas or those that do not have good fundamentals and have shot up for no reason other than all boats rising with the tide) will be affected more than others...look for blue chips or near blue chips to hold value much better once IR goes up....exactly the same with most other non commodity asset classes eg shares.
     
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,214
    Location:
    Sydney
    Hmmmm....off the plan apartments in Bluechip suburbs......lots of potential pain in my area in the next 3 years. Where people have bought 2 brm units for 750-950...70-80sqm...1-2 garages....settling in the next 6-24 months...

     
    Tekoz likes this.
  16. Arashi87

    Arashi87 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    101
    Location:
    Sydney

    Philip Soos is a researcher at Deakin University’s School of International and Political Studies


    :rolleyes:
     
  17. MarkB

    MarkB Some guy on the internet Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    180
    Location:
    The screen you are reading.
    For those who are inclined -

    The Home Page for the "Inquiry into Home Ownership".

    The Terms of Reference are - The Committee will inquire into and report on:
    • current rates of home ownership;
    • demand and supply drivers in the housing market;
    • the proportion of investment housing relative to owner-occupied housing;
    • the impact of current tax policy at all levels; and
    • opportunities for reform
    The Committee will also give due regard to the aspects of the current Tax White Paper process being conducted by the Government that pertain of housing Australia.

    There are also links on the RHS to -

    Submissions (the only one currently on the site is the one that inspired the advertorial in The Age)
    Media Releases
    Committee Membership

    With regards to the submission by LF economics, I did have a very quick skim read and I joked to Corey in the chat that I thought I was reading Das Kapital there for a while.

    I have also since learned that the authors are associated with an organisation called Prosper Australia, who have this to say about themselves -

    "Prosper Australia is a non government organisation inspired by economic justice. When wealth produced from land – the earth and natural monopolies – is the funding base for government, equality of opportunity becomes possible for all humanity. This concept was developed during the 18th Century era of Classical Economics. The theory was clarified when the self-educated Henry George wrote “Progress and Poverty”. The success of this book and the strength of his oratory prompted a world-wide movement"

    In lay terms - Henry George was a socialist who proposed abolishing all forms of tax save for a tax on land. Effectively, were such a tax to be introduced it would socialise land values.

    I've said a few times that economics is a matter of perspective, and that there are no lies in economics, only different versions of the truth.

    Well this is certainly one of those moments. Now I know they are Georgist (so to speak) I can understand where the authors are coming from (doesn't mean I agree with them).

    It is fringe economics at best.
     
    Last edited: 23rd Jun, 2015
    Beelzebub and willair like this.
  18. S.T

    S.T Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    428
    Location:
    I'm not selling anything
    Took some good info out of that article, housing shortage in QLD and WA.
     
  19. Natedog

    Natedog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    273
    Location:
    Melbourne
    That's the only bit that interested me also!

    Sort of supports why Brisbane yields "on average" are better than what I see in Melbourne currently.
     
    Touristy likes this.
  20. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,690
    Location:
    Brisbane..
    Thanks for the link,makes interesting reading from people that don't have hidden agendas..

    LF Economics (PDF 1371 KB)
     
    Tekoz likes this.