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Australian GPD Growth Slows To Lowest Since 2011

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by 2FAST4U, 2nd Sep, 2015.

  1. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 2nd Sep, 2015
  2. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Here's my; "I told you so!" moment.:p

    I've been saying it for the last 4 years, and then get slammed with "Oh; you're just sooking up because your business is going bad!" comments.

    But my view was and is formed by the various folks I talk to down here on the ground in the various industry small businesses who are not happy, Jan.

    And; I think we've got more to go.

    My prediction is that the $20k small business incentive won't have made a dent.

    We'll see, when the figures come out from the start of that incentive.
     
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  3. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Yep!
    The ABS wrote that “Nominal GDP growth was 1.8% for the 2014-15 financial year”, which was “the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961-62.”

    The other notable result is that despite the call for austerity by the Federal government, gross fixed capital formation (investment) rose by only 0.4%, which was driven entirely by public sector investment spending. Without the contribution of public spending overall, the Australian economy would have been in negative growth territory. Furthermore, real net national disposable income, which is a broader measure of change in national economic well-being fell by 0.9 per cent for the quarter and 1.1 per cent for the 12 months to the June-quarter 2015, which means that Australians are worse off (on average) than in June 2014. This is the ‘income recession’ that economists are now speaking about.
     
  4. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the recession I predicted 3 years ago on SS might just be coming down the pipe :p (yes I know, broken clock, yada yada yada).

    In any case I don't think we've seen the low in economic growth. Mining investment still has a way to fall, residential construction is probably nearing a significant peak, the car manufacturing industry is shutting up in the next year or two, China is continuing to show signs of economic weakness which is likely to impact us. Hopefully the lower AUD can reignite tourism and slow/stop the contraction in the manufacturing sector.
     
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  5. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    What gets me about this is every morning on "Sunrise", Kochie has a segment with Craig James who is an economist with the CBA, and I swear he ramps up the economy 9.5 times out of 10. o_O

    And I'm sitting there, hearing all this and choking on my weetbix, and thinking; "WTF?"

    Same with the job figures; always raving on about how many jobs have been created....where, FFS?

    I don't know many folks hiring - only shedding jobs, or doing a full-time to part-time/casual reshuffle.
     
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  6. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    That's every time I've accidently turned on the TV to Kochie, change the channel! ;)
     
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  7. sumterrence

    sumterrence Well-Known Member

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    I never like the idea of comparing present data to past data that are too far away and draw conclusions, as past data (talking about old data such as 10/20 years old) more or less it only shows what happened at that period of time and what caused it to happen, it can never be seen as a trend and draw conclusion of what will happen in the future, a lot of people like to say "such and such cycle has been happening over and over again" that's probably because the industry hasn't changed much hence the cycle have the potential to repeat itself.

    Looking at Australia economy as a whole, we are now losing the mining boom which have been our prime income source for the last decades and more, and we are now switching to other sectors (doesn't have a choice really) to focus more on technology and migration (I know it's been popular for a long time but there are no signs to show it will slow down like our mining sector).

    Base on the significant difference of our economic fundamental switch from 10/20 years ago, it is not surprise to me that we see growth rates fluctuates and even show low growth rates as it takes time for the economy to absorb and get use to the new trend, once people get used to it there will be more innovations in the different focus area and it will drive the economy again.
     
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  8. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    That's because wages are stagnant which helps stabilise the UE rate a bit. Plus the mining boomers who received huge salaries are being replaced by lower paid service employees like baristas and retail staff.
     
  9. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Migration is not a sector (in the same way mining is), but nevertheless it already has been slowing (though elevated compared with past decades):

    http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/3-implications-of-slower-population.html

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    just a cupla corrections.

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-food-drive-manufacturing-growth-000052691.html
     
  11. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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  12. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Growth and the dollar has more to fall I suspect.
    Whilst I'm not overly bearish, it's absolutely a good time to focus on your job, develop skills, increase productivity etc...just in case it gets really bad ( which I don't think it'll get too bad), you want to be a star performer...plus expect more competition with more skilled immigration.
    This is all not a bad thing; just a 'rebalancing' process as the economists call it...But that rebalancing will cause uncertainty, job losses, volatility etc...But will also present new opportunities such as technologies, sciences etc.
     
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  13. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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  14. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Maybe someone's mind has been poisoned by their State Premier with zero credibility of making right forecasts in their budgeting.
     
  15. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    It's the economy, stu......!

    NSW and Vic are the only economies showing above-trend growth.

    The other areas think their mining bust will reverse.
     
  16. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  17. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Coincidently, both capital cities are at or approaching peak of market, with record stamp duty etc...
    ...what happens if/when that tap gets turned off?
     
    Last edited: 3rd Sep, 2015
  18. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    we're seeing the reports of the already-happened slowdown/stop.

    the reporting of the results always lags what's actually happening. There is a small pickup on some of the gas fields and gold projects, but Fe, Ni, Li, Ta ...even Uranium.... still floundering.
     
  19. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but look at forward estimates from ABS. Capex expenditure hasn't bottomed. Still has a long way to fall.
     
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  20. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall, though, BB.

    the ASX has a long way to fall, too....