Australian Dollar 2019

There's a reasonably accurate series of patterns that occur which can roughly indicate where the market is likely to head.

Otherwise known as a compression signal, triangulating trade, breakout trade etc.

Short signals are ****** in fear and are easier to run with, which is why I never go long unless under exceptional circumstances. Going long has an extra set of signals (support line) which in themselves can trigger a sell again.

Short signals are also good to remember as being for a short period of time, long signals, you need a long time.

 

Breakout !
Strength of the double bottom I mentioned earlier kicking in.

 

@Aaron Sice, @kitdoctor and @Phar Lap ,
Any ideas were one can learn how to do such technical analysis please?
Cheers

 

Oh wow, there is a myriad of courses out there.
For the record I started with a company called Safety In The Market nearly 20 years ago. They are still going but I got all I needed and have looked into many others since and basically formed my own opinion of what to look for at different times/scenarios.
Traditionally, the basics of todays charting stem from a few golden oldies such as W.D.Gann, Elliot and Benjamin Graham. Look them up, read them then approach it with some of the newer interpretations.
Safety in the Market was started by David Bowden who it's claimed was one of the very few who could crack the W.D.Gann code.
Once you have a handle on analysis, begin by practice trading something, a stock, currency or derivative and se how your forecasting skills develop.

Or there is also a myriad of pay for systems that spit out signals for you, so its up to you as to which way you go.

A member here, Alex Straker is also a bit of a guru, Hope this helps.

 

I couldn't help think of a game I used to play..

 

Unconfirmed. You need a second set of signals for a long.

 

It's all patterns.

I did the Platinum Pursuits course about 12 years ago now and his (her) tech was incredible.

I have modified it further for more reliable signals - especially going long which was the cause of a lot of my stop-outs early on.

 

Referring to the first chart I posted the contracting triangle is formed by the upper trend line passing through points (B) and (D) where point (D) occurs at some point in the future and the lower trend line passing through (A) and (C). You can see how the chart pattern is being confined to this triangle pattern where the trend lines are the sides of the triangle.

Within this larger pattern a smaller pattern is ongoing which is labelled A-B-C. For the larger pattern to remain acceptable B cannot break through the trend line (A) - (C). As this is what has occurred the assumed larger pattern needs to be corrected. A revised chart is attached.

 

Australian dollar heading to 60 US cents this year, warns economist

Don't complain too loud,but this is a balanced outlook at what might happen..

 

So forecasting AUD to hit 60 wow
I live in hope

 

At this point anything is possible , and no one knows what will happen..The ones that write about what will happen most times get it wrong a good lesson for all the politicians as there has been no massive swings against the aussie$$$ overnight..

 

I got this 60 from Jan, how is it now?
Anyone update please as the year we hit 60 in the past was the best year for my ip

 

No idea if it will hit 60. But it certainly seems to be trending south.

 

It may have been written in yesterdays AFR , but they were thinking there might be some good falls if the RBA was to drop interest rates.
Its a pretty big statement to send about consumer confidence ,and for all our wealth, much of it is only on paper and tied up in residential property.

 

Generally the currency is fairly closely tied to official interest rates. So yeah, a drop in the IR will generally trigger a drop in the AUD

 

But talk is interest rates will rise???

 

Reserve Bank to hold until 2020 according to Bill Mitchell Westpac on Froday the most accurate of all forecasters the past 5-6years. Mortgage rates may rise as result of sustained increased funding costs (See 3M BBSW)

A recent tweet thread from a Macro guy on this topic. Alex on Twitter

 

Ok. Thanks. Some good news for a change

 

Talk by who? Market doesn’t have any rate rises prices in.
Though, as poster above states, mortgage rates are likely to increase independently of the RBA due to increased funding costs.

Even if RBA moves down. Don’t hold your breath expecting to see the decrease in your mortgage rates.

Blacky

 

^^^ This.

And this expectation - that if the RBA holds, lenders will still increment consumer mortgage rates up, and should RBA increase rates; lenders will still increment consumer rates up (so, a damned if they hold, damned if they increase); could be another black swan event for mortgage holders unfortunately. I am a glass half full kinda guy on most days, but in 12 years of property investing Ive never seen such a frightening near-term outlook of variables:

- Labor in and investor-friendly policies crushed
- Apartment oversupply in 6 of 8 cap cities (Adding that Opal tower causing anti-apartment market sentiment)
- Chinese buyers (mostly) out
- Indian/Malay/Singaporeans not increasing enough to come near replacing Chinese buyer interest
- Tighter lending restrictions affecting both OO an INV buyer-types
- Flatlining wages growth and casualisation/gig-economy of workforce not properly reflected in our 'amazing official unemployment rate'
- Distorted measurement / view of nominal inflation (inflation is being pushed into areas of consumers lives that are not included in the official measurement)
- Trickle down of China/US/Global trade issues
- Interest rates as above

Did I miss any others?

Some PLEASE tell me where the silver lining is, I just don't see it. Most property markets in my humble speculative opinion based on a scan of the above undeniable factors; are in for negative to flat (at best) results over the medium term (next 3-8 years).

With all of this in mind, we need to stop ourselves and ask: is AU property REALLY the best asset class in the medium term for investing?

Maybe if the fall becomes a bloodbath (50%+ drop peak to trough); then yield-based plays will emerge?