Australian Dollar 2019

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Karina, 2nd Jan, 2019.

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  1. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    It’s fabulous for aussie mining stocks that sell their products based on USD contracted pricing but have an AUD cost base.
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    I guess if we look at historical data, what is the norm for AUD - 75??

    So what drives AUD down??

    Its a roller coaster ride... I am still betting it will hit 65, Jury is out
     
  3. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    Since year 2000 AUD has gone 50c to over $1.
    Wild swings in between.
    Im counting on nothing changing in that regard.

    What drives AUD down?
    Its small and can be pushed around wherever one likes. Good luck trying to pick a trend without getting bitten.
     
  4. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Iron ore prices is the biggest driver of AUD. And to a smaller extent coal prices and the usual GDP growth and employment numbers and rba rates
     
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  5. Dark Phoenix

    Dark Phoenix Active Member

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    Back to 71c compared to the greenback as of today. See! Only a short-term event.
     
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  6. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    Support of AUD on a macro chart is about 65c from Nov 2008.
     
  7. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    So you think it will hit 65
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    You realise AUD is on a downward trend
     
  9. Dark Phoenix

    Dark Phoenix Active Member

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    Cannot make any further comment without evidence.
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Just google what AUD was in 2018, 2017 and the trend, you will see its lower today and trending south

    Historical average 75-80????
     
  11. kitdoctor

    kitdoctor Well-Known Member

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    From a technical analysis perspective I was very bullish on the AUS$. It was forming a nice contracting triangle (A) - (B) - (C) - (D) - (E) confined by the shown trend lines. It then broke the lower trend line (area marked by ellipse). The contracting triangle may still hold because point (C) can be moved to where point B is. If the AUS$ falls below 0.6006 (i.e. the low at (A)) that will negate the revised pattern. You can also see how significant falls in $AUS have correlated with changes of PM. AUS$ to US$ exchange rate and PM changes and negated forecast January 2019.png
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Wow dizzy heights in 2011
    Dont understand the technical analysis but chart is interesting
     
  13. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    Its trending sideways, already gone south from 2011-2015 from whence it rose again until this time last year, then fell back to 2015 levels and now going sideways.

    I would go so far as to say its been trending sideways since the low of 2015-16 with a double bottom formed in almost exactly 3 years timeframe.

    aud_usd_2011_2019.jpeg
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    I just see the chart going south overall? Not getting the technical side
     
  15. lamecrocs

    lamecrocs Well-Known Member

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    With BHP about to pay out big special dividend, I'm hoping the AUD will go lower for that time!
     
  16. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean by "overall" ?
    The AUD goes up down and sideways overall.
    Currently its going sideways after a major downtrend has been completed look at the chart.
    It all depends on the timeframe you are looking at. I thought you'd know this sort of stuff?

    It could go either way from here. That can be said at anytime of course.
     
  17. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    @MTR thinking of selling a few in the US are you ? seeing AUD down to 65 would help
     
  18. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Very tempting
     
  19. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    If you are looking at anything short of 10 years on a long-term currency chart you aren't doing yourself any favours, you might as well trade FX.

    @kitdoctor has it right - a double bottom is in. A break down further could be the inverse of a typical FX trade where a higher low and a lower high is an incoming short signal, the opposite (a lower low and a higher high) is a incoming long signal.

    If you see that "B" pattern, you have a 6 week long signal ahead of you (which we do an are in now). When you see the "D", you have a 6 week short, and then "E" eventuates, go long until you trade out.
     
  20. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Another language to me:p:confused:
     
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