Australian Dollar

I agree with Adrian.
There has been no recent real news to move it from its trading position at present. However, the long term horizon (12months+) there is nothing giving the AUD support. Our economy is lacklustre at best. We are holding onto the news from China hoping they continue to tread water. A strengthening USD won't do them any favours.

When the US start to act on the current confidence it will give their markets a boost (and equally downward pressure on the AUD). My money is still on an AUD:USD with a 6 in front of it at year end and we will break through .65 in 2016.

Blacky

 

Citigroup prediction closer to 60 than 70 next year... Not the only ones thinking this either..

http://www.afr.com/markets/currenci...n_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook

 

The dollar just tumbled half a cent upon hearing the recent news of the CBA lifting rates by 15 basis points- increases the likelihood of the RBA dropping rates next month.

 

No surprises there, once the technical investors play out this trading range, the fundamentals will shift the AUD down as expected, the only question is, how far down? 60c is the next psychological barrier now that it's already pierced 0.69 a couple of times lately.

 

The Aud is being stubborn. There is no real reason for it to still be over .70. It doesnt really matter, as it is a short term rally.

RBA will hold rates next week, and drop in December is my opinion. There is no reason to drop rates and history has shown they prefer to 'wait and see' where possible.

Domestically not much is happening. The focus seems to be on international markets.
Domestic inflation remains low, the house 'bubble' on the east coast (Sydney) seems to be reaching peak so the risks have reduced.

As @adrian_christian mentions above. .70 is not a phycholigical barrier at present. Everyone is focused on .60.

I vote for "Bring it on" (and RBA a rates drop would also be appreciated)

Blacky

 

Fully agree. There is some evidence that the low dollar is spurring non mining investment, and that will help keep the rba steady.

 

The FOMC (US) are gearing up for an interest rate rise in December/January, the AUD is gearing down December/January. No surprises there.

It's down around .7092 now, it was stubborn around the 0.72-0.73 for a while until Yellen's comments in the US yesterday were "gently aggressive", pointing to a tightening soon.

Once it goes under 0.70, it will not go above the trace. Loving it.

 

Remember half of the AUD "weakness" is actually USD strength. The drop against other currencies is only half the headline rate in Oz which exclusively focuses on USD.

I would prefer the dollar to go back up to 80 and above, & 70 Euro.. and for there to be no further interest rate reductions. A weaker currency can boost inflation and would put more upward pressure on interest rates. This could happen if commodities recover. Dont quite know why so many want it to go down unless you're earning a stronger currency.

 

I'm an expat OS earning USD

 

Most people agree with you and want the dollar to go above 80, preferably 90+.

The lower the AUD, the poorer you are. Your property that's worth $500k is now worth $350k on the world stage. A new car, TV, doodad, fuel, imports are all more expensive. Same with o'seas holidays and buying a condo in Miami, Hong Kong or Thailand.

The law of diminishing returns has passed regarding further rate cuts. They don't stimulate the economy at this point when rates are so low. In fact it's a mark of desperation. Low rates knock out a lot of financial business models that need a historically normal base rate to work.

Bond guru Bill Gross said it best on Wednesday:

“The Fed is beginning to recognise that 6 years of zero bound interest rates have negative influences on the real economy — it destroys historical business models essential to capitalism such as pension funds, insurance companies, and the willingness to save money itself.”

You'd think some of our so called 'leading economists' would have learn't something from the failed 'zero interest rate strategies' employed by other central bankers. They've simply painted themselves into a corner and have no idea how to get out.

I can't see any need for a rate cut in November beyond a political gift on behalf of a new PM.

 

Latest update on Aussi $

They are calling an interest rate drop next week, hope so??


Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar fell to 3 week lows against the USD overnight closing at 0.7075 after a weakening gold price and interest around the Reserve Banks next meeting. The AUD was trading above 0.71 for most of the Australian session but with the price of Gold falling for the second day in a row and keeping downward pressure on the AUD and saw it fall below that mark. The soft economic data including the local CPI data out earlier this week has seen speculation increase that the RBA will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year. With little data coming out today the focus will be on overseas markets including the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement coming out around lunchtime today.

 

Australian dollar hits month-low as strong US jobs data ups rate hike bets | theage.com.au

As expected, all the indicators lead one way...0.7023 over the weekend.

 

Australian dollar reached a 3 month high in the last week, 0.66 Euro.
Perception of where its going all depends on what currency you're referencing.

 

I'm referring to the USD/AUD, and have made no references or predictions of any other cross rates.

 

predications are around 65 by end of this year only just 2 months away. It did break through 70 I see we are not too far off this happening again

 

72 was great selling. Problem I was holding far too much USD to begin with and didn't have much to sell.

 

Its trending south and broken 70 barrier again

 

I hope USD is the only one going up.

I hope EUR and GBP cross rates are stable against AUD because I have trips to London and Paris coming up!!!!!!

 

As Flo Rida sings : "It's goin' down for real"

 

i wouldn't start being to upset about the direction of AUS just yet. needs confirmation....but if anyone here trades the forex, this is what i would be looking at.

i didn't have time to draw my own chart.....it's my bed time. i would have liked to add fib to this but generally agree with its this analysis.

for it not happen......means that Australia's economy is far worse than we know at the moment......and I don't believe that to be the case right now. could be wrong but time will tell.

ANALYSIS: AUDUSD - MASSIVE MOVE UP COMING! - AUDUSD TradingView