Australian economy, housing market and recession forecast for 2020

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 26th Dec, 2019.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-known cafe bum of the East Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    22,667
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Finder's monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey is the largest survey of economists and property experts in Australia. Every December, we ask our panel of over 40 leading economists for their prediction for the Australian economy over the coming year.

    There are the economists' predictions for the Australian economy in 2020.
    RBA 2020 by Jeremy Cabral - Infogram


    - Expectations for the housing market look promising, with 52% of experts expecting house prices to fully recover to above pre-decline levels in 2020

    -76% of experts thought it was unlikely Australia would see a rise in defaults in 2020.

    -experts were asked which would be the most promising city in which to purchase a property in 2020. Brisbane and Melbourne came out on top, sharing 44% of the overall vote.

    Full article
    https://www.finder.com.au/australian-economy-housing-market-and-recession-forecast-for-2020

    My, my how the economists tune has changed. You gotta love em.
     
    kierank likes this.
  2. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    8,410
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    Instead of reading what the “experts” are predicting for the next 12 months, I prefer to read what they said 12 months ago and see how close they were.

    For example, with the ASX:

    Experts say 2019 will be another volatile year for the Australian share market

    A couple of predictions from that article:

    “A failure to end the dispute would lead to the ASX 200 sliding further into the red — beyond its 7 per cent drop in 2018.”​

    “Australian shares are likely to do 'okay' but with returns constrained to around 8 per cent with moderate earnings growth," said AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.”​

    So far this calendar year, VAS has achieved growth of 19.83%. Even my share portfolio has grown 22.63% so far in 2019.

    A slight under-estimation :eek:.

    “He expects the ASX 200 to climb its way back to the 6,000-point threshold by the end of this year.​

    The ASX 2000 is currently 6,794.20; so his prediction was over 13% short.

    I read a lot of Shane’s article and I take notice of a lot of what he writes.

    My take on predictions made by the “experts” is most/all have no idea and, as a “mug” investor, I have even less than them.

    As a long-term B+H investor, short-term predictions are a bit of light, comical reading for me :D.
     
    george costanza, Sackie and albanga like this.
  3. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    1,085
    Location:
    Sydnie NSFW
    No Recession as long as we keep migrants flowing in.
    No plans to stop that inflow at this stage from either side of politics.
     
    Ketsle likes this.
  4. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    1,085
    Location:
    Sydnie NSFW
    In past 5 years I avoided the ASX and instead followed international markets.

    Right now I'm close to +30% 1-year performance through my superfund exposure to International Shares.
     

The shift to the regions has been quite profound with Millennials and Gen X leading the way. It seems affordability, lifestyle, and working from home have been the key drivers from which these generations have been able to take most advantage.