Australian Dollar 2019

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Karina, 2nd Jan, 2019.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,484
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    There's a reasonably accurate series of patterns that occur which can roughly indicate where the market is likely to head.

    Otherwise known as a compression signal, triangulating trade, breakout trade etc.

    Short signals are ROOTED in fear and are easier to run with, which is why I never go long unless under exceptional circumstances. Going long has an extra set of signals (support line) which in themselves can trigger a sell again.

    Short signals are also good to remember as being for a short period of time, long signals, you need a long time.
    Long signal.jpg Short Signal.jpg
     
    Jello_B likes this.
  2. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    573
    Location:
    NSW
    Breakout !
    Strength of the double bottom I mentioned earlier kicking in.

    aud_usd_breakout.jpeg
     
    MTR and paulF like this.
  3. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    734
    Location:
    Melbourne
    SOULFLY3 and MTR like this.
  4. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    573
    Location:
    NSW
    Oh wow, there is a myriad of courses out there.
    For the record I started with a company called Safety In The Market nearly 20 years ago. They are still going but I got all I needed and have looked into many others since and basically formed my own opinion of what to look for at different times/scenarios.
    Traditionally, the basics of todays charting stem from a few golden oldies such as W.D.Gann, Elliot and Benjamin Graham. Look them up, read them then approach it with some of the newer interpretations.
    Safety in the Market was started by David Bowden who it's claimed was one of the very few who could crack the W.D.Gann code.
    Once you have a handle on analysis, begin by practice trading something, a stock, currency or derivative and se how your forecasting skills develop.

    Or there is also a myriad of pay for systems that spit out signals for you, so its up to you as to which way you go.

    A member here, Alex Straker is also a bit of a guru, Hope this helps.
     
    paulF and SOULFLY3 like this.
  5. wilso8948

    wilso8948 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    157
    Location:
    Newcastle/Mackay
    I couldn't help think of a game I used to play..


    [​IMG]
     
  6. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,484
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    Unconfirmed. You need a second set of signals for a long.
     
  7. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,484
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    It's all patterns.

    I did the Platinum Pursuits course about 12 years ago now and his (her) tech was incredible.

    I have modified it further for more reliable signals - especially going long which was the cause of a lot of my stop-outs early on.
     
    paulF likes this.
  8. kitdoctor

    kitdoctor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    151
    Location:
    Darwin
    Referring to the first chart I posted the contracting triangle is formed by the upper trend line passing through points (B) and (D) where point (D) occurs at some point in the future and the lower trend line passing through (A) and (C). You can see how the chart pattern is being confined to this triangle pattern where the trend lines are the sides of the triangle.

    Within this larger pattern a smaller pattern is ongoing which is labelled A-B-C. For the larger pattern to remain acceptable B cannot break through the trend line (A) - (C). As this is what has occurred the assumed larger pattern needs to be corrected. A revised chart is attached. AUS$ to US$ exchange rate and PM changes and revised forecast January 2019.png
     
  9. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,771
    Location:
    ..Sunny Brisbane...
  10. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    16,319
    Location:
    My World
    willair and SOULFLY3 like this.
  11. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,771
    Location:
    ..Sunny Brisbane...
    At this point anything is possible , and no one knows what will happen..The ones that write about what will happen most times get it wrong a good lesson for all the politicians as there has been no massive swings against the aussie$$$ overnight..
     
  12. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    11th Jan, 2017
    Posts:
    139
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I got this 60 from Jan, how is it now?
    Anyone update please as the year we hit 60 in the past was the best year for my ip
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    16,319
    Location:
    My World

    No idea if it will hit 60. But it certainly seems to be trending south.
     
  14. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    844
    Location:
    N.S.W , W.A
    It may have been written in yesterdays AFR , but they were thinking there might be some good falls if the RBA was to drop interest rates.
    Its a pretty big statement to send about consumer confidence ,and for all our wealth, much of it is only on paper and tied up in residential property.
     
  15. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,054
    Location:
    Bali
    Generally the currency is fairly closely tied to official interest rates. So yeah, a drop in the IR will generally trigger a drop in the AUD
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    16,319
    Location:
    My World

    But talk is interest rates will rise???
     
  17. aushousingcrash

    aushousingcrash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    72
    Location:
    RenterOfMelbourne
    Reserve Bank to hold until 2020 according to Bill Mitchell Westpac on Froday the most accurate of all forecasters the past 5-6years. Mortgage rates may rise as result of sustained increased funding costs (See 3M BBSW)

    A recent tweet thread from a Macro guy on this topic. Alex on Twitter
     
    MTR likes this.
  18. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    16,319
    Location:
    My World
    Ok. Thanks. Some good news for a change
     
  19. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,054
    Location:
    Bali
    Talk by who? Market doesn’t have any rate rises prices in.
    Though, as poster above states, mortgage rates are likely to increase independently of the RBA due to increased funding costs.

    Even if RBA moves down. Don’t hold your breath expecting to see the decrease in your mortgage rates.

    Blacky
     
    C-mac likes this.
  20. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,050
    Location:
    Sydney
    ^^^ This.

    And this expectation - that if the RBA holds, lenders will still increment consumer mortgage rates up, and should RBA increase rates; lenders will still increment consumer rates up (so, a damned if they hold, damned if they increase); could be another black swan event for mortgage holders unfortunately. I am a glass half full kinda guy on most days, but in 12 years of property investing Ive never seen such a frightening near-term outlook of variables:

    - Labor in and investor-friendly policies crushed
    - Apartment oversupply in 6 of 8 cap cities (Adding that Opal tower causing anti-apartment market sentiment)
    - Chinese buyers (mostly) out
    - Indian/Malay/Singaporeans not increasing enough to come near replacing Chinese buyer interest
    - Tighter lending restrictions affecting both OO an INV buyer-types
    - Flatlining wages growth and casualisation/gig-economy of workforce not properly reflected in our 'amazing official unemployment rate'
    - Distorted measurement / view of nominal inflation (inflation is being pushed into areas of consumers lives that are not included in the official measurement)
    - Trickle down of China/US/Global trade issues
    - Interest rates as above

    Did I miss any others?

    Some PLEASE tell me where the silver lining is, I just don't see it. Most property markets in my humble speculative opinion based on a scan of the above undeniable factors; are in for negative to flat (at best) results over the medium term (next 3-8 years).

    With all of this in mind, we need to stop ourselves and ask: is AU property REALLY the best asset class in the medium term for investing?

    Maybe if the fall becomes a bloodbath (50%+ drop peak to trough); then yield-based plays will emerge?
     
    namrata, MTR and Blueskies like this.