Australian Dollar

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 6th Jul, 2015.

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  1. Xenia

    Xenia Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for all the updates MTR - interesting.
    Financial education and looking at methods of wealth preservation are so important
     
  2. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    For non-traders, the chart suggests that the likely movement for AUD against USD is up......not down.
     
  3. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Its a nice title.
    The issue with 'traders' is that they are so short term focused. They are talking about a "massive" upswing showing moves of about $0.03.
    The AUD/USD has traded between .7019 and .7356 in the last month. Traders are looking for trends...not fundimentals.

    Personally Im not too fussed about what is happening in the next 30days. Hell, I dont even know where I will be in 30days.
    Im focused on the fundamentals. What is really happening in the Australian economy. Personnaly I think we are getting a lot of smoke, a few mirrors and not a lot of real performance. I dont see the current 'strength' of the AUD holding over the next 12months. Predictions of .65c by year end I think are premature at this stage, but certainly a close with a 6 in front of it. If (when) the US raises rates some additional pressure will be placed on the AUD.

    Im worried that there is a lack of business investment going on in Australia. With the mega (mining/oil/gas) projects which will are coming to completion in the next few years, where is the next wave of major capital coming from. Im just not seeing it. I hope I am wrong.

    Other indicators are showing stability, but why? Either I am wrong (is that even possible?), the data hasnt made it through the system as yet, or we just arent getting a full picture.

    Blacky
     
  4. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    absolutely agree. for the AUD a return to USD parity.........or even for the AUD to fall apart at its present level.....would require a fundamental/structural issue.
     
  5. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    Sorry - again read your post blacky..........a sustained move down into the 60s is possible....but I wouldn't bet on it. As I trader, I would say that is a high risk position to take based on its trading chart and would require a wait and see before taking that bet.

    More potential for stability or a swing to the up side is my read.
     
  6. adrian_christian

    adrian_christian Well-Known Member

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    Interesting to see how property forums like PC and SS compare to FX forums in their tone and tribalism... they can get pretty dusty in those dark FX forums, especially the eternal debate on fundamental analysis versus technical analysis.
     
  7. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    I might be wrong, but in general tech annalysis is ok at finding short term trends. it wont tell you anything about where the market is heading in general - just what is happening now.

    Fundamentals look at what is expected to happen in the long term.

    Both will be wrong as much as they are right.

    Blacky
     
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  8. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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  9. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    The Australian dollar has been going vertical for the past four hours in Asia today as the reversal of fortune for the US dollar, which began early this morning, continues and traders react to a break in the Aussies down’trend.
     
  10. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    Redwing......what a beauty. I use to love those big fat trading candles - indicating panic as people get out of their positions because they got their direction wrong (like those expecting the AUD to fall to 60 before another rally) as well as others jumping in to catch the ride up or down.

    On the recent low of the AUD, the MACD was showing the trend could change......and that's what it did.

    The same indicators you use to examine short term trends are the same for long term. You just change the focus of your analysis......which can be seconds/minutes/days/months/years.

    One of my best trading buddies use to say prices can stay overbought or undersold for longer than anyone expects......and that is where a trader gets killed - i.e. by trying to predict the exact END of a bust or the boom cycle....and insisting and holding onto your ideas.

    Fundamentals is just noise. Usually used to try to explain something after it has already happened - be it oil or AUD or gold or anything that carries a value. Technical analysis doesn't need the explanation.
     
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  11. Kai41314

    Kai41314 Well-Known Member

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    I used to expect lower AUD and more rate cuts as many others but somehow now I have a funny feeling that AUD might not hit 65 and there might be no further rate cuts in Australia next year.

     
    Last edited: 22nd Nov, 2015
  12. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    Kai .....it may hit 65. I said the AUD would rally first .....it wouldn't go straight down.....and it did.

    As for 65c. Does anyone question how and why an organisation like Citibank would pick that number. I was curious this afternoon, so I downloaded trading software. I didn't bother trying to doing anything detailed - just some simple fibs at significant highs/lows since the AUD was floated.

    And, lo and behold, around 70c is support at many different time points and 61.8% retrace. My favourite is 75% retrace - which brings to AUD to around 65c (roughly thereabouts as a possible end point).

    For the sake of disclosure - I no longer day trade. The above is just my worthless opinion.
     
    Last edited: 22nd Nov, 2015
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  13. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I guess the US rate hike has already been priced in. It's the future trajectory of rate hikes that will determine next support levels.

    {Note - thread continues here: Australian Dollar 2016}
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Nov, 2017
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